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    Published on May 17th, 2012

    The first phase of the European crisis was about the sustainability of budget deficits; this triggered the creation of the EFSF and ESM. The second phase of the crisis was about bank liquidity; this triggered the creation of the LTROs. This third phase of the crisis, however, is about the political willingness of southern Europe to remain “nailed to a cross of euros.” Indeed, as our friend Michael Cembalest put it recently in a missive to his clients: “By the time a member country sees a GDP decline that rivals the US Great Depression, suffers youth unemployment greater than 50% and elects communists and neo-nazis to its Parliament, something has gone horribly wrong”. A stark reality which brings us to the simple question confronting most of our readers every day; namely where do you put your stop-loss? After all, almost every money manager we have ever met comes into a position with a stop-loss; a...
    Published on May 17th, 2012

    India seems to be going out of its way to chase away investors. Multinationals are being slapped with retroactive tax bills, government spending remains incontinent, and structural reform efforts are stalled. This is not the way to boost confidence after industrial production fell –3.5% YoY in March and inflation rose to 7.2%. With the rupee down over 10% since February to new lows against the USD, foreign investors are heeding the message and heading for the exit; the BSE Sensex 30 is 11% lower as a result. But are things really as terrible as they seem?...

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    Published on May 16th, 2012

    Amid the sturm and drang in Europe this week, sunny numbers from Germany have gone almost unnoticed. GDP rose +0.5% QoQ and +1.7% YoY during the first quarter, well above consensus expectations of +0.1% QoQ and +0.9% YoY. While this is a preliminary report and thus short on details, the German statistical office explained that the recovery was driven mainly by net trade. But how is this possible given the extreme weakness in Europe’s southern economies? The answer lies both in Asia and in Eastern Europe. Consider the following points...
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