Published on May 17th, 2012
The first phase of the European crisis was about the sustainability of budget deficits; this triggered the creation of the EFSF and ESM. The second phase of the crisis was about bank liquidity; this triggered the creation of the LTROs. This third phase of the crisis, however, is about the political willingness of southern Europe to remain “nailed to a cross of euros.” Indeed, as our friend Michael Cembalest put it recently in a missive to his clients: “By the time a member country sees a GDP decline that rivals the US Great Depression, suffers youth unemployment greater than 50% and elects communists and neo-nazis to its Parliament, something has gone horribly wrong”. A stark reality which brings us to the simple question confronting most of our readers every day; namely where do you put your stop-loss? After all, almost every money manager we have ever met comes into a position with a stop-loss; a...