Most recent
Gavekal Research
Video: Indian Resilience In A Trade War
Udith Sikand
5 Jun 2025
Amid a global trade war, India gives the impression of being a port in the storm. In this video interview, Udith discusses whether this is really so.
Gavekal Research
India Macro Update: Hold The Confetti
Udith Sikand, Tom Miller
5 Jun 2025
India’s economy is in the early stage of a cyclical recovery enabled by supportive policy settings. Sustaining the positive momentum will, however, be tricky, say Udith and Tom. A continued recovery in domestic consumption is encouraging, but external uncertainty could dampen sentiment and weigh on investment.
Gavekal Research
Readying For Bank Deregulation
Tan Kai Xian
5 Jun 2025
Late Wednesday the US Senate approved light-touch advocate Michelle Bowman as the Federal Reserve’s vice-chair for banking supervision. Now Bowman is confirmed in her post, the Trump administration’s delayed program of banking deregulation can go into full swing.
Gavekal Research
A Q&A On Hong Kong
Louis-Vincent Gave
4 Jun 2025
In early May, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority flooded the banking system with local currency liquidity, helping to drive Hibor interest rates to a record discount to US dollar rates. This did no harm at all to sentiment in the local stock market, which continued its 17-month rally. In this paper, Louis answers a series of questions about the state of Hong Kong’s markets and their outlook for the future.
Gavekal Dragonomics
The Fading Boost From Consumer Subsidies
Ernan Cui
Payment In The Time Of Sanctions
Xiaoxi Zhang
Limits To The Export Shock Absorber
Christopher Beddor
The Wrong Kind Of Competition
Andrew Batson, Ernan Cui, Tilly Zhang
State Developers Start To Stabilize
Xiaoxi Zhang
Growth Momentum Falters
Wei He, Dragonomics Team
Exports And Equities After The Ceasefire
Thomas Gatley
Carefully Controlling Appreciation
Wei He
Expropriation, Law, And Incentives
Andrew Batson
A Cautious Cut
Wei He
More research
Good News To Make You Happy From The JGB Market
Charles Gave
China’s New Back Door To Europe
Tom Miller
The Implications Of Trump’s Remittance Tax
Tan Kai Xian, Udith Sikand
Ending US Exceptionalism: Regime Change Or Cyclical Blip?
Anatole Kaletsky
Back To The Brink
Arthur Kroeber
Geoeconomic Monitor: Iran’s Politics Could Derail Nuclear Deal
Charlie Gammell
Video: Europe's Construction Recovery
August Gudmundsson
Wringing The Golden Goose’s Neck
Louis-Vincent Gave
Webinar: Tomorrow's Outperformance
Louis-Vincent Gave, Anatole Kaletsky, Will Denyer
Checks And Balances?
Will Denyer
Gavekal Research
Global Strategy: Investing After Exceptionalism
Will Denyer, Tan Kai Xian, Udith Sikand, Thomas Gatley, Cedric Gemehl
30 Apr 2025
The first four months of 2025 have seen a succession of shocks severely damage the narrative of US exceptionalism that has prevailed in global financial markets for the last few years. In this strategy chartbook, Gavekal analysts examine what this diminution of belief in the US means for US markets, and look at which assets and markets outside the US stand to benefit and which to avoid.
Checking The Boxes
Our short take on the latest news
Fact
Surprise
Takeaway
US ISM services PMI fell to 49.9 in May, from 51.6 in Apr
Below expected 52
Drop in new orders and surge in prices indicate tariffs are weighing on the services sector
US ADP employment rose 37k in May, versus 60k in Apr
Below expected 114k
Mixed signals from job market data, but no sign of recession yet
Japanese labor cash earnings rose 2.3% YoY in Apr, the same pace as in Mar
Slower than 2.6% expected; real cash earnings fell -1.8% YoY in Apr, the same pace as in Mar
Continued uptrend in base wages likely to keep BoJ on current tightening path
Canada left benchmark rate unchanged at 2.75%
As expected
Dovish tone from BoC indicates further rate cuts to be expected
Test Your Knowledge
In 2023, 6.40% of all motor vehicles sold in India were electric. What was the share in 2024?
- 5.56%
- 7.62%
- 12.70%
Chart of the Week
Deep within the “One Big, Beautiful Bill” that is currently making its way through the legislative process of the US Congress is a provision to tax overseas remittances. With the US economy acting as the source for nearly 20% of global remittances, the fallout from this tax will be felt abroad.
Open Chart
Gavekal Research
Essential Reading: A Book For Every Week Of The Year
Gavekal is often asked for a recommended reading list. So, here it is: a book a week that everyone interested in the world of macro investing—whether hoary veteran or eager apprentice—can benefit from reading.
Gavekal Research
Webinar: Tomorrow's Outperformance
Louis-Vincent Gave, Anatole Kaletsky, Will Denyer
30 May 2025
For years, all investors needed was an overweight position in big US tech stocks balanced with a holding in long-dated US treasuries. Those days are over. So far in 2025, US tech stocks and US treasuries are both down, while select asset classes in Europe, Latin America and Asia have delivered handsome double-digit US dollar returns. In this webinar, Gavekal partners Louis Gave, Anatole Kaletsky and Will Denyer considered whether US markets can regain their mojo, or whether non-US assets will continue to outperform.
Tariff Troubles
Video: Indian Resilience In A Trade War
Amid a global trade war, India gives the impression of being a port in the storm. In this video interview, Udith discusses whether this is really so.
Back To The Brink
Fresh hostilities between the US and China show that the many questions left hanging after the Geneva ceasefire in mid-May still have no satisfactory answers. It is not clear if US trade policy is run by President Donald Trump, his trade negotiators or the national security team, and the overall objectives are as muddled as ever. Arthur examines the obstacles to a deal between the two economies.
Checks And Balances?
A US federal court ruled unanimously on Wednesday to strike down most of Donald Trump’s new tariffs. Is this the end of the trade war? Is the US system of “checks and balances”
providing the sort of rule of law we were promised in elementary school? Or is this ruling nothing more than a nuisance and a delay for the administration? Unfortunately for investors hoping for trade peace, this ruling will most likely only slow Trump down.
Tax Cuts Versus Tariff Hikes
US equities and treasuries brushed off Moody’s rating downgrade of US sovereign debt as old news and inconsequential. What does matter for investors is how negotiations over the domestic budget and, separately, import tariffs play out—and their effect on US budget deficits.
US economy & markets
Readying For Bank Deregulation
Late Wednesday the US Senate approved light-touch advocate Michelle Bowman as the Federal Reserve’s vice-chair for banking supervision. Now Bowman is confirmed in her post, the Trump administration’s delayed program of banking deregulation can go into full swing.
The Implications Of Trump’s Remittance Tax
Since the breakdown of the Bretton Woods currency system in the 1970s, it has become an article of faith for neoliberal economists that capital controls should be avoided. This is not a view that US President Donald Trump is signed up to. Buried within his “big, beautiful bill” already passed by the House of Representatives and now sitting with the Senate lies a provision that signals the end of full capital mobility for the US economy.
Checks And Balances?
A US federal court ruled unanimously on Wednesday to strike down most of Donald Trump’s new tariffs. Is this the end of the trade war? Is the US system of “checks and balances”
providing the sort of rule of law we were promised in elementary school? Or is this ruling nothing more than a nuisance and a delay for the administration? Unfortunately for investors hoping for trade peace, this ruling will most likely only slow Trump down.
Taxing The US Capital Account
The US Congress is working on a budget expected to greatly raise budget deficits, perhaps overwhelming the tax take from new tariffs in the coming decade. Given shaky foreign demand for US assets, we were already concerned that the bond market might not react well to an expansionary budget. Now, we find more reasons within the budget bill itself to fret.
China chartbook
Gavekal Dragonomics
Macro Update: Managing The Trade Chaos
Andrew Batson, Dragonomics Team
6 May 2025
China’s attempt to stabilize its economy has been rudely interrupted by the sudden escalation of the US-China trade conflict into a near-embargo. No one thinks the current 100%+ tariffs are sustainable, but the off-ramp is not yet obvious. China’s government had already planned for a substantial fiscal stimulus, and has made clear it is prepared to do more if needed—but is not rushing to act. In our latest quarterly chartbook, Andrew and the Dragonomics team assess the economic fundamentals and explains China’s policy options for managing the trade chaos.
India chartbook
Gavekal Research
India Macro Update: Hold The Confetti
Udith Sikand, Tom Miller
5 Jun 2025
India’s economy is in the early stage of a cyclical recovery enabled by supportive policy settings. Sustaining the positive momentum will, however, be tricky, say Udith and Tom. A continued recovery in domestic consumption is encouraging, but external uncertainty could dampen sentiment and weigh on investment.
Latest video
Gavekal Research
Video: Indian Resilience In A Trade War
Udith Sikand
5 Jun 2025
Amid a global trade war, India gives the impression of being a port in the storm. In this video interview, Udith discusses whether this is really so.
Strategy Chartbook
Gavekal Research
Global Strategy: Investing After Exceptionalism
Will Denyer, Tan Kai Xian, Udith Sikand, Thomas Gatley, Cedric Gemehl
30 Apr 2025
The first four months of 2025 have seen a succession of shocks severely damage the narrative of US exceptionalism that has prevailed in global financial markets for the last few years. In this strategy chartbook, Gavekal analysts examine what this diminution of belief in the US means for US markets, and look at which assets and markets outside the US stand to benefit and which to avoid.
Emerging markets
Video: Are EMs Back?
It’s been a good quarter for the broad emerging markets complex. The MSCI EM index has returned almost 7% in US dollar terms, while US equities are down by some -3.5%. So should investors jump on the EM train? Udith points out that there is a wide divergence in the performance of individual emerging markets, and the threat of tariffs hangs heavy over EM corporate earnings. Investors need to be selective.
Video: Southeast Asia Under Trump 2.0
Global investors are rightly focused on the potential losers from the United States pursuing an aggressively protectionist trade policy agenda, but there may be winners as well. Tom went in search of such economies last week. Today he explains how such “swing states” are likely to perform in an intensified period of great power rivalry between the US and China.
China Turbocharges EM Investment
As the rich world pulls up the protectionist drawbridge, investors risk missing a bigger story
in emerging markets. Here, Chinese outbound investment is rebounding after the fallow Covid years, and is driving a new wave of industrialization that promises to lower the cost of the green-energy transition.
Why This Time Has Been Different
During past episodes of risk-off volatility, the correlation between emerging market risk assets has shot up. But early August’s bout of market volatility saw a bifurcation in EMs, and no broader macroeconomic spillover effects—which speaks well of the growing maturity of emerging markets as an asset class.
Europe's economy
Ending US Exceptionalism: Regime Change Or Cyclical Blip?
Usually, the short-term economic outlook—where unemployment will be next month, or growth next quarter—is quite certain. And long-term trends are nicely predictable. It is the mid-term that confounds forecasters. Donald Trump has turned all this on its head. No one has clue about the short term. And the long run is any one’s guess. But paradoxically, argues Anatole, the medium-term outlook is unusually clear—it’s just that financial markets have not yet priced in this clarity.
Gaming The Transatlantic Trade War
Investors will take comfort from Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen having agreed on Sunday to extend talks until July 9, with the US president saying his 50% tariff threat will be held in abeyance. The issue seems to be that the two sides are talking past each other. The EU speaks of pursuing “strategic patience” and complains that the US is
making maximalist demands rather than properly negotiating.
The EU’s Difficult Trade Rebalancing
The final form of Donald Trump’s tariffs remain a work in progress but, at the very least, the US’s trade with the rest of the world is set to involve more friction. For the European Union, one strategy to mitigate the hit is to lessen trade encumbrances with other economies. Cedric crunches the numbers and argues that these efforts will be a salve, not a panacea for the EU's trade troubles if China is not involved.
How The EU Is Playing Trump’s Tariffs
Like any kid facing team selection in the school playground, the European Union must now be fretting that it will be picked last. After the United States announced a trade deal with Britain on May 8 and agreed a deescalation with China over tariffs on May 12, the EU has been left at the back of the negotiating line with the Americans, says Cedric. In this piece, he explores its approach and its bottom line in any standoff.
Currencies
Good News To Make You Happy From The JGB Market
Carefully Controlling Appreciation
Asia’s Potential Repatriation Flows
One Country, Two Currencies
Conversation: The Six Sigma Event In Asian Forex
Yen Strength Is Here To Stay
Oil & commodities
Back To The Sanctions Weapon
Crude Perversions
Video: Oil Market Game Theory
Geoeconomic Monitor: The Tariff Power-Play
What We Don’t Talk About When We Talk About Ukraine
The Upside Surprise In Commodity Demand
