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E.g., 21-10-2021
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    Gavekal Research

    Conventional Wisdom vs The March Of Events

    Over the past few months, we have had one of our young, intrepid analysts, Gavin Bowring, run around Asia and report from places investors do not always hear about. Gavin has penned missives from Inside a North Korean “SEZ”, explained how Bank Indonesia Bets On Growth, detailed The Window of Opportunity in the Philippines as well as The Reforms in Myanmar. Over the coming months, he will publish a couple of pieces on Mongolia and Vietnam....

    1
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Telescope Versus The Microscope

    There is more than the usual amount of disagreement about China’s economic prospects at the moment. More notable than the accustomed battle between bulls and bears is a split between those focusing on the top-down macro picture, which is not terrible, and those who highlight ugly reports of businesses shutting down and borrowers scrambling for cash.

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    Gavekal Research

    Quarterly Strategy Chart Book: How To Survive A Panic Attack

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    Gavekal Research

    Please-No More Liquidity Fixes--by Will Denyer

    As we hear talk of a global central bank coordinated action to solve Europe’s market malaise, we have to ask, to what purpose? Large liquidity injections once served to keep Europe’s financial system alive until the continent’s economies sputtered back to life. The problem is, this never happened. Now the ECB’s substantial liquidity programs instead serve the purpose of providing leaders more stall time before acting. The monetary union is...

    4
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    Gavekal Research

    The Swiss Line In The Sand

    3
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q2 2012 - Books

    China’s spectacular economic rise over the past decade has generated a great deal of strategic anxiety in foreign capitals and particularly in Washington DC. A thriving cottage industry has sprung up around trum*peting the ominous import of China’s military build-up and Beijing’s supposed intent to remake or upset the world order. Many such fore*casts—often driven by bureaucratic imperatives to justify ever-larger defense budgets—rely on...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q2 2012 - Auto industry competitiveness

    In January 2012, violent protests erupted at Changhe Automobile’s factory in Jiangxi province. Two thousand workers downed tools and raised fists in an attempt to block plans by Chang’an Automotive, Changhe’s much larger parent company, to move all production of Suzuki-branded cars from Jiangxi to its main car factory in Chongqing, 1,000 km away. The protest came just two years after the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) hailed...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q2 2012 - Private firms

    For years, China’s vibrant private sector firms have faced all sorts of dis­crimination: difficulty getting bank loans, high interest rates on the loans that are available, extortion by corrupt officials, outright nationalization, bans from investing in certain sectors, and rapacious competition from subsidized state-owned enterprises (SOEs). Despite all this, the private sector has steadily increased its share of economic output. But many...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q2 2012 - Consumer demographics

    On summer evenings, once every other week, central Beijing grinds to a halt. Around the Workers Stadium—erected in 1959 to mark the 10th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic—the gray capital turns green, as thousands of Beijing Guo’an football fans throng the streets. More than 40,000 emerald-shirted supporters regularly watch Guo’an, the Chinese Super League’s best-supported team. In most respects, the scene is unremarkable: any...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q2 2012 - Labor Force

    China’s population is aging. After more than three decades of force­ful family-planning policies, including the one-child policy, the share of children and young adults in China’s population is shrinking. At the same time, the population growth rate has slowed and people are living to much older ages. Conventional wisdom holds that this dramatic demo­graphic shift bodes ill for China’s economy: a growing labor shortage will damage...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q2 2012 - Capital Markets

    After a whirlwind start, is Guo Shuqing’s reform tornado blowing out? No. The new chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) continues to push ahead with long-needed policies to re-ener­gize China’s stock market. The plan to allow foreign companies to list on a new international board may have stalled—but that was always going to be hard to sell to China’s nationalistic leaders, and was of dubious value in any case. Instead,...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q2 2012 - Property

    For the past two years, the broad of aim of China’s restrictive property poli­cies has been simple—to make housing more affordable. The government’s approach has been to squeeze demand at the top of the market and boost supply at the bottom. Have these measures succeeded? For the vast major­ity of native urbanites, the answer is yes. In 2010, the price-to-income ratio in big cities exceeded nine; this year it should fall to near seven. The major...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q2 2012 - Metals Man: Screwing Up In Foreign Climes

    When China launched its “Go Out” policy in 1999, leaders hoped state-owned enterprises (SOEs) would snap up valuable foreign assets and transform themselves into successful multinationals. In the mining sec*tor, China’s national champions have become powerful international investors—yet they have also wasted billions of dollars on ill-conceived projects, often exacerbated by poor management. To take three examples, the cost of CITIC Pacific’s...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q2 2012 - Chinese Exports

    As any casual visitor to the “Made in China” aisles in Wal-Mart or Car­refour can attest, China’s prosperity has relied heavily on the export of cheap consumer goods to rich countries. But the image of China’s export­ers as a phalanx of sweatshops churning out T-shirts and toys for Ameri­can and European shoppers is outdated. Most of the growth in Chinese exports now comes from industrial goods—earth movers, telecoms net­work gear, construction...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q2 2012 - Economic Survey

    China’s economy continued to slow noticeably in the early part of 2012. Headline GDP growth of 8.1% year on year in the first quarter, down from 8.9% in the final quarter of 2011, was lower than market forecasts—though close to our own more modest expectations. In quarter-on-quarter terms, annualized real growth probably slowed to 6-7% in the first quarter from around 9% in the second half of 2011. On either metric, this was China’s weakest GDP...

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    Gavekal Research

    The Unfolding Panic & The European Convergence Trade

    9
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek - Weak Currency, Weak Growth

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ: Demographics

    Profound demographic changes are redrawing the parameters of China’s future. These changes have already begun to affect the Chinese economy, and pose a serious risk to future economic growth, social harmony and political stability. How serious are the demographic challenges facing China, and what can be done to lessen their impact?

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Demographic Transition: Racing Toward The Precipice

    China’s demographic bullet train is racing into the unknown. Its carriages are already full, but more passengers squeeze in every minute. Most are not young, productive workers, but older travelers who cannot pay for their ride. No one knows where the train will stop, nor whether it will arrive safely.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q2 2012 - Family-planning policy

    For thousands of years, Chinese women were expected to raise large families. In the 1950s and 60s, this cultural expectation became national policy: as Mao Zedong called for “more people, more power,” China’s population surged from around 400m to 700m. Yet that all changed in the 1970s, as tough family-planning policies were introduced to curb excessive population growth. These policies hardened into the biggest demographic experiment of all...

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