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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek - Reformist Rhetoric Revives

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    Gavekal Research

    Not Drowning But Waving

    The workings of China’s interbank market have grabbed an unusual amount of attention recently, thanks to the enormous open market operations carried out by the central bank. In the month of October alone, the central bank injected Rmb1.1 trn into the interbank market through reverse repurchase agreements. Yet this surge does not indicate, as some fear, that the central bank is panicking about growth and desperately pumping liquidity into the...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Japan: Good For A Bounce

    Japanese equities are rallying. The Nikkei gained over 8% in the last week, a relative outperformance of 5 percentage points compared to the US and key markets in Asia, while the yen has fallen 6%. Investor interest has been revived by hopes of an aggressive monetary and fiscal easing if the LDP returns to power in upcoming snap elections (see Sayonara Deflation...). We expect further upward pressure on equities, and downward pressure on the yen...

    1
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Biggest Migration In Human History

    The journey from farm to city is the story of China’s transformation from a poor and backward country to a global economic superpower. By 2030, when China’s urban population is projected to swell to 1 billion, its cities will be home to one in every eight people on earth. How China’s urban billion live will shape the future of the world.

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    Gavekal Research

    Deficit Deniers Of The World Unite

    In our politically correct age the pressure to bow down before certain popularly accepted and apparently proven “truths” can be overwhelming. In the aftermath of the US elections, two such nostrums are unnecessarily vexing investors—the urgency of deficit reduction and fear of higher taxes. I believe that both of these obsessions will soon be forgotten—and as a result equity markets will be stronger in 2013 than generally expected.

    18
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    Gavekal Research

    And Meanwhile In Iceland

    The negotiations over the latest “extend and pretend” deal in Greece is, as usual, focusing on to what degree the economy should be strangled as retribution for past financial sins. According to the logic of the geniuses who created the euro, the population of Greece — as well as Spain, Ireland, France, Italy, Portugal, etc — has to suffer because there is "no other solution.”

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    Gavekal Research

    Aa1 Mes Amis! - Francois Chauchat

    There is a distinctly Gallic reason for Donizetti’s “La fille du regiment” receiving a warm reception at the Paris Opera this autumn: each act ends with a resounding “Cocorico” at the same time as a giant picture of a proudly posturing rooster falls on the stage. Success guaranteed. Unfortunately, a perusal of the economic press the following morning will remind audiences that the Paris Opera is one of the few places where unabashed national...

    14
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    Gavekal Research

    Bernanke Turning Hawkish?

    Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke rattled markets yesterday when he explained why the potential growth rate of the US economy appears to have declined while the structural unemployment rate has risen. The initial reaction from equity markets was negative, for an obvious reason: If the chairman is now raising his target unemployment rate, this implies a shorter shelf-life for extremely easy monetary policies.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Reaching The Housing Peak

    China’s housing boom reached new heights in 2010-11, on the back of a huge monetary stimulus and a new low-income housing program. The fading of this construction boom is clearly a big part of the sharp slowdown in China’s growth in 2012. But there remains a huge backlog of housing under construction that will hit the market over the next few years. Assessing the scale of this coming wave of housing supply is difficult because of inconsistent...

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    Gavekal Research

    India's Fiscal Fantasies

    After a fall full of hope that reforms would put India back into the stratosphere of growth, it is time to get real. Measures announced in September may have boosted sentiment, but they have a negligible impact on growth (see India: Reforms On A Knife Edge for details). Now focus has shifted to new promises to rein in the fiscal deficit, a vital economic issue as the ballooning deficit has stoked inflation and the cost of money. But these...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek - Xi Rides The Turning Cycle

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    Gavekal Research

    Corruption And Party Control

    6
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    Gavekal Research

    Chinese Equities: Next Generation Leaders

    China’s economy looks to have averted the much feared hard landing, but the country’s equity markets have not. The MSCI China A-Share index is down -32% since the start of 2010, while its offshore equivalent has lost about -11%. Investors have fretted over the sustainability of high octane investment-driven growth, the profitability of banks and infrastructure-building firms that thrived during the last decade, and ever present corporate...

    4
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    Gavekal Research

    Sayonara Deflation, Konnichiwa Yen Carry-Trade? - by Louis Gave

    Jesper Koll of JP Morgan once wrote that there are two simple rules to remember when investing in Japan. The first is to never underestimate the amount of pain that the Japanese population can endure. The second is to never underestimate the Japanese policymakers' ability to test the first rule. Nothing that has occurred in recent years challenges this observation. From the Japanese government’s hapless reaction to last year’s tsunami, to...

    3
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    Gavekal Research

    US Tax Changes In A Brave New World

    It is a common complaint that US corporations are sitting on exceptional piles of cash, while the domestic economy experiences lackluster growth in capital spending and employment. With weak growth comes lower tax revenues. As such, policymakers are looking at new ways to raise revenues from corporates and from individuals (mostly the wealthiest). But we live in a “Brave New World” of global operations, fragmented supply chains, and light,...

    3
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    Gavekal Research

    High Hopes For China's New Team

    Just before noon in Beijing, seven men in dark suits walked out in front of a horde of cameras, stood stiffly while their names were read out and their leader gave a speech, and then retreated from view. There was no shaking of hands, no thanking of supporters. This is how the world’s second-largest economy presented its new top leadership: the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the 18th Central Committee of the Communist Party of...

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    Gavekal Research

    Bubble Trouble Averted-- Maybe

    The spillover effect of extraordinarily loose US monetary policy has provided a similar dilemma for both the Hong Kong and Singapore governments. Over the last two years, property prices in both financial centers have hit new highs, resulting in increased social tensions and fears of brewing bubbles. Added to the mix, money has poured into bricks and mortar from well-heeled investors in their immediate economic hinterland regions. As a result,...

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    Gavekal Research

    The Benefits Of A Receding Hairline

    One of the few benefits of getting old is that one gets to say: “I’ve seen this all before.” Take the current over-indebtedness of most Western democracies today. This is a situation that anyone with hair growing where one does not want it and not growing where one would like it to, has seen before. And not that long ago. Indeed:

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Shifting Up A Gear

    China’s major economic indicators for October improved across the board, offering more signs that growth is stabilizing after the sharp correction earlier this year. The stabilization is mainly driven by easier monetary policy and a recovering housing market, but even exports are doing better than expected. October’s indicators confirm the turning point in the September data (see The Storm Is Passing Over), and we expect the data to keep...

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    Gavekal Research

    Have Chinese Equity Markets Bottomed?

    The mid-September announcement of QE3 led many investors to pile into risk assets. However, since then, almost all equity markets have traded sideways to down. Almost all except for Chinese stocks quoted in Hong Kong. Indeed, since recording a trough on September 5th, the Hang Seng Index has rallied 11% and the H-Share index 14%. So is this a case of every dog having its day? Or have Chinese equities made a genuine bottom? To answer this...

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