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E.g., 29-11-2021
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    Gavekal Research

    Yield Differentials Matter—For Now

    As the first quarter draws to a close, the US dollar has confounded December’s bearish consensus expectations by generating a positive total return versus the euro of 3.8%. As Louis and Will and KX explained last week, in retrospect the US dollar’s performance over the last three months is not that surprising. The question now is: how long will these near-term factors persist?

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    Like A Hell-Broth Boil And Bubble

    Last week began with a -15% fall in the Turkish lira in Asian trading on Monday morning. This week started with a -16% fall in the share price of Nomura in Asian trading on Monday morning. It would be easy to dismiss the two events as entirely unrelated. At first glance they have nothing in common, but in this piece Tom takes a closer look.

    4
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Speeding Ahead On Vaccination

    China administered over 3mn doses of Covid-19 vaccines on Thursday, accelerating its vaccination drive from around 1mn doses per day in February and 2mn per day last week. In this Quick Take, Ernan explains why this acceleration is not enough to meet the country’s vaccination targets, as the government’s main hurdle is not production but logistics.

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    Gavekal Research

    When Will Borders Reopen?

    Even as a new Covid wave sweeps across Europe, the European Union has gotten to work on a Digital Green Certificate to allow resumption of travel, within the bloc and beyond. Health passports that securely document vaccines and test results for travelers are key to opening up borders again. But as Tom explains, getting countries to agree on rules and standards will be a painful slog.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Rewind To Look Ahead

    There has hardly been a single piece of news in the last three months that could have been construed as euro-bullish. And yes, the euro has weakened. But given the newsflow, it is remarkable that the euro is not down a whole lot more. So, considering the newsflow and the 200bp spread between 10 year treasuries and bunds, why hasn’t the US dollar rallied more?

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: The Future Of The Great US Rotation

    Much has happened in the US in the last eight weeks. More than 80mn Americans have been vaccinated against Covid, Congress has passed a stimulus bill worth 9% of GDP, and the Fed has confirmed its determination to remain among the most peaceable of inflation doves. In response, 10-year US treasury yields have leapt, and the rotation from growth stocks to value has grown more violent even as the broad equity market has ascended new heights. In...

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: Pushing Less Hard On The String

    Concluding a long-awaited policy review, last week the Bank of Japan signaled that after almost a decade of pursuing titanic quantitative easing targets, it will be looking to make fewer asset purchases from now on. In this short video interview, Udith weighs the implications for Japan’s economy, its bond market, the yen, and Japanese equities.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    For Want Of A Chip

    China’s car market is starting to show the first effects of the global chip scarcity, but Thomas and Ernan write that the shortage might just be starting to bite. Supply could resume by Q3, but even a temporary drag on auto production will have material consequences for China’s industrial sector and the economy at large.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    The Future’s Clear, The Future’s Green

    Europe’s Green parties used to be denigrated by their political opponents as “watermelons”: green environmentalists on the surface, red hard-leftists beneath. In Germany, this attempt to marginalize the Greens by associating them with the discredited revolutionary socialists of 50 years ago failed dismally. Having established their credibility in regional politics, notably in Germany’s third richest state of Baden-Württemberg, where they have...

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    Financial Manias: The Crypto Craze

    After scrutinizing the electric car craze last week, today Louis turns his gimlet eye on crypto-currencies. Yes, bitcoin now has a market capitalization of US$1trn, but what does it actually do? What value does it add to economies and societies? On close examination, Louis finds that the functions of bitcoin are relatively straightforward, if not particularly edifying. And more to the point, they are already attracting the sort of attention that...

    18
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    Gavekal Research

    The Short And Long For The US Dollar

    After ending 2020 amid heavily negative sentiment, the US dollar has confounded near-term bears by edging higher year-to-date. The DXY dollar index has gained 2.75%, clawing back just over a third of its -7.5% decline in 2020. Perhaps this should not be too surprising. First, by the end of 2020, the US dollar was no longer blatantly overvalued. Second, the DXY found support at 90, its low of early 2018. Third, the near-term outlook for nominal...

    2
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Slowing Down Steel Production

    Policymakers have pledged to “ensure a year-on-year decline” in steel output this year to help China achieve peak carbon-dioxide emissions by 2030, but these curbs will not reduce the country’s underlying demand for steel. In this report, Rosealea analyzes the feasibility of this target and its consequences for the steel industry.

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    Gavekal Research

    The Strengthening Case For Value

    In the last two weeks, US value stocks have given up some of the outperformance relative to growth that they racked up over the previous five. So has value’s spurt of outperformance now run its course, leaving the S&P 500 value index’s 11pp of outperformance relative to growth since the beginning of February as just a counter-trend blip against a backdrop of more than a decade’s underperformance? Or are the relative gains in value since the...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    The Extent Of Turkish Contagion Risk

    After four and a half months in which Turkish central bank governor Naci Ağbal had raised policy rates and restored a measure of confidence in the Turkish lira, on Saturday Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan fired Agbal and replaced him with a loyalist who has echoed the president’s conviction that higher interest rates lead to higher inflation.

    1
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    What Strategic Competition Looks Like

    Last week’s diplomatic meeting between China and the US was marked by harsh rhetoric as both sides used the event to signal toughness to their home audiences. In this report, Arthur and Dan outline what policy tools Beijing and Washington have at their disposal and why the Biden administration is struggling to articulate a clear China strategy.

    1
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    Gavekal Research

    Weak Links No Longer

    Once upon a time, a steep rise in US yields coupled with capital outflows—like those we’ve seen in recent weeks—would have led to intense financial stresses in Asian emerging markets. Weak-link economies with fragile fiscal positions and precarious external balances would have been vulnerable to abrupt sell-offs and destabilizing currency depreciation. As sentiment swung risk-off, investors would have gotten badly trampled in the rush for the...

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Webinar: Making Sense Of China’s Grand Plans

    The annual session of China's National People's Congress has wrapped up with the approval of a new five-year plan, a sweeping document that promises not only technological self-sufficiency but a different style of economic management in coming years. In this webinar, our China experts unpacked what these grand promises really mean, and also discussed the substantial recent correction in Chinese equities and where markets are headed...

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    Gavekal Research

    Financial Manias: The Electric Car Craze

    Almost wherever you look today, there are bubbles: in SPACs, in crypto, and in electric vehicles. In this report, the first of a series on today’s financial manias, Louis reviews Gavekal’s tried and tested framework for analyzing bubbles, and applies it to today’s mania for electric vehicles. He concludes that the electric car bubble is unique in history, and that the prognosis for many investors in the sector is less than encouraging.

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    Gavekal Research

    Markets After The Fed

    The Federal Reserve saw no need to ease monetary policy any further at its March meeting which concluded Wednesday. That’s no surprise. Policy is already extremely easy, and growth and inflation are already looking up. Indeed, the Fed has pumped so much money into the system that the one policy change it felt compelled to make was to increase counterparty limits on its reverse repo facility from US$30bn to US$80bn in response to concerns that...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Video: Conflicting Forces In The Hong Kong Market

    The Hong Kong stock market started 2021 as one of the world’s best performing, gaining 14% in the first six weeks of the year. In the weeks since, however, Hong Kong-listed equities have given back half those gains as sentiment has soured. In this short video interview, Vincent weighs the opposing forces at work in the local market to assess how they are likely to play out in the future.

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