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E.g., 23-06-2021
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    Gavekal Research

    Either Steeper, Or Much Steeper

    Hopes of an early vaccine rollout mean that investors are now looking beyond rising coronavirus infection rates in the US towards an end to the pandemic in 2021. The resulting improved business and consumer confidence will favor stronger activity next year, and therefore a steepening of the US yield curve driven by higher long term bond yields. On top of this, there is an appreciable probability that the Democrats could yet capture the Senate in...

    9
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Race To Decouple

    Both the US and China now seem eager to reduce their mutual economic dependencies. However, such a process is different for either country: Dan explains that China’s reliance on the US is narrow and technical in scope while American dependence on China is more wide-ranging. The US therefore faces more complex challenges in the “race” to decouple.

    7
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    Gavekal Research

    Turning The Page On 2020?

    Monday’s vaccine news from Pfizer raises the prospect that along with the US election, investors will soon be able to stop worrying about Covid-19. Suddenly the hope that economic activity can return to normal no longer sounds absurdly Pollyannaish. This about-turn not only triggered a sharp reversal in a bunch of market prices, it also raised a host of questions.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Housing & Construction Review 2020

    China’s property sector led the rebound from Covid-19 lockdown, but how long can the new boom last? In her annual chartbook, Rosealea explains the outlook for 2021 after a very volatile 2020. Housing policy has turned tighter after signs of overheating, which points to sales flattening and construction activity declining next year.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Markets And The Split Between American Trees And American Boats

    The aftermath of the US election points to deep distrust between America’s two great political tribes that could yet become a concern for investors. Charles worries that betrayal narratives in the US may lead to the Federal Reserve printing even more money in order to paper over the cracks of division.

    7
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    Gavekal Research

    Pricing The Post-Election World

    For once, everything went according to plan. The US election has passed without any big surprises—and the initial market reaction has been exactly what would be predicted in any textbook of finance, when a centrist and predictable conventional politician replaces an extreme and erratic populist as US president.

    2
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Fine-Tuning The US-China Rivalry

    In almost no area of the US-China relationship can President-elect Biden fully reverse the combative approach President Trump has put in place. Instead, writes Arthur, the Biden administration will likely fine-tune regulations to balance US economic and security interests, all while working closer with US allies—none of which will be easy.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Let’s Build A Second Maginot Line!

    With the coronavirus endemic in Europe, the new anti-Covid lockdowns being imposed by governments across the region, including in France, Germany and the UK, make about as much sense as a second, smaller, Maginot line would have done back in 1943 when the Germans were firmly entrenched in France.

    23
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    Gavekal Research

    US Election Points To A Bullish Result

    The US election is tilting towards a denouement but a categorical result may not be known for weeks. That uncertainty is not good for Americans’ nerves but should not especially trouble investors. More impactful will be policy changes (or maybe the lack of them) that flow from the result. US equities, and growth stocks especially, have been buoyed by the chance of a Joe Biden presidency and split Congress.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Video: China's Grand Plan For The Next Two Decades

    While the US has been busy tying itself in knots over the 2020 presidential election, the Chinese government, with no electoral calendar to worry about, has quietly been setting out its grand strategy for the country’s development over the next two decades. In this video, Gilliam cuts through the impenetrable ideological jargon to identify the key themes running through Beijing’s long term policy pronouncements.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: The 2020 US Election

    With the US election outcome likely subject to a period of litigation and some uncertainty, yesterday Gavekal partners and US analysts convened to discuss the possible scenarios lying ahead and what they're likely to mean for asset markets.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    The Post-Election Rally

    Heading into the 2020 election, the consensus among investors was that the worst possible outcome would be for a long, drawn-out election (check) decided by mail-in ballots (check), whose legitimacy would be questioned by one of the candidates (check), with the final result decided by the courts (most likely check). Yet on Wednesday financial markets cheered the vote. Why?

    6
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    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: US Election & Global Investment Roundtable (in French)

    Charles Gave, Louis-Vincent Gave, Didier Darcet and Cedric Gemehl delved into the results of the US election, and discussed the latest impact of Covid-19 on the global economy and markets. Additionally, they presented Gavekal’s latest research on portfolio construction.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Ant Stomped

    Ant Group’s US$35bn IPO was set to be the ultimate market validation of the new world of fintech and financial innovation. But by suspending Ant’s IPO at the last minute China’s financial regulators have demonstrated there is still a force more powerful than the coming wave of financial innovation: the state. It’s a lesson that big tech giants outside China may also need to take to heart, as they face increasing regulatory scrutiny from US and...

    5
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    Gavekal Research

    The New Geostrategic Pressure Point

    Investors today are overwhelmingly focused on the economic impact of the Covid pandemic and the possible effects of the US presidential election. Yet something happened over the summer that although not at all traumatic by comparison, may end up having much more far-reaching consequences for world geopolitics.

    6
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    A Surge In Earnings

    Net profits of China’s listed non-financial firms surged in Q3, reflecting the fundamental improvement in the Chinese economy. In this Quick Take, Thomas explains why business conditions, although improved, are not as good as the net profit figures might suggest—and why Q4 will likely represent the peak of China’s corporate profit cycle.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    US Inflation Is Still Benign

    The current investment environment in the US faces three clear and present dangers. The first is tomorrow’s election, the second is the resurgent Covid outbreak and the third, is the threat of an inflation surge, which could force the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy. Thankfully for asset markets, the latest releases show inflation to remain benign.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Strategy Monthly: Chinese Assets After The Recovery

    China was the first economy into lockdown, and the first to emerge, enjoying a rapid rebound in industrial production and exports. Uniquely among major economies, China has already regained and exceeded pre-Covid levels of output. The speed and strength of this early recovery was reflected in financial markets, with equities rallying hard, bonds selling off, and the renminbi appreciating on heightened capital inflows.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Video: Hong Kong's Resilience

    Massive inflows of capital into Hong Kong’s financial system ahead of this week’s record-breaking US$34bn IPO for Chinese fintech giant Ant Group represent a major vote of investor confidence in Hong Kong’s future as a financial center, just months after many international commentators were writing the city’s obituary following Beijing’s imposition of a sweeping national security law. Vincent explores the underpinnings of this confidence.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: Facing Down US Risks

    The world is focused on the US election, with concerns over a disputed result. Our US team of analysts are less worried about process than the substantive impact of big changes in domestic economic policy settings. Will, Yanmei and KX assessed the likely fallout from November 3 and assess the latest US economic data with a focus on threats to the US recovery should the pandemic worsen and near-term fiscal responses remain uncertain.

    0
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