E.g., 29-11-2021
E.g., 29-11-2021
We have found 13277 results.
View by: Grid List
Sort by: Relevancy Date
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Long Shadow Of Canada’s Election

    Canada’s federal elections rarely make headlines. This may be because whoever wins, the outcome is usually much the same. However, Canada’s September 20 election may cast a shadow that falls beyond the country’s borders. This is because, to a large extent, the election will be a referendum on Covid policies.

    7
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Who Is Copying Who?

    When China joined the WTO in 2001, western governments hoped that closer economic integration would pull China towards a more democratic system of governance. Yet two decades on, that hasn’t happened. In fact, argues Louis, recent years have seen governments in the West increasingly infringe on individual liberties for the benefit of the common good.

    17
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Investing Through The Taper

    After all the build-up hype, investors seem to have taken Jerome Powell saying that the Federal Reserve may soon be buying less assets in their stride. They have no doubt taken solace from the Fed chair’s promise that tapering does not mean imminent interest rate hikes, or quantitative tightening. So is the great 2021 “taper whimper” done and dusted? Perhaps not, for while the Fed’s expectation management has been slick, in the months ahead...

    6
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Evolution Of China Risk

    It has been a busy summer for China watchers, with rapid shifts in underlying risks. With that in mind, a quick recap of recent events, and where those leave investors, might make sense. Let me start with the obvious increased risks:

    4
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    China’s Interest In Afghanistan

    The western media have been full of warnings over the last week about how the US loss in Afghanistan is China’s gain, with Beijing poised to step into the vaccuum left by Washington’s withdrawal. But while China is anxious to protect its own security, it has no wish to bury itself in the graveyard of emires and will be extremely circumspect about pouring large investments into such a volataile country.

    2
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Never-Ending Chip Shortage

    Nine months after the world’s carmakers began to complain about difficulties sourcing the silicon chips they need to make their automobiles, it is becoming clear these shortages are not just the result of short-lived disruptions. Sure, the pandemic has played havoc with global hardware supply chains. But Covid is worsening underlying shortcomings baked into the semiconductor manufacturing industry. This means there will be no early end to the...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Drivers Of The Regulatory Crackdown

    What is driving China’s regulatory crackdown on internet and other companies, and what will happen next? In this piece, Ernan explains how four overlapping political campaigns by top leader Xi Jinping are behind the upheaval of recent months, and how those campaigns will guide the government’s enforcement priorities in coming years.

    4
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    How Equities Cured The Summertime Blues

    Now that equity prices have resumed their habit of setting almost daily new records, and true believers in the “buy on dips” mantra have been amply rewarded yet again, it seems worth recalling the causes of the stock market’s mini-panic in mid-July. To be more precise this was a micro-panic, lasting just five days, from July 14 to 19. What happened in those five days to rattle investors?

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Tapering The Frontier’s Prospects

    On Monday, the International Monetary Fund began disbursing a record US$650bn of its hard currency-like reserve asset to aid stressed sovereign borrowers. Since the plan was first officially mooted in March, financing costs have fallen sharply in frontier economies. The worry now is that this respite reflects the calm before a storm, which will hit when the Federal Reserve dials back its quantitative easing program.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Developers Feel The Squeeze

    The steady drumbeat of tightening on China’s property developers is taking its toll on construction activity. In this report, Rosealea explains why this weakness in construction will not unduly worry policymakers and should even help them achieve their goal of reducing steel production. Developers will therefore continue to feel the squeeze.

    3
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Germany’s Changing Political Colors

    Questioned by opinion pollsters, most Germans say the campaign ahead of the country’s September 26 federal election is dull. Yet those same opinion polls now point to the most wide-open election race in recent history. In the last few weeks, support for the center-left social democratic SPD has surged, even as the popularity of the center-right conservative CDU/CSU has slumped and the Greens have stalled.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The End Of The Cash Dump

    The US Treasury is running low on cash. Having massively ramped up its holdings of cash between April and July 2020 at the height of the Covid crisis, the Treasury has been running them down again since February 2021. Normally the Treasury aims to hold cash equal to one week of its outgoings, but it has fallen to less than half that amount.

    6
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Building A Science Superpower

    As China’s global rivalry with the US intensifies, it has focused strongly on improving science and technology. This push is not just about prestige, but also reflects a recognition that it can’t always lag behind the US in creating novel ideas. For this piece, Dan interviewed 22 scientists to evaluate the capabilities of China’s science system.

    2
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Getting The Macro Right But The Market Wrong

    In December 2020, I published a report arguing that the US economy was about to enter an inflationary boom. Things went as expected through the first quarter, but after the Fed began to talk about tightening policy at some indeterminate point in the future, the portfolio I had been recommending has done very poorly. In short, I have been wrong.

    4
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Huarong Comes Up For Air

    Huarong Asset Management announced in a press conference on Wednesday that it had reached a recapitalization agreement with government-backed investors. In this Quick Take, Wei and Xiaoxi explore the consequences for Huarong investors and the government’s wider battle against the implicit guarantee.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Housing’s Different Drivers

    High house prices may be making headlines in the US, but the homebuilding sector faces headwinds. In July, housing starts and building permit issuance for single family dwellings fell -1.7% month-on-month and -4.5%, respectively. Mortgage applications also fell, which points to weaker construction ahead (see chart below). A positive factor for US housing has been the recent decline in long-term treasury yields, yet there are good reasons to...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Asia’s Asset Quality Problem

    Economies with low vaccination rates across emerging Asia are tightening their restrictions on activity once again. So far, the economic and financial impact of the latest cycle of restrictions has been cushioned by exports and government support, but domestic demand remains depressed, private sector balance sheets have sustained damage and bank asset quality is deteriorating.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Taper Is Coming

    In less than two weeks, Jay Powell will get up to make his speech at the annual Jackson Hole gathering of central bankers. Investors should position for a clear signal that in the coming months the US will begin to taper. It is possible, even likely, that the ever-cautious Federal Reserve chief may decide to delay a few weeks, perhaps until the conclusion of the Fed’s next policy meeting on September 22. But his signal is only a matter of time....

    3
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Loan Demand Becomes A Problem

    China’s restrictions on borrowing by the property sector and local governments are proving so effective that total demand for credit is weakening. It now looks like loan growth could undershoot official expectations in the remaining months of 2021, which is raising pressure on the PBOC to cut reserve requirements or policy rates.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Saigon, Mosul Or Suez?

    The images of US diplomats scrambling onto jets at Kabul airport, of Afghan refugees fleeing to Iran, Pakistan and Tajikistan, and of the Taliban entering Kabul with barely a shot fired are disturbing viewing. For investors, the question is which is the closest historical parallel. The flying helicopters and evacuated embassies recall Saigon in 1975. The speed of the humiliation evokes the 1956 Suez Crisis. And the images of the Taliban parading...

    7
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    A Bumpy Slowdown

    Chinese economic data weakened across the board in July as disruptions caused by extreme weather exacerbated the country’s wider economic slowdown. In this report, the Dragonomics team explain why policymakers are expected to offer limited support in H2, support which will likely be insufficient to counteract the slowdown in exports and property.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Where There Is A Risk Of A Wage-Price Spiral

    After the United Kingdom released data on Thursday showing GDP grew 4.8% quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter, markets are now pricing in a near-100% chance of a rate hike by mid-June next year. In the event, 2Q21 GDP growth was a shade below the Bank of England’s forecasts. And unlike the US, the UK’s output remains below its prepandemic baseline—by 4.4%. Nevertheless, because of a contraction in the UK’s pool of potential labor following...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Coming Decline In Earnings Growth

    After 453 of the S&P 500’s constituent companies have reported for the second quarter, aggregate earnings are up 99% year-on-year. Much of this jump is attributable to base effects; the second quarter of 2020 was when lockdowns hit hardest. But not all; even stripping out base effects, earnings growth has been strong. This growth is destined to fade over the second half, as the impact of economic reopening and government stimulus abates, and...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Don't Count On An Infrastructure Boost

    With China’s government sounding more worried about growth, hopes are rising that infrastructure spending will get a boost in coming months. In this piece, Wei explains why new funding for projects will be slow to arrive. More of a boost will come by early 2022, but the upside will still be modest by historical standards.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Understanding Asia’s New Monetary Order (Part II)

    Last month, Charles reviewed the efforts China has made to build an alternative to Asia’s US-dollar-based trading system. Today, he peers into the future, and looks at what China is doing, not just to offer an alternative to the US dollar or euro, but to build a new monetary order for Asia.

    3
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Delta Stress Test

    The rapid spread of the Delta variant across China is posing the biggest challenge yet to the government’s zero-tolerance policy toward Covid-19. In this report, Ernan explains why officials are confident in the policy and will likely keep it in place for the indefinite future—at the cost of depressed travel and consumer services.

    8
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Video: India Backs Off Foreigner Tax

    India has been a tough place for multinationals to make big capital investments. Just this week the country’s highest court cleared the way for anti-trust action against Amazon and Walmart’s online retail platforms. However, a counter-trend move has been the government backing away from a retrospective tax that has been deployed against foreign investors.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Consequence Of The IPCC Report

    The quote I over-use most is probably Charlie Munger’s “show me the incentives and I will tell you the outcome.” With this in mind, it is no surprise that the IPCC report makes for a harrowing read. Whether you agree with its conclusions is neither here nor there. The key question is this: what will policymakers do, or want to be seen to do, in response?

    8
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Gavekal V-Indicator And Tactical Asset Allocation

    The Gavekal velocity indicator has lately begun to send some potentially alarming signals. If in the next four weeks the daily indicator does not swing back to positive, then the three-month moving average will turn negative, raising a red flag. To explain why, it is first necessary to remind readers what our V-indicator is, and why it can be useful.

    2
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Building A High-Pressure Economy

    With the Biden administration’s US$550bn infrastructure bill all but clearing the Senate on Sunday, more stimulus is set to hit the US economy. Assuming the House of Representatives approves the plan, hard-hatted government contractors will soon be upgrading transport, broadband, water, and power facilities. The effect of this largely debt-funded spending will be to fuel growth in a US economy that already packs heat and faces a tightening labor...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Yen As An Antifragile Asset

    Over the last 12 months, the world’s best-performing major currency has been the renminbi, returning 10.6% against the US dollar. The second best has been the British pound, up 6%. The worst has been the yen, which is down -4%. Over the last 24 months, the best-performing two currencies were again the pound and the renminbi, which both gained 15.1%. The worst, again, was the yen, down -3.4%.

    2
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Why Commodities Trump Politics

    On the eve of the pandemic, anger at stagnant incomes, high inequality and failing institutions spurred political protests across Latin America. Then came Covid-19. The political price of these events is coming due as left-wing leaders promise voters redistributive policies. For investors, the worry is of a lurch towards unsustainable public spending.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: Global Investment Roundtable, August 2021

    The US growth outlook may be softening as the reopening boom weakens but equity markets seem relaxed as this outcome could delay the day when monetary stimulus is withdrawn. In our sign-off webinar for August, Gavekal partners asked if markets are right in their benign assessment, or whether a nasty surprise could emerge over the usually quiet summer months.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Video: A Healing US Labor Market

    Since the depths of the pandemic, the US labor market has recovered remarkably quickly. A key question for investors is how long strong job creation can be sustained before upward wage pressure returns. Ahead of Fridays’ payrolls report, Kai Xian outlines the key drivers of the US labor market.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Another Squeeze For Steelmakers

    Steel futures are on the rise again after several provinces announced plans to cut production. This might sound familiar: prices spiked in April and May following similar announcements. Rosealea writes that this time is different, as slowing construction activity in 2H21 should lower steel demand, making production easier to control.

    1
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Sobering Signal In Lumber

    Back in May, an internet meme suggested that if you wanted to impress your date by taking them somewhere really expensive, you should go to a lumber yard. No longer, as the price of US two-by-four has since cratered by two-thirds. KX examines what commodity-price moves such as this can tell us about the broader economy.

    2
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The European Rotation

    As Europe returns towards something approaching normality, the eurozone is undergoing a rotation in economic leadership from goods to services. This rotation will go on through the second half of 2020.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Getting Kids Off Screens

    Digital gaming stocks tumbled yesterday after an editorial published in state media criticized the social consequences of video games. In this Quick Take, Ernan explains how regulators are tackling the perceived social ills of China’s youth, and why the dramatic market reaction underscores how sensitive investors have become to official guidance.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Capital Markets Balancing Act

    The pace of financial decoupling between the US and China has quickened, with regulators in both countries tightening requirements for Chinese firms seeking to list in US markets. With the SEC likely to push ahead with the delisting of Chinese firms, Thomas writes that Chinese companies will rely on Hong Kong to access global capital.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Is The Reflationary Trade Back On?

    Forget the recent easing signals sent by the Chinese Politburo (and consequent drop in Chinese bond yields). Forget fears about the “Delta variant” giving Western central banks cover to keep extremely loose monetary policies even as inflation rises. Forget also the upcoming US stimulus bill, or the unleashing of European fiscal expansion. A positive signal that no one is yet talking about is the deflationary signal that could have materialized,...

    1
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Strategy Monthly: The Global Monetary Divergence

    As the world’s three big economies—the US, the eurozone and China—recover at different speeds from the shock of Covid, their monetary policy paths are diverging. This divergence will have major implications for bond investors and foreign exchange markets.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Risks To The Rally

    US equities have ground higher on strong demand, easy monetary policy, and unattractive bond yields. As long as this situation remains, investors should remain moderately overweight US equities. But they should also carefully monitor three key macro risks that could upend this fairly benign investing environment.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Breaking Down European Inflation

    Two weeks ago, after US consumer price data for June showed inflation had climbed to a 13-year high of 5.4%, my colleague Tan Kai Xian examined the three main drivers of this year’s rise in US inflation: base effects, supply-side constraints and demand-pull factors. He concluded that base effects have started to wear off and supply-side constraints will soon begin to ease. However, demand-pull factors are set to strengthen over the coming...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: Europe Caught Between Stools

    The US has taken an approach to the pandemic that involves reopening and “living with Covid”, whereas most East Asian economies are heading down the "zero-Covid" path. Europe seems to be caught between these two stools. Which way Europe turns could have a big impact on global growth, the value of the euro and key asset values.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    When Will The Regulatory Rout End?

    Investors in China’s offshore-listed stocks have suffered multiple regulatory shocks. But with both onshore and Hong Kong equities now suffering, the crackdown is hitting domestic investors. Thomas explains why this will likely change the calculus for China’s policymakers, and why regulators are now likely to adopt a more constructive tone.

    2
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Video: The Semiconductor Crunch And Asian Exports

    Apple's Tim Cook warned investors that it would face microchip shortages in the second half of the year. Yet last week, Taiwan Manufacturing Semiconductor said that it saw an abatement of the great chip shortage. In this video interview, Vincent seeks to reconcile these two statements, and explain what it all means for Asian exports.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Evergrande Drama Plays Out

    Investor confidence in Evergrande Group, China’s second-largest property developer, has been pummeled in recent weeks. While Evergrande has managed to put out the latest round of fires, and a collapse is unlikely, Rosealea argues in this piece that market volatility for developers will probably continue as financial regulators keep on squeezing.

    7
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Strange Times And The Return Of TINA

    Fresh Covid-19 outbreaks, stunning Chinese regulatory actions and worries over global growth are causing US real bond yields to plumb new depths. So what is the humble investor to do? After all, historically tight US credit spreads means corporate credit is unattractive, while equities keep making new highs, pushing the S&P 500 index up 18% year-to-date. The answer may not be that complicated, as current growth data and market pricing...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Behind China’s Corporate Clampdown

    Private education is the latest sector to draw fire from the Chinese authorities. Their action has precipitated an abrupt slide in Hong Kong’s equity indexes as international investors bale out, alarmed at what they see as official caprice. It has also triggered a spate of questions about what lies behind the crackdown, and what the action means for the future of investing in China.

    9
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The WMP Countdown

    The clock is ticking for China’s banks to restructure the wealth-management products they have long used to evade financial regulations. Progress has been slow, but regulators have signaled they will not extend the end-2021 deadline again. However, as Xiaoxi argues in this piece, regulators will end up having to grant banks plenty of exceptions.

    5
Show me: results