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E.g., 28-10-2021
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    Gavekal Research

    How Monopolies Behave

    The economy is simply energy transformed. Today, we have a situation where governments in the West are attempting to kill off energy derived from fossil fuels, to which end they are subsidizing new forms of energy. The trouble is that demand for energy is growing faster than the ability of these new forms of energy to meet it.

    3
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    A Carbon Market's Slow Start

    China launched the world’s biggest carbon market last week to great fanfare. Unfortunately, Rosealea writes that it will not do much to slow China’s CO2 emissions growth, at least not initially. While the market's impact will be small at first, its architecture can be gradually strengthened to achieve more ambitious goals.

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    Gavekal Research

    Rotate Back To Taiwan

    Korea and Taiwan have lately been the twin star performers among East Asia’s equity markets. Over the 12 months to the end of June, MSCI Korea returned 70% in US dollar terms, and Taiwan 69%. Both markets were supercharged by the strongest local export growth in decades. And while shipments were flattered by base effects, there was strong underlying support from the robust demand for East Asia’s exports as developed markets reopened. In addition...

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    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: What's Behind China's Internet Crackdown?

    China's authorities have aggressively tightened regulation of the formerly free-wheeling internet sector. In this webinar, Gavekal RedTech principal Michael Clendenin joined Gavekal Dragonomics's Ernan Cui and Thomas Gatley to analyze the government's motives in the ever-widening crackdown, forecast the next regulatory moves and explain how investors can navigate the risks.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    The Economic Impact Of Delta

    This week saw Gavekal writers address risks to the global reflation trade. Louis explored three reasons for the market shift: (i) the rise of the Delta Covid variant, (ii) tighter-than-expected policy settings in the US, and (iii) China’s tightening measures. My aim is to focus on risks posed by the first of those: another Covid shock to Western economies.

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    Gavekal Research

    The China Piece Of The Puzzle

    On Monday, Louis identified three possible culprits for the rally in US treasuries, the consequent abrupt shift from value to growth, and the outperformance of US equities. Of these three, Chinese overtightening seemed the best explanation for what has unfolded in financial markets over the past couple of months. Louis explores what this could mean for investors.

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: The IMF Weighs In

    Large emerging markets have managed through the pandemic decently well, yet the debilitating economic effects of Covid mean stresses are appearing among lower quality national borrowers. This is one reason that the International Monetary Fund is set to expand distribution of its "Special Drawing Rights" reserve-type asset by US$650bn.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    A Manageable Decline

    Chinese economic data for June showed cyclical sectors beginning to decline from a strong peak, while consumption growth is still struggling to regain pre-Covid levels. In this Quick Take, the Dragonomics team explains why China seems on track for a manageable decline in H2.

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    Gavekal Research

    Distributional Effects Of A Pandemic

    While business activity in India has rebounded to above 90% of its pre-pandemic level, the economic suffering caused by lockdowns remains acute. Small firms are struggling to survive, millions of households have fallen into poverty, inequality has worsened and employment levels have structurally declined. Yet none of this has shown up in stock benchmarks.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Data Security Is National Security

    With the dramatic punishment of ride-hailing platform Didi Chuxing immediately after its IPO, China’s government has opened a new front in its regulatory crackdown on internet companies: data security. In this piece, Ernan explains why regulators are escalating and what these new concerns mean for Chinese internet platforms.

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    Gavekal Research

    Breaking Down US Inflation

    So have hopes that US price pressures are merely a transitory effect faded like a mirage on an Oregon highway? The higher-than-expected jump in June’s consumer price index to a 5.4% year-on-year gain certainly dented investors’ belief that US price pressures will prove fleeting. They are probably right in that view. For while some factors driving US prices higher will abate, new pressures are waiting in the wings. Therefore, in the medium term,...

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    Gavekal Research

    Understanding Asia’s New Monetary Order

    China’s program to dedollarize Asia must overcome two sets of problems: the problems inherent in trade between countries, and problems related to the financial risks posed by the passage of time. In this paper, the first of a major two-part report, Charles examines the progress Asia has made towards replacing the dollar as a reliable means of exchange for intra-regional trade.

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    Gavekal Research

    The Best Of Times, The Worst Of Times

    It is the best of times, it is the worst of times. July has seen the shares of the biggest US tech companies, including Apple, Amazon, Google and Facebook, advance to new record highs. At the same time, the legal and regulatory campaign to rein in Big Tech is reaching a new pitch of intensity.

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    Gavekal Research

    Behind The Bond Market Rally: Delta, The Fed Or China?

    US treasury yields made a post-Covid crisis high of 1.74% on March 31. At the time, US consumer prices were rising at 2.6% a year and oil was at US$60 a barrel. Fast forward to today and US CPI is at 5% and West Texas Intermediate at US$72/bbl. Meanwhile, bond yields have declined to 1.3%. It is hard not to conclude that one of these prices is “wrong”.

    3
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Making The Implicit Guarantee Explicit

    To keep access to bond markets amid rising defaults, many of China’s financially stressed local governments are offering stronger support for their companies’ debts—making the implicit guarantee more explicit. This won’t stop all local government financing vehicles from defaulting, but it means the defaults may come from less obvious places.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Will Manic Depression Move From Bonds To Equities?

    The retreat of US bond yields over the past quarter was no surprise for Anatole, as he has argued for much of this year that both US policymakers and investors would ultimately look through the "inflation scare". A lower cost of money could cushion the inevitable decline in growth that will occur in 2H21, and the bubble in US growth stocks can keep inflating.

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    Gavekal Research

    Is The Chinese Growth Sector Still Investable?

    First China’s regulators came for the fintech companies. Next, it was antitrust investigations into successful internet companies. Then it was a crackdown on private education. Now regulators’ ire has focused on ride-hailing platform Didi Chuxing. Has the specter of harsh and unpredictable regulation made China’s internet and other high-growth companies uninvestable?

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    Bye-Bye Buba

    The European Central Bank on Thursday jettisoned its longstanding inflation target of “below, but close to 2%” in favor of a symmetrical target centered around the 2% mark. The formal adoption of a symmetrical target is significant, because it acknowledges just how far the ECB has traveled from its origins as the institutional offspring of the Deutsche Bundesbank.

    1
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    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: China's Conflicting Pressures In The Second Half

    China is entering the second half of 2021 with its strong post-Covid economic momentum still intact, despite policymakers staying consistently hawkish on debt and property. In this webinar Wei He, Rosealea Yao and Thomas Gatley outlined how these conflicting pressures will play out over the rest of the year, and discussed the potential for an easing of the policy stance.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Not Quite A Wage-Price Spiral

    European companies are hiring again—or at least they would be if they could get the staff. The rebound in eurozone economic activity has fueled employers’ demand for labor. Having languished at about one standard deviation below its long term average through 4Q20 and 1Q21, the European Commission’s index of eurozone businesses’ hiring intentions has risen to over one standard deviation above its long-term average, as of end-June. The number of...

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