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E.g., 30-11-2020
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    Gavekal Research

    China Bulldozes A New Export Market

    1
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    Gavekal Research

    Thailand: The Vestiges of 1997

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    Gavekal Research

    Signs Of German Softening

    Last week, Francois argued that the Germans had successfully forced a strict, unforgiving and reformist agenda on the EMU, as underscored by the tough terms of the latest Greek bailout (see Has Germany Won?). The upside to this German victory is a plethora of reforms across the Eurozone. But of course the downside is that Germany’s tough medicine has brought Europe to its knees. Indeed, one could argue that the German plan is behind the record-...

    6
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek - Provinces Hopeful On Growth As Property Market Steadies

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    Gavekal Research

    A Hedge For Uncertain Times

    There are two fundamental ways to view the current bull market: either we are seeing a sustainable improvement in global growth prospects, or we are witnessing a liquidity-infused rally that will evaporate as soon as central bankers stop pumping extra money into the markets. Optimists lean more towards the former explanation, but one can never be sure. Thus the need to hedge against a long equities bias—and to us the best medium-term hedge is to...

    4
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    Gavekal Research

    A Global Valuation Tool

    In view of the magnitude of the recovery of stock markets worldwide, and with the likelihood that risk assets will continue to perform well over the coming months (as we tend to believe), the controversy about equity valuations is almost certain to intensify through the year ahead. Are equity markets cheap or expensive? There has always been a kaleidoscope of opinions on this subject because there is no agreement about the appropriate method of...

    8
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    Gavekal Research

    US Deleveraging: Still A Long Road Ahead

    It is three years since the nadir of the financial crisis that brought the US household credit boom to an abrupt stop. After the collapse in asset prices sent leverage ratios into the stratosphere in 2009, US consumers have been gradually reducing their debt; meanwhile the recovery in equity markets has done even more to bring leverage ratios back down. But US consumers have a lot more deleveraging to do. At best, household leverage is only...

    12
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    A New Headache For China Banks

    Over the past decade China financed its fast economic growth with a vast pool of domestic savings, which were channeled into the state-owned banks at artificially low deposit rates. This enabled the banks to lend to companies (mainly state owned) at artificially low rates to fund capital spending. This system is now breaking down under market pressure, as savvy depositors demand higher interest rates, and banks and affiliated trust companies...

    6
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    China's Coal Sector Chartbook

    Last week we released our In Profile report on China’s coal sector (“Coal: Once and Future King”). Today we present a handy PowerPoint summary of the key findings.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Why Are Commodities Rallying?

    While investor reaction to yesterday’s Greek bailout could best be described as a giant shrug, we did see some action on the commodity markets. The GSCI rose by +1.7% to finish the day at 699.9, the highest close in six months. Metals led the rally, with copper and aluminum both jumping +3.5% on the day. Crude oil prices also rose by +2.5% as the WTI closed at US$105.8/barrel, the highest close since May last year.

    3
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    Gavekal Research

    The Kindling And The Fire

    Inflation in the key Asian city-states of Hong Kong and Singapore is dangerously resilient: Hong Kong’s CPI reading jumped to 6.1% in January, and Singapore’s CPI has remained well above 5% for several months. This comes as both cities have spent several years building the monetary and fiscal equivalent of a pile of kindling. Recently, the Fed and ECB have been playing with matches. We should not be surprised that the kindling has started to...

    3
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    Gavekal Research

    Has Germany Won?

    My colleagues have argued that the euro can only be saved if Germany supports a full fiscal union and stops straitjacketing the ECB (see for example, Euro Woes And German Culpability)—and that almost nothing that has been done up to now deserves any praise. My view is slightly different: I think there is a case to be made that Germany is already on its way to saving the euro. The fiscal compact agreed to last month by 25 out of 27 EU member...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Blind Men Looking At Money

    Over the past year, we have published a number of debates on the euro, which generated vigorous client feedback, from the logical “isn’t it obvious that, if the euro continues as presently constructed, then it won’t”, to the somewhat tasteless “I was at Disney World this weekend and saw the Euro wearing a Make-A-Wish T-Shirt”. But at the heart of every one of these debates was a simple question—namely, what is money?

    11
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    Gavekal Research

    Liquidity Boost For Chinese Equities

    Last week we noted that domestic Chinese A-shares have lagged their Hong Kong listed H-shares counterparts because H-shares reflected an expectation of Chinese policy easing, while A-shares reflected the present reality that mainland liquidity remains fairly tight (see The China A vs H Share Gap Widens). That may now change, thanks to the 50bp cut in the bank reserve requirement ratio announced over the weekend by the People’s Bank of China (PBC...

    4
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    Gavekal Research

    A Checkup On Asia's 'Building Craze'

    Asia’s emerging economies may spend US$8trn on infrastructure before this decade is out, if they follow the ADB’s recommendations. That is, obviously, a lot of money: it is bit more than the total pre-tax corporate profits earned by US companies in the past ten years (US$7.6trn, based on the flow of funds data); and a lot more than estimated annual gross domestic savings in Asian emerging markets of US$5trn. Even big-spender China took about a...

    2
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek - Monetary Easing Counters Pressure From Bank Deposits

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    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Another Round Behind Achilles’ Chariot?

    Most investors that we have met in recent months tell us that they feel like Hector, being dragged around and around on the back of Achilles' chariot. And to be sure, the past few quarters have been one long series of sharp rallies (as we have just experienced), punctuated by sharp sell-offs that bring us back just where we started. Behind this constant to and fro lies a simple reality, namely that markets are made at the margin. And lately...

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Problem Of Chinese Land Reform

    In December, war erupted on the streets of Wukan, a fishing village in Guangdong province. The spark was the death in police custody of a village representative who was negotiating with local authorities for compensation for lost farmland. Local farmers chased all officials and police out of the village, blockaded roads, and armed themselves with steel-tipped bamboo spears. In what foreign reporters dubbed the “Siege of Wukan,” the local...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Greek Riots And Orderly Breakups

    The latest “strategy to save the euro” will again end in failure. That much is clear from the riots in Greece and from the public warnings by Greek politicians that they will not be bound by any deal negotiated by the technocratic government imposed on them by Brussels and Berlin. Even more important was the corresponding promise from Francois Hollande, the probable President of France after the May election, that he too would reopen the half-...

    9
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    Gavekal Research

    The Battle Over Land Policy In China

    As Chinese property prices fall, tensions are rising between cash-strapped local governments that want to pump up the market and a central government determined to preserve social stability by keeping a lid on housing costs. So far Beijing is winning. But it cannot ignore for much longer the local-government budget debacle that its housing policy risks creating.

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