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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q1 2012 - Retail

    Prime retail space in urban China has long been a tale of two cities: Shanghai and Beijing. Rental terms and prices in prime locations suchas Shanghai’s Nanjing West Road and Beijing’s Wangfujing now match those in Los Angeles and Singapore. The cost of the best spots in these locations is not far off those in London, Paris or New York. But as rents soar and competition for the best locations begins to heat up in second-tier cities, a clutch of...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q1 2012 - Metals Man: Waste Not, Want Not

    Waste recycling is hardly glamorous, yet developments in China demonstrate that reprocessing aluminium scrap can be very profitable. Stricter enforcement of government regulations and efficiency gains, driven by rising costs and more onerous requirements from rapidly expanding end-use industries, are transforming China’s waste aluminium business. The result is that aluminium recyclers will remain a viable part of the country’s super-competitive...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q1 2012 - National Debt

    In November 2008, China’s government delivered a surpriseannounce*ment to a world reeling from financial crisis. It pledged to spendRmb4 trn on a stimulus plan, three times as much money as the US government hadat that point promised. Yet China’s real contribution was not a fiscal stimulusat all: rather, it was an enormous surge in credit from the state-owned bankingsystem, allowing local governments to launch thousands of investment projects....

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q1 2012 - Economic Survey

    China has clearly entered into a substantial economic slowdown:both the private property market and government infrastructure investment arefinally correcting after two boom years. Yet the economy has not col*lapsed,largely thanks to still robust consumer spending and manufactur*ing investment.Official GDP growth was 8.9% year on year in the fourth quarter of 2011, barelylower than the 9.1% in the third quarter. The econ*omy slowed more...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    China Economic Quarterly March 2012 - China and the World

    (full version)

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    Gavekal Research

    The BoJ Uncertainty

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    Fathom China

    CEQ Q1 2012 - Yurun Food Group

    Chinese are crazy for protein. Despite the nation’s culinary reputation for eating big bowls of rice topped with tiny shavings of meat, China’s meat consumption is now right on the global average: 28 grams a day per person. In China, the vast majority of that meat is pork. So strong is the Chinese appetite for pork dumplings and meaty stir-fries that a main feature in debates among agronomists is whether rising income levels in China will raise...

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    Gavekal Research

    QSCB: The Global Bond Yield Conundrum

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    Gavekal Research

    The Risk-on, Risk-off Euro-Equities Trade

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek - A Mismatch In Growth Targets

    [TABLE="class: grid, width: 614"]

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    China's FX Cache Globalizes

    The long wait for China’s reserve diversification may finally be over. Though domestic and foreign critics have harangued the managers of China’s enormous stash of official FX reserves for years to cut their exposure to US dollars, all available data suggested they were taking their own sweet time. But the latest TIC survey from the US Treasury Department indicate that China’s diversification into non-dollar assets accelerated sometime around...

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    Gavekal Research

    The United States Of Europe

    Another month, another failed Euro-summit – the seventeenth in the two years since the Greek crisis, according to a Reuters count. Monday’s summit failed to agree on policies for growth and on details of a new austerity pact. Angela Merkel embarrassed everybody with a plan to impose euro-Viceroys on Greece and other debtor countries. Financial markets concluded that Portugal would inevitably follow Greece into debt default. And with Merkel...

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    Gavekal Research

    A Tactical Retreat For Techno-nationalism?

    The stench of government intervention in Chinese technology policy is sometimes overwhelming. At last November’s high-tech fair in Shenzhen all eleven sponsors were government agencies, and several ministries had their own exclusive exhibition halls populated by favored companies. Huawei and China Mobile sat in an almost empty hall run by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT). The products du jour included a Rmb400m super...

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    Gavekal Research

    India's Prickly Politics Of Recovery

    India’s GDP growth fell to 6.1% in 4Q11, mining the depths it hit during the global financial crisis. This is probably a cyclical trough, but the growth pickup in coming quarters is likely to be weak. With inflation running on the high side and the oil price rising, the Reserve Bank of India has little room to cut rates to boost growth. So it is up to the government to revive languid private investment by cutting its budget deficit and pushing...

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    Gavekal Research

    The Race Between Equities And Oil

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    A Decade's Window For China Gas Imports

    2011 was a landmark year for natural gas in China. Imports were strong, surging 81% to 30 bn cubic meters, according to CNPC, the country’s dominant producer. And more is to come: last year’s new five year plan mandates that the share of total energy consumption supplied by gas should double to 8.3% by 2015, from 4.3% in 2010. On current government targets, this means gas consumption would more than double to 262 bn cu m in 2015, from 120 bn cu...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    What Next For China's Housing Market

    With millions of units sitting vacant, developers cutting prices to lure buyers and sales volumes shrinking, it is easy to conclude that China faces a collapse in construction. In fact, China can easily sustain very high levels of housing construction for another 15-20 years. Much new supply is required to reduce the existing housing shortage, accommodate future urban population growth and replace dilapidated stock. The more relevant question...

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    Gavekal Research

    US Housing: Recovery Still On Track

    US house prices just keep falling: the Case-Shiller 20-city index for December fell -4.0% YoY and -0.5% MoM. Were we wrong to predict a slow recovery in the US housing market this year? Not so fast. Case-Shiller is a lagging indicator, and the design of the index means it will tend to understate a recovery. The balance of evidence still shows that the housing market is beginning to pick up.

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    Gavekal Research

    The LTRO Carry-Trade In Action

    Nobody knows whether today’s Long Term Refinancing Operation in Europe will be bigger or smaller than the first LTRO in December (i.e, The ECB’s 489bn Euro Christmas Gift). But one thing is certain: the ECB’s unprecedented liquidity injections have been far more effective in creating some (temporary?) stability in European financial markets than any of the treaties, bailouts and austerity programs that have obsessed politicians and media...

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    Gavekal Research

    On US Inflation

    One of the big concerns last year was the fear of a US double-dip. Now, however, as US economic data keeps surprising on the upside, it seems increasingly likely that this year’s more pressing issue will be the risk of an inflation backlash. Will the slack in the economy, coupled with the continued deleveraging of government and the financial sector be enough to stave away any price pressures? Or will the unprecedented central bank liquidity...

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