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E.g., 05-12-2021
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    Gavekal Research

    Will Manic Depression Move From Bonds To Equities?

    The retreat of US bond yields over the past quarter was no surprise for Anatole, as he has argued for much of this year that both US policymakers and investors would ultimately look through the "inflation scare". A lower cost of money could cushion the inevitable decline in growth that will occur in 2H21, and the bubble in US growth stocks can keep inflating.

    7
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    Gavekal Research

    Is The Chinese Growth Sector Still Investable?

    First China’s regulators came for the fintech companies. Next, it was antitrust investigations into successful internet companies. Then it was a crackdown on private education. Now regulators’ ire has focused on ride-hailing platform Didi Chuxing. Has the specter of harsh and unpredictable regulation made China’s internet and other high-growth companies uninvestable?

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    Bye-Bye Buba

    The European Central Bank on Thursday jettisoned its longstanding inflation target of “below, but close to 2%” in favor of a symmetrical target centered around the 2% mark. The formal adoption of a symmetrical target is significant, because it acknowledges just how far the ECB has traveled from its origins as the institutional offspring of the Deutsche Bundesbank.

    1
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    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: China's Conflicting Pressures In The Second Half

    China is entering the second half of 2021 with its strong post-Covid economic momentum still intact, despite policymakers staying consistently hawkish on debt and property. In this webinar Wei He, Rosealea Yao and Thomas Gatley outlined how these conflicting pressures will play out over the rest of the year, and discussed the potential for an easing of the policy stance.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Not Quite A Wage-Price Spiral

    European companies are hiring again—or at least they would be if they could get the staff. The rebound in eurozone economic activity has fueled employers’ demand for labor. Having languished at about one standard deviation below its long term average through 4Q20 and 1Q21, the European Commission’s index of eurozone businesses’ hiring intentions has risen to over one standard deviation above its long-term average, as of end-June. The number of...

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    A Surprise Easing Signal

    China’s State Council issued a statement calling for “using monetary policy tools, including cuts in the reserve requirement ratio” to reduce financing costs for enterprises. In this Quick Take, Wei explains why policymakers are trying to lower corporate borrowing costs without pushing down interbank rates.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Video: How Brexit Britain Shapes Up

    Six months after the UK properly left the European Union, the shape of the emerging post-Brexit economy is becoming a little clearer. Despite distorting effects from the pandemic, the impact on trade from being outside the EU’s single market can be seen, arguments about the UK’s position as a manufacturing hub can be tested and the future shape of Britain’s once super-charged financial services sector is coming into focus. Nick Andrews reviews...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Demographics And Prices

    Starting in the early 1980s, the world became increasingly flush with people in their prime working and saving years. That trend, however, has largely run its course and may now be going into reverse. As a result, investors should consider what economic trends have demographic drivers, making them vulnerable to a structural shift occurring.

    9
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    Gavekal Research

    The Year Of Policy Divergence

    A year into its recovery from the Covid-induced collapse of 2020, the world’s largest economy is stimulating final demand to an extent rarely seen before. Meanwhile, on the other side of the Pacific, the picture in the world’s second largest economy is starkly different. As a result, for the first time, broad money growth in the US is rapidly outpacing that occurring in China.

    4
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    Gavekal Research

    The Inflation Quandary

    Markets seem to be comforting themselves that incipient inflation is, as the Federal Reserve has argued, a transitory phenomenon. Louis is skeptical that this is the case. He sees no evidence of any deflationary shocks that could squeeze price pressure, while at the same time, Western policymakers are doing all in their power to pump up demand.

    1
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    Gavekal Research

    Opec Frays

    Last year, when Opec+ talks broke up without an agreement on setting production quotas, the oil price collapsed. On Monday, when Opec+ talks broke up without an agreement on setting production quotas, the oil price surged. The majority of market watchers see no inconsistency, but they are making some large assumptions, which deserve close scrutiny.

    3
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Another Go At The Property Tax

    After two years of silence, the Chinese government has signaled it is making a new effort to implement a residential property tax by expanding local trials. In this report, Rosealea explains why, against a better economic backdrop and with less organized opposition, the property tax is likely to stick this time around.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    The Impact Of Didi’s Smackdown

    Just two days after raising US$4.4bn from US investors, China’s largest ride-hailing platform, Didi Chuxing, has been placed under investigation by Chinese authorities and told to stop registering new users due to alleged violations in the handling of users’ data. Ernan and Thomas assess what this signals for the uncoupling of US and Chinese equity capital markets.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: Can Things Really Keep Getting Better?

    The US economy continues to break growth records as it reopens and other big regions may be set to go the same way, while Asia continues to prosper from a strong export outlook. The question is not whether the world economy slumps back into a funk, but whether growth expectations are now set too bullish.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Strategy Monthly: Dialing Down Expectations For US Growth

    Growth in the US economy is set to go from great to good. The easy pickings of releasing pent-up demand and re-employing idle workers are almost used up. Growth should stay above trend, but by a smaller margin. Investors should prepare for growth to undershoot expectations that are now too high.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Not Quite Vassal States

    "The best defense is a good offense" seems to be the mantra adopted by some emerging market central banks that have raised interest rates since the Federal Reserve began talking about a taper to its asset purchase program. This precautionary approach is at odds with the rhetoric from other EM central banks. So how to play this apparent bifurcation in responses?

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Video: Can Italy Recover?

    In response to the Covid economic shock, the European Union has vowed to adopt more expansive fiscal responses and limited mutualization of national debts. The country where this approach will fall, or rise is Italy. In this interview, Nick offers a view on whether it will be enough for Italy to mount a comeback.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    A Killer Wave In The Nasdaq Bubble?

    It’s hardly surprising that stock markets are hitting new records. The inflation panic has subsided and bond yields have retreated Therefore, the immediate risk for investors is not a meltdown in bonds and equities that was predicted by perma-bears in the second quarter. The real risk may be a melt-up in equities, especially in growth stocks, as the first quarter’s growth-to-value rotation reverses.

    1
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    Gavekal Research

    Asia’s ‘Heads I Win, Tails I Don’t Lose’

    It was less of a taper tantrum, more of a taper tizzy. In response to the US Federal Reserve’s first talk of policy normalization in mid-June, the DXY US dollar index rose 1.9% and the S&P GSCI commodity index fell -2.7%. These are not huge moves, but they are big enough to prompt nervous emerging market investors to look for “heads I win, tails I don’t lose” plays.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    A User's Guide To The Chinese Bond Market

    The expansion and opening of China’s onshore renminbi bond market is one of the biggest changes to the structure of global financial markets in recent years, one that investors are still grappling with. In this comprehensive 30-page DeepChina report, our analysts present a guide to the nature and functioning of this important market.

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