E.g., 26-10-2021
E.g., 26-10-2021
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    No Respite For Real Estate

    Troubled developer China Evergrande Group made an interest payment on a US dollar bond just before the 30-day grace period expired on October 23, narrowly avoiding a default. However, this does not mean the wave of developer defaults is over, or that the freeze in demand for developer debt has thawed.

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    Gavekal Research

    When Correlations Reverse

    For decades, portfolio managers have held US treasuries as a hedge for their equity exposure on the grounds that over periods of 12 months or so, treasuries tend to be inversely correlated with the US stock market. For the most part this strategy has worked. But few investors seem to appreciate that the relative performance of US treasuries and stocks depends heavily on the type of inflation the US economy experiences. If inflation is demand-led...

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    Gavekal Research

    Back On The Road Again

    In the last couple of weeks Louis has been on the road, meeting clients face-to-face for the first time in 18 months. In this report, he distills some of the spirit of those conversations, addressing hot button topics from the sharp run-up in energy and commodity prices, through China’s economic slowdown, to the increase in tensions across the Taiwan Strait.

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    Gavekal Research

    Japan’s Poorly Defined New Dawn

    Having recorded the first rise in headline consumer prices for 18 months, Japan is once again an inflationary economy. This may be welcome news for new prime minister Fumio Kishida, who claims to have a bold new agenda to break Japan out of its funk. Alas, Kishida’s agenda looks half-baked and could spur a retreat from Japanese risk assets.

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    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: What To Expect As The Fed Tapers

    The Federal Reserve is planning to wind down its creation of artificial savings just as the US net national savings rate has ticked lower and the Treasury is preparing to rebuild its depleted cash balances. Will and KX set out what these all these shifts—as well as rising inflation, tightening labor markets and deteriorating housing affordability—mean for US stock and bond markets.

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    Gavekal Research

    Europe’s Wage-Price Nexus

    Data released on Wednesday showed that Germany’s producer price inflation accelerated to 14.2% year-on-year in September. That’s not only faster than consensus expectations of 12.8%, it’s the fastest since November 1974 in the immediate aftermath of the oil price shock.

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: Typhoon Season For Hong Kong

    Hong Kong is sticking to its zero-Covid policies, complete with a travel ban on outsiders and Draconian quarantine rules for returning residents, even as Singapore tentatively reopens to international arrivals. In this video interview, Vincent explains what is driving Hong Kong’s uncompromising stance on Covid. He assesses whether it will damage the city’s standing as a regional financial center, and whether doubts over the status of China...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    A Decision Rule For Chinese Equities

    For investors trying to buy the dip in Chinese equities, there is one reliable indicator—the government’s macroeconomic policy, as proxied by private-sector credit growth. In this report, Thomas outlines a robust decision rule for asset allocators: when credit growth is accelerating, buy equities; when it’s decelerating, buy government bonds.

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    Gavekal Research

    Ghost Trains And The Chinese Debt Mountain

    Fears about a debt crisis erupting in the world’s most financially vulnerable nations have receded, but there is still uncertainty over how developing economies will manage their debt repayments. The biggest lender to low- and middle-income countries is China, and a new study estimates that debt owed to China has been severely underreported.

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    Gavekal Research

    Drawing Conclusions From A Sample Size Of One

    We are all the fruits of our own experiences, which create biases to project our experiences into the future. Such personal experience can even be transformed into iron rules. Today, the narrative is that Federal Reserve tapering results in lower bond yields. Louis challenges this view, pointing out that as the Fed has started talk of tapering, yields have been rising.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Solving The Power Crisis

    To solve China’s power shortages, planners are both liberalizing electricity prices and browbeating mines to produce more coal. In this report, Rosealea explains that while getting through the crisis will require a rebound in coal-fired power, energy price liberalization should support China’s environmental goals in the long run.

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    Gavekal Research

    The US Production Problem

    US manufacturing production data for September released on Monday was a double disappointment. The -0.7% month-on-month decline, down from growth of 0.2% in August, not only fell short of consensus expectations for 0.1% growth. It also dampened hopes that manufacturing is set to emerge as a significant driver of US economic growth. This raises questions over the future strength of the US expansion.

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    Gavekal Research

    The Source Of Discoordination And Inflation

    Today, the global economy lacks its usual order. Each month brings a new shortage that is disrupting supply chains and driving up prices. In short, the right goods are not being delivered at the right time and place. Will examines the drivers of spacial and temporal "discoordination" to determine how investors should allocate assets in this challenging environment.

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    Gavekal Research

    The Troubling Signal In US Savings

    In recent months, the US net national savings rate—the share of income unconsumed—has ticked lower. It may seem a small concern as the Federal Reserve prepares to taper, but if the rate of genuine savings continues to fall over coming quarters, it will be a danger signal both for asset markets and for US economic growth.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    A Steady Slowdown

    Chinese economic growth continued to slow in 3Q21 thanks to ongoing supply constraints and demand weakness. In this Quick Take, the Dragonomics team explains that while China’s poor September figures reflect supply-side constraints, of greater concern is the weakening demand side due to a deepening property downturn.

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    Gavekal Research

    Still Behind The Curve

    On Thursday, the Monetary Authority of Singapore announced it would target a modest nominal effective exchange rate appreciation of the Singapore dollar in order to contain domestic inflation. On the same day, the governor of the Central Bank of the Philippines, or BSP, said there “is no more need” for the central bank to continue financing government fiscal policy.

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    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: China’s Policy Trajectory

    China’s leaders capitalized on the country’s post-Covid boom by pursuing reforms that further Xi Jinping’s political goals. This has resulted in hits to both economic growth and financial markets. Andrew unpicks these developments and explains why he thinks no overt U-turn in the broad policy approach is likely, but addressed possible regulatory softening moves.

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    Gavekal Research

    Building The Bubble-O-Meter

    Charles is somewhat tired of reading general descriptions of US equities being in a bubble, with little serious empirical backing to support the assertion. In this piece, he sets out to build an objective tool to answer the bubble, or not, question. Spoiler alert: he thinks investors would do well to re-assess their hedges.

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    Gavekal Research

    Persistent Inflation Takes Over

    Some may hope that supply bottlenecks quickly ease and the price-hike scare of 2021 soon fades, but that is not the story of the latest US inflation reading. In short, US inflation is now persistent and the Federal Reserve will soon have to address this reality head-on.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Long Winter For Small Business

    China’s small businesses are having a rough 2021: business conditions have stagnated or deteriorated since the recovery in late 2020. There’s been much debate on the causes of their struggles, but the biggest culprits are the ripple effects from the government’s zero-tolerance Covid policy and its tightening of credit and real-estate policies.

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