E.g., 08-04-2020
E.g., 08-04-2020
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Tech War, Meet Trade Deal

    Plans enacted by US national security hawks to toughen sanctions on Huawei and other Chinese tech firms have run into stiff resistance from both American tech firms and President Trump himself. Dan reports that, amidst this stalemate, both factions are mobilizing for a protracted fight over the fate of restrictions on exports to China.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Who Will Win The War On Covid-19?

    In recent weeks leaders around the world have deployed all the rhetoric of wartime to declare hostilities against Covid-19. Louis examines which, if any, of the three major global powers—the US, Europe and China—is likely to emerge from the war a relative “winner”, and draws the appropriate investment conclusions.

    11
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    Gavekal Research

    The Atlantic Divide

    Second order economic effects from the Covid-19 outbreak are ripping through industrialized economies, with soaring unemployment, shuttered industries and a fall in corporate profits. While China has eschewed large-scale government support, Europe and the US have adopted massive fiscal and monetary responses. These Western initiatives do, however, differ in key respects and when lockdowns finally end, one or other approach will likely have...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Waiting For Godot (21st Century Edition)

    For years, investors have been waiting for China’s massive accumulation of debt to lead to a “Minsky moment”. Instead, in the Covid-19 crisis it is Western central banks that are blowing out their balance sheets in a desperate attempt to stabilize financial markets and their economies—while Chinese government bonds have proved “anti-fragile”.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Breaking Down An International Liquidity Crisis

    These are hard times for the global system as big economies are effectively shuttered and risk appetite craters. The US dollar has surged and many leveraged countries face trouble servicing their debts. As these factors become self-reinforcing, Charles thinks it is worth standing back to assess what is causing what. He does this by explaining the dynamics of an international liquidity crisis and suggests specific investment strategies to handle...

    1
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    Gavekal Research

    What You See, And What You Don’t

    In economics there is what you see and what you don’t see, and “there is no such thing as a free lunch.” As the world economy suffers a spasm the likes of which has rarely been seen in peacetime, it may help to go back to first principles to figure out what we are not seeing about this crisis, and who is going to end up paying for it.

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    Video: Regime Change In The Oil Market

    The breakup of the Opec+ oil cartel and the ensuing price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia triggered a -30% fall in the price of oil and spooked financial markets. Moscow has upended the monopolistic pricing regime that has supported the price of oil over the last three years. Tom Holland examines the consequences of the oil market’s regime change.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    The Bond Blow-Off Top

    The freakout in markets spurred by the coronavirus outbreak has seen US treasuries deliver one of their strongest two-week performances in the post-Cold War era. Louis argues that these moves leave investors with a stark choice to make: either we are seeing a “blow-off top”, or alternatively the world is facing an impending economic ice age.

    3
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    Gavekal Research

    What Goes Around Comes Around

    Amid the Covid-19 outbreak and the Saudi-Russia oil price war, markets are essentially priced for a scenario in which the US government does little in response, leaving the policy reaction to the Federal Reserve. While this may be the most plausible scenario, other possible US government actions, at home and abroad, have different implications for markets.

    8
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Coming Collapse Of Exports

    As other economies shut down to contain their outbreaks, China’s hopes of a V-shaped growth rebound are evaporating. Thomas explains how the ensuing collapse in Chinese exports could result in a 4-8pp drop in GDP growth for Q2, offsetting any domestic recovery and pressuring policymakers to ramp up economic assistance.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Six Degrees Of Uncertainty

    World markets are in full-on panic mode, thanks to a cloud of unknowing that has settled over two topics of broad importance: the spread and economic impact of the coronavirus, and the outcome of the oil-price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia. The topics are related, and so we are grappling with the problem of pricing epidemic-related uncertainty.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    A Hand Grenade In A Bloodbath

    If you ever wondered what would happen if someone lobbed a hand grenade into a bloodbath, now you know. Markets were always going to be shaky on Monday, as it became increasingly clear that the US is set to see a sharp rise in recorded coronavirus cases. Then, on Friday Russia walked out of the Opec+ oil producers’ cartel, initiating an all-out price war in the oil market.

    1
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    Gavekal Research

    Bad Shocks Can Have Benign Effects

    There are few people outside Donald Trump’s administration who think the US-China trade war was a good thing. There are surely even fewer who think the Wuhan coronavirus outbreak has any positive aspects at all. Nevertheless, while both last year’s trade war and this year’s viral epidemic are bad for global economic growth, they are both largely beneficial for US households.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Solvency Crisis Or Liquidity Crisis?

    Collapsing equity markets, rising bond yields, widening spreads, falling gold—in recent days, there have been few places to hide. When markets act so sick, it usually pays to take a deep breath (in a socially distant manner) and ponder whether we are facing a solvency crisis, or a liquidity crisis.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    After The Perfect Storm

    While most media attention is focused on the Covid-19 outbreak, the energy industry simultaneously faces a solvency crisis and a liquidity seizure of epic proportions is unfolding before us. In short, these events have created a perfect storm. What comes next depends on how this three factors driving markets play out

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    The Dollar Squeeze Intensifies

    Policymakers in the world’s biggest economic blocks are responding to the current crisis with fiscal and monetary “shock and awe”. Yet even as the much maligned European Central Bank joined the asset purchase party, markets have continued to crater. For all the coordinated economic responses to the coronavirus pandemic, there has been no serious effort to free up the offshore market for US dollars.

    10
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    From The Supply Side To The Demand Side

    As China gets back to work, the biggest problem facing the economy is no longer restrictions imposed on the supply side, but the near-certain prospect of a major shock in global demand. Andrew argues that this shift will cajole Chinese policymakers, who have so far kept a conservative approach, into stepping up their growth support measures.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Quantifying Trade War Risk

    Investors seem to have grown somewhat blasé about the US-China trade war lately. Over 12 months after the outbreak of hostilities, the S&P 500 is up 2.2% year-on-year. Part of the reason for this nonchalance appears to be a belief that US growth and domestic profits are invulnerable to any escalation of the conflict. This belief may be mistaken.

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    A Modest Proposal To Avert Economic Catastrophe

    Contrary to initial expectations, the spread of the coronavirus around the world is not following the relatively benign trajectories experienced in China outside of Hubei, and in Korea, Singapore and the rest of Asia. Instead, across Europe—and likely in the US—the spread increasingly resembles the path it took in Hubei. This threatens both medical and economic disasters.

    4
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    Gavekal Research

    What US$35 Oil Means For The US

    Much of the commentary on the -30% downward breakout in the price of oil over the last couple of weeks has focused on the negative fallout for the US economy. The demand destruction caused by Covid-19 which initiated the oil price fall is a clear economic negative. Yet cheaper energy also promises positive effects. KX weighs the forces at work.

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