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E.g., 19-02-2020
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Case Of The Mysterious Vanishing Statistics

    Problems with China’s economic statistics are often blamed on falsification by local officials. But they are not the only ones causing trouble. In this piece, Thomas and Ernan document how central government agencies, including the National Bureau of Statistics and the central bank, have recently stopped publishing some important data series.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Echoes Of 2000 Strike A False Note

    First there was the WeWork IPO failure and a string of other flops. Now the S&P 500 has slumped -3% in just two days, leaving the index down -4.6% from its July high. As a result, nervous investors are wondering whether the US may be seeing the beginning of the bursting of a bubble, just as in 2000. Are the fears justified?

    2
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Rising Risks For Chinese Firms

    The outcome of US-China trade talks is uncertain, but one thing is clear. Chinese companies, their customers and suppliers, faced increased risks of US American sanctions. Hardliners in the US national security establishment are pressing ahead with an “all-of-government” strategy to constrain China’s technological and financial clout. This will continue regardless of the outcome of trade talks.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Hong Kong’s Core Problem

    The Hong Kong government’s stated aim is to drive a wedge between radical protesters who are resigned to jail or worse, and a less committed group that it thinks will be cowed by increased penalties. Initial evidence suggests the strategy is a busted flush. Sunday saw large-scale illegal marches by mask-clad demonstrators before the now predictable violence unfolded.

    6
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    Gavekal Research

    At Home In The Range

    Almost a month after missile attacks on key Saudi Arabian oil production and processing facilities pushed benchmark global oil prices up by 20% overnight, the market has moved on. Saudi Arabia has defied industry expectations by continuing to supply oil to the market in abundant quantities. The current market pricing reflects that.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    US-China Impressionism

    It is sometimes said that getting a clear view of Chinese policy is impossible; the best you can hope for is an “impressionist” picture of what broadly is going on. Increasingly it looks as if this impressionism is catching. As if understanding China wasn’t hard enough, lately figuring out US policy towards Beijing has become a lot more complicated.

    1
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    Gavekal Research

    What A Trade War Means For Europe

    The departure of free-trader Gary Cohn from the Trump administration has investors rightly concerned that a global trade war may loom. Markets rallied yesterday on reports that the US may carve out exclusions for its steel and aluminum tariffs, but President Donald Trump seems set to announce a punitive package as early as today. The European Union has taken a tough stance against the US threat, and yesterday added orange juice and peanut butter...

    1
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    Gavekal Research

    Shanghai Talks Now A Sideshow

    Trade talks between the US and China resume today after a three-month hiatus. This meeting may or may not pave the way for a deal in the next several months, but it no longer matters much. The global macro risk from the trade conflict has ebbed dramatically. What's important now is the dimensions of the decoupling between the world’s two biggest economies.

    1
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    Gavekal Research

    The First Casualty In Trump’s Trade War

    Donald Trump has finally delivered on his long-delayed promise of trade protectionism, and in the worst possible way. By promising to impose tariffs on metals imports (25% on steel, 10% on aluminum) on “national security” grounds, he addresses a problem that doesn’t exist, and creates a host of new ones. All this assumes, of course, that the tariffs are not watered down or more narrowly targeted when they are formally announced next week—a real...

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Taking Intellectual Property Seriously

    It is easy to forget that the US trade war with China is founded on the issue of intellectual property—and to miss the fact that, despite the breakdown in trade talks, China is pushing through many legal changes to improve IP protection. But as Dan explains, while the technical improvements are real, so is political pressure on the legal system.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Please, Your Majesty, Do Nothing

    Western democracies in the early 1990s stood unchallenged in the battle of big ideas. Alas, everything that has gone wrong in western economies over the last decade or so stems from the lessons that the technocracy took from this victory. Charles considers the mistakes and examines the investment consequences that must now follow.

    2
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Banks Still At Risk

    The first wave of Chinese bank failures will not be the last. Over the summer, three smaller Chinese banks had to receive official assistance to continue operating. The problems that brought down those banks were not isolated issues, and there are other smaller banks still at risk. This report identifies the most troubled institutions.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Video: What Drives Chinese Equities

    Chinese equity markets are up around 26% for the year. Yet there has been no recovery in earnings growth, and the trade war and shaky domestic economic momentum continue to loom. The reason for the market optimism is expectations of supportive government policies, whether or not those expectations are valid.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Beijing's Conflicted Easing

    As prospects for a quick resolution of the US-China trade conflict fade, and the data continue to soften, expectations for Chinese growth are getting marked down. As if on cue, the government has sent signals of more decisive policy support for growth. While encouraging, this does not presage a shift in China's macro policy of "selective" easing.

    3
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    Gavekal Research

    What If The Fed Has Finished Cutting

    What happens to the US equity market if the Federal Reserve has already finished cutting interest rates? Last Friday, Will made the case for a rebound in US growth, but withheld judgement whether it would be driven by real growth or inflation. The prospect raises the very real possibility that the Fed may decide rates have been cut enough.

    9
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    Gavekal Research

    The Story Behind Low US Volatility

    When Donald Trump declared his trade war against China in the spring of 2018, investors could have been forgiven for expecting the resulting uncertainty and additional economic friction to add both to US equity market and GDP growth volatility. In fact, equity market volatility has generally been low, and US economic growth has remained stable.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    A War On All Fronts

    I have previously argued that Trump Administration trade policy—and specifically policy on China—should be understood as a volatile reaction among four forces: the president, the trade warriors, the national security hawks, and the business community. While all four forces are still hard at work, it’s clear that President Trump has the upper hand—as a result of which the US now seems committed to waging trade war on all fronts.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    How China Can Fight Back In The Trade War

    China is a veteran in economic warfare. As the US prepares to hit China with trade and investment penalties, China can draw on years of experience and an arsenal of regulatory tools to craft a response. The local operations of US companies present a large target. In this piece, Yanmei explains how China is most likely to retaliate against the US.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Waiting For Rate Cuts

    Markets are now primed for China’s central bank to lower the policy rate in the new loan-pricing system it unveiled in August. In this piece, Andrew explains how these rate cuts will work, why they are different from the rate cuts of the past, and why these moves will not mean any change in the central bank’s current strategy of “selective easing.”

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Q&A On The Saudi Oil Attacks

    One thing that stands out about the reaction to the weekend’s strikes on Saudi Arabian oil facilities is how muted much of the market response has been. Nevertheless, investors are concerned about what lies ahead. In this report, Louis attempts to answer some of the most prominent questions asked over the last 48 hours.

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