E.g., 26-09-2020
E.g., 26-09-2020
We have found 2190 results.
View by: Grid List
Sort by: Relevancy Date
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Renminbi, Manipulation And The Trade War

    Monday’s actions on the Chinese currency—Beijing’s decision to let the renminbi’s exchange rate weaken past CNY7.00 to the US dollar, and Washington’s decision to label China a currency manipulator—signal that the US and China are close to throwing in the towel on a trade deal. Trade war escalation should now be the base case.

    1
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Trade War: Back From The Dead

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Trump's Trade War Calculus

    Keeping track of all the pieces of the US-China confrontation has become a full-time job. But the chaos and uncertainty of the past couple of weeks has begun to resolve itself into fairly clear patterns, even if the outcomes remain in doubt. Three main conclusions emerge from last week’s activity, and none of them are particularly reassuring.

    10
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Trade War Story Lines Harden

    The US-China trade war has three potential outcomes. First, we could see a step back from brinksmanship and a deal in the next few weeks. Second, the two sides could dig in for more protracted negotiations. Third, the talks could break down and the trade war become permanent. With the probability of each outcome less than 50%, the only certainty is continued uncertainty.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Froth Comes Off

    Recent weeks saw telltale signs of markets getting silly: firms with no sales reaching U$26bn valuations; airline-focused exchange traded funds jumping from US$50mn in size in January to US$1.5bn, and bankrupt firms becoming five and 10 baggers. This kind of activity may lead to one of three conclusions.

    4
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Range Of US Sanctions

    US President Donald Trump has pledged a response to Beijing’s decision to impose national-security legislation on Hong Kong, and has now signed legislation to sanction officials involved in the crackdown on Uighurs in Xinjiang. In this piece, Dan outlines the various legal tools that the US can bring to bear and their possible effects.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Trade War II, The Dollar And Gold

    After the opening Twitter salvo in "Trade War II" by Donald Trump in May, markets have reacted quite differently from "Trade War I" in the spring of 2018. This time, the Federal Reserve is sounding more dovish, US bond yields have fallen back to 2%, the dollar seems to be rolling over, and gold and EMs are doing well. This raises the question whether the investment environment is changing before our eyes.

    9
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Arbitrage Comes Out Of The Shadows

    The Covid-19 pandemic has shocked China’s financial regulators into allowing a substantial rebound in total credit growth. But they are not worried enough to abandon their strict control of shadow finance. As Xiaoxi explains in this piece, a recent bounce in the shadow finance numbers is due to a popular arbitrage which is now being contained.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Tourism Falls Victim To The Trade War

    The boom in China’s outbound tourism could go down as another casualty of the trade war. As Ernan explains in this piece, the combination of a weakening currency and rising political tensions is becoming a major drag on international travel by Chinese—just as the structural factors driving outbound tourism growth are shifting into a lower gear.

    2
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    How Multinationals Are Managing The Trade War

    The collapse of US-China trade talks and the ratcheting up of tariffs has intensified the challenges faced by global companies with operations that span both countries. In this piece, Lance reports on their range of responses to the trade war: some are shifting out of China, some are investing more in China, and some are not doing anything yet.

    1
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    US Politics Versus Chinese Stocks

    Financial markets are the latest field in which US-China political tensions are playing out. Thomas describes two lines of attack US hawks are pursuing against China: blocking Chinese firms from US equity markets and pressuring US asset managers to avoid Chinese equities. The risk associated with Chinese stocks has therefore materially increased.

    2
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Surviving A US$100bn Funding Gap

    Developing economies are struggling from reduced trade and harder access to capital. They also face a US$109bn cut in remittance income this year as construction sites in the rich world close, ships stay in port and restaurants are shuttered. This could spur a spiral of poverty and protest that ends with debt defaults that even suck in well-managed emerging markets.

    2
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    A Better Time For A Trade War

    For equity investors, there is a never a good time to have a trade war. Nevertheless, if there must be one, the US stock market is now better placed to ride out a US-China tariff conflict than it was a year ago. That’s just as well. Chinese negotiator Liu He is set to arrive in Washington on Thursday for the latest round of trade talks which are going down to the wire.

    5
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Renminbi As Collateral Damage

    The rise in US-China tensions over the past week is taking a toll on China’s currency, which has weakened to CNY7.15 to the dollar from around CNY7.10, approaching its lows of last September. This has raised a worrying question: is China about to use currency depreciation as a weapon in its widening dispute with the US?

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    As The World Reopens

    A few weeks ago, I outlined three scenarios that could unfold as the world reopened for business. Since then, it looks like the market is starting to tentatively position scenario #3 in which the world economy rips and inflation rises due to pent-up demand, budget deficits, low oil prices and money printing. This makes sense, but the rotation may soon face a number of challenges.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Bad Shocks Can Have Benign Effects

    There are few people outside Donald Trump’s administration who think the US-China trade war was a good thing. There are surely even fewer who think the Wuhan coronavirus outbreak has any positive aspects at all. Nevertheless, while both last year’s trade war and this year’s viral epidemic are bad for global economic growth, they are both largely beneficial for US households.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Art Of (Trade) War

    Donald Trump’s trade war against China demonstrates that the Washington consensus is dead and buried. This suggests that the world will split into three monetary zones, each with its own anchor currency and risk-free asset class. As a result, the close relationship between the renminbi and the US dollar is a thing of the past and China’s vast current account surplus will become unsustainable. Charles examines what all this means for investment...

    2
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    What The Trade Deal Won't Change

    President Trump has confirmed he will sign his trade deal with China on January 15, and the PBOC has reinforced its tilt to more dovish policies. This combination of events means the macro factors that drove December’s rally—a receding trade war and a global easing of monetary policy—are still in place for January, if increasingly priced in.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    A Charm Offensive For Supply Chains

    As multinationals in China face growing pressure to shift their supply chains elsewhere, China’s government is doing everything it can to hold on to them. As Dan explains in this piece, China’s ability to get businesses back on their feet after the Covid-19 lockdown is a great advertisement for its attractiveness as a place to do businesses.

    6
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    A US Full-Court Press Against China

    The US-China relationship has deteriorated rapidly, and the main reason seems to be that Donald Trump has decided that a “tough on China” approach should be central to his reelection campaign. Acrimony between the two countries is likely to get much worse between now and November, and US actions are starting to spread from technology to finance.

    0
Show me: results