E.g., 22-10-2020
E.g., 22-10-2020
We have found 2201 results.
View by: Grid List
Sort by: Relevancy Date
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Trade Wars: Advantage China

    In the US-China trade war, China is skillfully playing Go while the US is playing tic-tac-toe, badly. Arthur analyses the announcement of US$60bn worth of tariffs by the US on Chinese imports and finds the US flailing without a firm strategy. But behind the news, a dangerous consensus has emerged among America’s elites which holds that China’s rise comes at the US’s expense, and must be checked.

    2
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Audio & Transcript — Gavekal Research Call March 2020

    In Thursday’s conference call, Louis-Vincent Gave, Andrew Batson and Cedric Gemehl discussed the policy and market reactions to the Covid-19 outbreak.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Real Threat To The US Health Care Industry

    As Democrats choose a presidential candidate, much of the debate has centered around proposals to introduce universal health care coverage, how much that would cost, and the damage it would inflict on the US health care sector. But in fact, the biggest potential threat to the health care industry comes from a different quarter altogether.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Strategy Monthly: Focus On The Fed, Not On US Tariff Threats

    Trade war fears are once again front and center of investors' minds. But the reduced magnitude of pledged US tariffs indicates that Trump is anxious to avoid damaging the US economy and financial markets. This leaves the focus on the Fed, and how much it is likely to cut interest rates.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Focus Turns To The Fed

    After the de-escalation of the US-China economic cold war at the weekend’s G20 summit in Osaka, all eyes are now on the US Federal Reserve, following policymakers’ recent indications that they are ready to cut interest rates. It could be argued that the trade war ceasefire reduces economic risk, and therefore will leave the Fed less inclined to loosen policy. But the Fed’s primary focus is on inflation expectations, and the degree to which they...

    2
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Video: Looking Through The Bond Bubble

    As yields fall to record lows, bond markets seem priced for some sort of global economic calamity. With Europe in dire straits and the US-China trade war remaining live, there is certainly cause for worry. But when things look like they can’t get any worse, Will reckons, they often don’t. As the US growth outlook appears steady, equities and cash are the better bet.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Exponential Optimization

    The bull market of the last few years has been built on the twin assumptions that globalization will continue, and that interest rates will remain low for years to come. These convictions have propelled an exponential wave of optimization. As the coronavirus calls key assumptions into question, the worry is that the giant bubble which sits at the heart of the system may be about to burst.

    9
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    After A Trade Deal, Then What?

    So far, so predictable: President Donald Trump’s weekend tweets extending the deadline for US-China trade talks past March 1 made clear his intention to get a deal done, most likely in the second half of March when Xi Jinping pays a visit to Mar-a-Lago. A deal is now almost certain to happen; the live questions are what will be in it and what impact it will have.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Taking Intellectual Property Seriously

    It is easy to forget that the US trade war with China is founded on the issue of intellectual property—and to miss the fact that, despite the breakdown in trade talks, China is pushing through many legal changes to improve IP protection. But as Dan explains, while the technical improvements are real, so is political pressure on the legal system.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Risk Of Falling Behind The Epidemic Curve

    China’s government was slow off the mark in responding to the initial outbreak of the new coronavirus. Although the government is now fully mobilized to fight the outbreak, it risks falling behind the curve again—this time in responding to the economic damage wrought by its extended shutdown of normal life and business activity.

    4
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Getting Serious About Biosecurity

    China’s government is rethinking its approach to biosecurity in order to reduce the odds of future outbreaks of infectious disease. In this piece, Lance explains what treating biosecurity as a part of national security will mean for regulation, public health and the biotechnology sector.

    1
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Trade Wars: A China Expert Roundtable

    Last week’s sharp equity market sell-off followed the US effectively threatening China with a trade war. In this report, Arthur, Long and Andrew address China’s capacity to strike back and explore what it means for the relationship between the world’s two biggest economies.

    1
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Diminishing Market Impact Of Tariffs

    After the US imposed its first major round of tariffs on Chinese goods last September, the S&P 500 sold off by -20%. After the second round went into force, it fell -6.8%. And since President Trump announced a third round, it has sold off by -6.1%. It seems each successive escalation in the trade war is having a smaller impact on the US stock market.

    2
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Ten Bears That Could See Off Goldilocks In 2020

    With interest rates low, and growth that is neither too hot nor too cold, Anatole remains firmly in the “Goldilocks lives on” camp. But while a continued bull run is the most probable outcome for 2020, bears still lurk in the shadows. In this paper Anatole identifies the 10 main macroeconomic, political and sector risks that could derail markets in 2020.

    4
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Causes And Consequences Of Hong Kong Dollar Strength

    Last summer, as Hong Kong’s police seemed set to run out of tear gas, betting against the Hong Kong dollar peg seemed like a safe bet. It hasn’t exactly worked out that way, and in recent weeks the Hong Kong dollar has strengthened to the strong side of its limited trading band. In this piece, Louis explains why.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Back To Work, Not Back To Normal

    China’s businesses are starting to get back to work, but the economy is still very far from normal. On Monday, the extended holiday declared by the government to help contain the coronavirus outbreak came to an end (except in Hubei province). But most businesses still face great difficulty in resuming their normal activities.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    First Blood In The Long Tech War

    Washington has opened a new front in the US-China economic cold war by slapping controls on exports of all “commodities, software and technology” to Chinese chipmaker Fujian Jinhua Integrated Circuit. The breath of the national security justification cited for this action escalates the US-China confrontation over technology to a new level.

    5
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    How Much Risk Of A US-China Economic Cold War?

    Donald Trump’s announcement of tariffs on US imports of steel and aluminum looks like the first salvo in a new trade war. But while Thursday’s measures will mostly affect America’s closest allies, behind the scenes the US administration appears to be preparing a more focused campaign directed against China. In this analysis, Arthur examines the political maneuvering over trade within the Trump team, explains why the hardliners are now in the...

    6
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    China-Bashing In A Political Season

    Signs are growing that the US and China will have a mini-deal on trade ready by the time Trump and Xi meet at the mid-November APEC summit. The key questions are whether opposition from US hardliners could derail the deal at the last moment, and whether the campaign to “decouple” the two economies will be knocked back if there is a deal.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Video: What Drives Chinese Equities

    Chinese equity markets are up around 26% for the year. Yet there has been no recovery in earnings growth, and the trade war and shaky domestic economic momentum continue to loom. The reason for the market optimism is expectations of supportive government policies, whether or not those expectations are valid.

    0
Show me: results