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    Gavekal Research

    India's Not All Doom And Gloom

    India’s RBI cut policy rates by 50bp yesterday, and, to our knowledge, not a single newspaper or brokerage reported this news in a positive light. True, the cut is marginal and will probably not cause a significant uptick in growth given poor sentiment, high inflation and commodity prices, and an incontinent fiscal policy. But it is important to keep things in perspective. Indian growth estimates still range around 7%. Structurally, India is...

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    Gavekal Research

    Demographic Dividend Or Demographic Nightmare?

    Among the Herculean challenges facing the government of India, job creation ranks first. Simply put, the number of new jobs is not keeping up with economic growth—a huge problem in a country where half the population is aged below 25. India needs to create roughly 8mn new jobs every year to absorb new entrants into the labor force. In addition, it needs to create more opportunities both for farmers seeking better-paying non-agricultural work and...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Supply-Chain Migration Begins

    The US-China trade conflict has changed the equation for multinational companies’ supply chains in China. Higher tariffs and increased uncertainty are pushing some firms to invest more in other locations. But Dan argues that most firms have strong reasons to stay in China, so the shift in supply chains will be more of a trickle than a flood.

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    Gavekal Research

    India's Borrowed Reserves and Other Headaches

    With its twin deficit status, India has seen the worst equity and currency performance of any major Asian country so far this year. One would expect that its foreign reserve position would reflect this disfavor, but in fact India’s foreign international reserves have expanded by nearly +7% in the past year, to $319bn, even as its trade deficit widened. How can we explain this conundrum?

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    Gavekal Research

    Software: China tries the India thing

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2001-03-01.You can download it here: 0082_ceq2001q1_sec3_03software.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    The Moment Of Truth For Emerging Markets

    A strong US dollar, rising interest rates and higher oil prices are a toxic mix for emerging markets. A month ago it was only Turkey and Argentina that were looking really sick, punished by investors for their structural imbalances. But in recent weeks nervousness has engulfed the currencies of Indonesia, South Africa, India and—most notably—Brazil. This leaves the emerging markets facing a pivotal moment. Until now, the assets of those emerging...

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    Gavekal Research

    India’s Great Leap Forward

    India, finally, is on course to become a genuine economic power. Calling it a “Treaty of Rome” moment goes too far, but India’s Goods and Services Tax could prove nearly as significant as the agreement that created the European common market. India has been a strong political state for nearly 70 years, but its fragmented economy prevents goods and many services from moving freely within its borders. The GST promises to create a genuinely common...

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    Gavekal Research

    The Cost of Onions, and Money, in India

    India is obviously not sitting pretty at the moment. Like all emerging markets, its CPI and WPI are very sensitive to rising energy and food prices, as reflected in the political fallout over soaring onion prices, which has led to raids on “hoarders,” strikes by onion traders and opportunistic sit-ins staged by the opposition BJP (which protested wearing onion garlands—see picture). And unlike some emerging markets, India’s pain is not offset by...

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    Gavekal Research

    This Century's Suez Crisis

    China’s “Belt and Road” initiative is a clear bid by Beijing to challenge the incumbent imperial power: the US. And in an age when the highest-value commodities are not physical goods, but the binary digits zipping around the world at the speed of light, the battleground of this struggle for dominance will be telecommunication networks.

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    Gavekal Research

    The Enemy Of My Enemy Is My Friend

    The British prime minister was not the only one thwarted by a vote last week. Despite Narendra Modi’s personal efforts and heavyweight backing from Washington, India failed in its attempt to join the 48-country Nuclear Suppliers Group. It was a bruising setback for Modi, who has spent two years energetically trying to boost India’s global clout. Yet the result itself was less significant than the US support for India in the face of Chinese...

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    Gavekal Research

    The Big Questions For 2019

    The last quarter of 2018 proved to be something of a horror show for most investors and despite this year starting with a firmer tone, the investment landscape looks to have changed in a fairly profound way. In this report, Louis considers the major shifts in the investment environment and asks whether these conditions will persist through 2019.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Why China Can Succeed In Tech

    Technology is at the heart of the US-China trade conflict. The US fears that China will challenge its technological leadership, and those fears are not without foundation. In this piece, Dan argues that China is in fact likely to succeed in many of its technological goals—but because of successful companies rather than big government plans.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Chinese Internet Ventures Abroad

    Chinese internet companies are now the only credible challengers to the global hegemony of US internet companies. In this piece, Dan explains that, although they may not directly challenge Google or Facebook, the Chinese firms are pushing abroad and are well on their way to becoming a formidable presence in developing countries.

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    Gavekal Research

    Countering The Belt And Road

    In its escalating rivalry with China, the US has a new target: the Belt and Road Initiative. But both the US and Europe are struggling to redefine the way they win friends and influence people with development finance. Tom argues that the somewhat quieter middle way being pursued by Japan is delivering it both influence and profits.

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    Gavekal Research

    The Tangled Web of India's Fuel Policy

    As we have highlighted in previous research (see Subsidies – Pushing Beyond The Tipping Point, Peels of Discontent, India’s Surprisingly Tough Budget), high inflation and budget deficits remain two of India’s most pressing macroeconomic concerns. One significant contributor to India’s deficit is its fuel policy—which will likely cost the government some 2.4% of GDP in the current fiscal year. Yet the country’s fuel policy is so convoluted, that...

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    Gavekal Research

    The Next Target Of Trump’s Firepower

    In today’s Daily, Arthur Kroeber offered his analysis of the weekend’s Trump-Xi summit in Buenos Aires. In this short report, Louis takes a slightly different tack, reviewing the series of tumultuous events in recent weeks. His conclusion is that few investors’ portfolios are well positioned for the probable outcome.

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    Gavekal Research

    Indian Politics And The Cycle

    Despite its soaring equity markets, India had a sticky year in 2017. Quarterly GDP growth dipped below 6% in the summer, laid low by disruptive reforms, bad debt, anemic credit and weak private investment (see India’s Economic Funk). The outlook for 2018 is healthier: the twin shocks from demonetization and the introduction of a goods and sales tax have largely dissipated, consumption has rebounded, and manufacturing is accelerating. Feeble...

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    Gavekal Research

    India’s Logistics Revolution

    India's logistics sector is so inefficient that getting goods from producers to consumers accounts for about 17% of national output, or twice the level in most developed economies. The result is retarded growth and weakened competitiveness. But thanks to a nationwide goods and services tax, growing consumer demand and rising land prices, consolidation and modernization is afoot across the sector.

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    Gavekal Research

    GaveKal Daily - India's Monsoon Season of Scandals

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-12-07.You can download it here: GKDailyReport1012071.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    What's Changed In The Oil Market

    “Sanctions are coming,” proclaimed Donald Trump in a tweet last week, three days before the imposition of the latest US embargo on Iranian oil exports. The oil market was not impressed. Since late September, when crude hit four-year highs, the Brent price has slumped -16.7% from US$86.29 to US$71.91, with WTI falling -19.1%.

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