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    Gavekal Research

    China And India's Outperformance

    One of our fears in the days that followed the QE3 announcement (see The Markets Since QE3) was that a lot of ‘weak hands’ would get ‘sucked in’ to purchasing risk assets; i.e. fairly uncommitted investors who nonetheless felt that, because of the Fed’s unorthodox actions, the risk of sitting on the sidelines was simply too great. Our concern was that if markets failed to sustain upside momentum, such investors would likely be the first to rush...

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    Gavekal Research

    Why Indian Tourists Are The New Chinese

    Some 25mn Indians traveled abroad last year, making sub-continent tourists increasingly important for a range of major destinations. They may not yet rival Chinese travellers who are by far the biggest group of globe-trotters, but in this piece Tom argues that is only a matter of time. Already, it is cheaper for Indians to travel to a range of overseas destinations than within India itself and the middle class increasingly has the travel bug.

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    Gavekal Research

    Will India Be The Next China?

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    Gavekal Research

    GaveKal Daily - Trouble in India

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2008-06-23.You can download it here: GaveKalDailyTroubleinIndia.pdf

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    The Global Car Industry Catches Chinese Flu

    If the auto industry is a bellwether of global economic health, then much of the world is looking sick. The second half of 2018 was painful for carmakers in all the major auto markets, and 2019 is shaping up to be as bad. Is this just a passing malady that carmakers will soon shrug off, or a chronic condition they will have to manage for years to come?

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    Gavekal Research

    China And India: Myths Exploded

    China and India are both huge countries with an increasing presence in export and resource markets, so it is not surprising that a lot of ink has been spilled in the last few years over the impact of “Chindia.” There is also a ceaseless and not very interesting stream of commentary berating India for not growing as fast as China, and China for not being as democratic as India. Very little of this punditry has added to anyone’s understanding in a...

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    Gavekal Research

    China and India: myths exploded

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2006-02-21.You can download it here: 0274_CEQA_2006_13_China-India.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    India: Growth & Reform For Re-Election

    With inflation still high, the Reserve Bank of India yet again refused to cut rates yesterday. Investors may be disappointed, but the RBI made the right choice. Though inflation has begun to decelerate, the fact is that India’s real interest rates are not particularly high in historical terms (see chart below). India’s major problem in 2012 has been a government paralysis on policy, or even the most basic economic actions like approving...

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    Gavekal Research

    The Indian Summer

    Tomorrow India will roll out its most important economic reform since the early 1990s. The Goods and Services Tax will transform the country’s 29 states, which run semi-autonomous fiscal systems, into a single market. Backed by strong fundamentals, Modi’s reform agenda is playing well with investors: MSCI India is up 19% this year, foreigners are piling into Indian bonds, and FDI is at record levels. Yet, look closer and a weaker economy emerges...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    That Wasn't So Bad, Actually

    China watchers have been bracing themselves for some ugly economic indicators in January and February. Yet the first official data for 2019 were not actually that bad. As Andrew explains, the economy is clearly slowing, but it’s not going into an uncontrolled dive. The government’s moderate policy response is thus still on track to steady growth.

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    Gavekal Research

    India Pays The Price For Reform Backslide

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    Gavekal Research

    Beyond The Yield Curve Inversion

    The current yield curve inversion and softness in growth data are curious developments, given that the four prices that matter most for the global economy—long bond yields, corporate credit spreads, the oil price, and the value of the US dollar—are all relatively favorable. Louis and Charles weigh five different explanations for what may be going on—from bullish to highly bearish—and examine the investment implications.

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    Gavekal Research

    India’s Property Dream

    In India, home building constitutes just 1% of GDP and fails to satisfy basic amenity demand—some 60mn Indians live in urban dwellings deemed unfit for human habitation. The good news is that India is getting serious about supporting residential property development, which could yet have a China-like impact on domestic demand and global commodity markets.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    India's Prickly Politics Of Recovery

    India’s GDP growth fell to 6.1% in 4Q11, mining the depths it hit during the global financial crisis. This is probably a cyclical trough, but the growth pickup in coming quarters is likely to be weak. With inflation running on the high side and the oil price rising, the Reserve Bank of India has little room to cut rates to boost growth. So it is up to the government to revive languid private investment by cutting its budget deficit and pushing...

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    The Chinese Juggernaut Will Roll On

    In 2015, I sat down with Sri Lanka’s then-new finance minister. The “teardrop of India” had recently elected a fresh government, kicking out a corrupt president widely regarded as in China’s pocket. Vowing to scrutinize all Chinese deals, the new leaders suspended a massive real estate project in Colombo harbor. “The high costs come from nothing other than corruption, but we do not want taxpayers to pay for the past decisions of a corrupt regime...

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    Gavekal Research

    A New Risk-Reward Equation In EMs

    US markets have come back to earth with a bump on a reassessment of risk and growth prospects. As a result, investors are betting on a less hawkish Federal Reserve and a weaker US dollar, both of which are a boon to hard-pressed emerging markets. The question is: do investors gain more from a more favorable US dollar liquidity environment than they lose from a growth picture clouded by a slowing China and unresolved trade tensions?

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    Gavekal Research

    Can India Get The Lay Of The Land?

    On the ladder to economic development, India missed the first rung. The transformation from an agricultural to an industrial economy is the essence of development, so the process must begin on the farm. But where northeast Asian countries implemented land reforms to boost productivity and rural savings, India balked. And where Japan, Taiwan, Korea and China enhanced the benefits of land reform with the right public investments and private...

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    Gavekal Research

    A Very Indian Budget

    New Delhi swung into election mode yesterday, a full 15 months before the election. Finance minister Arun Jaitley pledged his budget for 2018-19 would build a “New India,” but it was really a populist ploy to buy votes. After a tough economic year and a disappointing election result in Modi’s home state of Gujarat, the ruling BJP needed to shore up its core support.

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    Gavekal Research

    The Four Prices That Matter

    It is Gavekal’s longstanding mission to develop simple principles that investors can use to navigate complicated financial markets. In this vein, one of our core tenets is that four prices matter more than all others, and together these determine the level of global economic activity and of investor risk appetite. Let us see where they stand as we head deeper into 2019.

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    Gavekal Research

    Selling India’s Housing Dream — Part I

    India’s economy is in a slump, laid low by a chronic lack of investment and weak job creation. How can India both revive growth and generate jobs for millions of low-skilled workers? Tom argues that one answer lies in the construction sector, specifically the mass buildout of affordable housing.

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