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    Gavekal Research

    Will India Rise As Commodities Fall?

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    The Big Lesson From Argentina

    One of the reasons this summer’s sell-off in Argentinian debt was so vicious was that few international banks these days are willing to make markets in such “exotic” bonds, and even fewer are prepared to hold a substantial inventory. As a result, when foreign investors rushed for the exit, there was no market. But as Louis explains in this paper, the problem is hardly unique to Argentina. Markets a lot closer to home could face similar trouble.

    8
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    Gavekal Research

    India’s Logistics Revolution

    India's logistics sector is so inefficient that getting goods from producers to consumers accounts for about 17% of national output, or twice the level in most developed economies. The result is retarded growth and weakened competitiveness. But thanks to a nationwide goods and services tax, growing consumer demand and rising land prices, consolidation and modernization is afoot across the sector.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Back To A Three-Figure Oil Price

    Oil broke higher on Monday, with the price of Brent decisively breaching US$80/bbl, a level it had repeatedly tested since early May, when the US administration announced it would reimpose sanctions on Iranian exports. The immediate trigger for the break-out was the decision at the weekend by the Opec cartel plus Russia not to increase their formal output target in the near term. At first glance, the market response might appear an over-reaction...

    5
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    Gavekal Research

    India: Reforms On A Knife Edge

    India’s stock market soared last month after the government announced a slew of market openings for foreign investors as well as a long-awaited diesel price hike. But enthusiasm is already waning, and earlier this week the RBI hit the nail on the head when explaining why: sentiment will only hold if the announced reforms are followed up with deeper action. Unfortunately, it is by no means confirmed that India has embarked on a new era of...

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    Gavekal Research

    China And India's Outperformance

    One of our fears in the days that followed the QE3 announcement (see The Markets Since QE3) was that a lot of ‘weak hands’ would get ‘sucked in’ to purchasing risk assets; i.e. fairly uncommitted investors who nonetheless felt that, because of the Fed’s unorthodox actions, the risk of sitting on the sidelines was simply too great. Our concern was that if markets failed to sustain upside momentum, such investors would likely be the first to rush...

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    Gavekal Research

    How To Assess The Stresses On EMs

    Emerging market equities are officially in a bear market, with the MSCI EM index down -20% from its January peak. EM-related commodities are also hurting, notably copper which has fallen -18% since June. The central question now is whether one should steer clear of all EM assets, because the rout is general and likely to get worse; or if one should keep an eye out for buying opportunities here and there. With some trepidation, we advise the...

    4
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    Gavekal Research

    India’s Property Dream

    In India, home building constitutes just 1% of GDP and fails to satisfy basic amenity demand—some 60mn Indians live in urban dwellings deemed unfit for human habitation. The good news is that India is getting serious about supporting residential property development, which could yet have a China-like impact on domestic demand and global commodity markets.

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    Gavekal Research

    Selling India’s Housing Dream — Part I

    India’s economy is in a slump, laid low by a chronic lack of investment and weak job creation. How can India both revive growth and generate jobs for millions of low-skilled workers? Tom argues that one answer lies in the construction sector, specifically the mass buildout of affordable housing.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Will India Be The Next China?

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    10
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Pragmatism Will Prevail On Iranian Oil

    The US is preparing to re-impose sanctions on Iran, threatening to punish any country that continues to buy its oil. China has struck a defiant tone, and many analysts expect Chinese oil companies to ignore the US sanctions. But in this piece, Yanmei argues that Chinese importers have little choice but to sharply reduce their purchases from Iran.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    The Near Term Direction Of The US Dollar

    The US dollar is trading bang on its 50-day moving average, and roughly where it was a year ago. Hence, it is tempting to conclude that it has not done much over the past 12 months. That would, of course, be wrong for the post-April rebound in the dollar explains the summer meltdown in emerging markets. And every investor today stands ready to increase or decrease risk in their portfolios depending on the next tick in the US dollar.

    17
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    Gavekal Research

    GaveKal Daily - Trouble in India

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2008-06-23.You can download it here: GaveKalDailyTroubleinIndia.pdf

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Why The US Cannot Win A Trade War

    The US has made a fundamental policy mistake in pursuing a trade war against China. A Keynesian macroeconomic analysis shows that the US will likely be worst affected by the conflict, while China should escape unscathed and several other emerging markets could be clear gainers. This sell-off may be an ideal opportunity to "buy the dip" in EMs

    7
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    Gavekal Research

    Misunderstanding Today’s EMs

    Suppose that, like me, you think the global equity bull market has a few more years to run and hence the sell-off which culminated with Turkish debt being downgraded two weeks ago was a merely a correction. Where are the best opportunities to “buy the dip”? The answer depends on whether you also share my view about the underlying causes of this year’s market setbacks.

    4
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Global Rise Of Chinese Smartphones

    Xiaomi and other Chinese smartphone makers are among the first Chinese consumer-goods companies to have gained significant market share outside of China. In this piece, Dan explains where their success has come from and assesses their prospects: Chinese smartphones may not displace Apple and Samsung, but can limit their gains in emerging markets.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    India: Growth & Reform For Re-Election

    With inflation still high, the Reserve Bank of India yet again refused to cut rates yesterday. Investors may be disappointed, but the RBI made the right choice. Though inflation has begun to decelerate, the fact is that India’s real interest rates are not particularly high in historical terms (see chart below). India’s major problem in 2012 has been a government paralysis on policy, or even the most basic economic actions like approving...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    China And India: Myths Exploded

    China and India are both huge countries with an increasing presence in export and resource markets, so it is not surprising that a lot of ink has been spilled in the last few years over the impact of “Chindia.” There is also a ceaseless and not very interesting stream of commentary berating India for not growing as fast as China, and China for not being as democratic as India. Very little of this punditry has added to anyone’s understanding in a...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    China and India: myths exploded

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2006-02-21.You can download it here: 0274_CEQA_2006_13_China-India.pdf

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Indian Politics And The Cycle

    Despite its soaring equity markets, India had a sticky year in 2017. Quarterly GDP growth dipped below 6% in the summer, laid low by disruptive reforms, bad debt, anemic credit and weak private investment (see India’s Economic Funk). The outlook for 2018 is healthier: the twin shocks from demonetization and the introduction of a goods and sales tax have largely dissipated, consumption has rebounded, and manufacturing is accelerating. Feeble...

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