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    Gavekal Research

    GaveKal Daily - India Disappoints

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2009-07-07.You can download it here: GKDailyReport0907071.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    India's Fiscal Fantasies

    After a fall full of hope that reforms would put India back into the stratosphere of growth, it is time to get real. Measures announced in September may have boosted sentiment, but they have a negligible impact on growth (see India: Reforms On A Knife Edge for details). Now focus has shifted to new promises to rein in the fiscal deficit, a vital economic issue as the ballooning deficit has stoked inflation and the cost of money. But these...

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    Gavekal Research

    India Breaks Out (Of Paralysis)

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    Gavekal Research

    India Turns King Coal Importer

    India is an energy-hungry economy which must substantially boost electricity generation if rapid growth is to be sustained. Its problem is a heavy reliance on coal-fired power stations even while domestic coal mine output is stagnant. As a result, Indian power firms last year imported 118 million tons of coal (versus 170mt for China) and, on current trends, may quickly dominate the seaborne trade. Despite a slowing economy, Indian coal demand in...

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    Gavekal Research

    India: A Deeper Crisis Required

    We attended a lunch yesterday where a veteran Indian journalist offered us the following wisdom: “India will reform just like everyone else does: when it has a crisis.” India’s 1Q12 GDP came in at a wretched 5.3% YoY yesterday, even lower than the quarters following the global financial crisis. So the obvious question is: Was that enough of a crisis? Unfortunately, we think the answer is “no”. Even after the global financial crisis, India did...

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    Gavekal Research

    India's Credibility Deficit

    When India’s government announced a reasonably disciplined budget around this time last year, stocks rallied for several weeks afterward. This year’s budget proposal, unveiled on Friday, was viewed with a much more jaundiced eye. In particular, commentators collectively rolled their eyes at the goal to bring the FY12 fiscal deficit target to 5.1% of GDP, from the current 5.9%. And no wonder: this 5.9% compared to last year’s target of 4.6%. The...

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    Gavekal Research

    Is The Fed Really Going To Cause A Crisis?

    Is a crisis in US dollar bond markets really inevitable if the Federal Reserve continues on its current tightening trajectory? Some think so, including Reserve Bank of India governor Urjit Patel, who this month expressed his fears in an op-ed in the Financial Times.

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    Gavekal Research

    Selling India’s Housing Dream — Part II

    When Indians visit China for the first time, it often comes as a shock: China is more materially developed than they could ever have imagined. And when Chinese visit India for the first time, it too comes as a shock: India is even more chaotic, dirty and materially backward than they had been told!

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    Gavekal Research

    China's Options In The Unfolding Trade War

    China is widely seen as having a pretty miserable hand in its trade stand-off with China. However, Louis is not convinced that China has so few options. Here he considers Beijing’s scope for retaliation, and so leverage, from using its financial clout to spook US capital markets to winding up Kim Jong-un to start causing trouble for the US and its allies.

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    Gavekal Research

    Why India Is Worth The Risk

    Ahead of a potential tapering of Federal Reserve bond buying it seems to be a case of “once bitten, twice shy” for investors in Asian emerging market equities—Indonesia, Philippines and Thailand are back near their summer lows. An exception is India which has surged in the last three months on clearer policy settings, an improving current account deficit and a political situation that has moved in a pro-growth direction. On balance, we would...

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    Gavekal Research

    Chinese Power Firms in India

    With India in the process of massively expanding its power generation capacity (targeting US$400bn of investment in the sector over the next five years and an additional 100,000MW of additional electricity capacity), Chinese power equipment makers have been making big inroads into the sector, winning contracts at the expense of their Indian rivals. Chinese banks have approached Delhi for permission to finance at soft rates more than US$50bn of...

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    Gavekal Research

    Can Rajan Rescue India From Disaster?

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    Gavekal Research

    India: A Smart Muddle-Through Story

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    Gavekal Research

    The Case Of The Missing Inflation: US Fiscal Policy

    The US seems set to run huge fiscal deficits for as far as the eye can see, and it is not clear who is going to fund this indulgence. In the fourth instalment of his “missing inflation” investigation Louis considers the options available to the US Treasury and concludes that hard funding choices will likely be ducked by whoever wins the 2020 election.

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    Gavekal Research

    The Two Things That Matter In India

    Indian equities yesterday registered a new peak even as emerging markets remain almost 10% off their early September high. Resurgent optimism toward India’s prospects has been ramped up by a belief that Prime Minister Narendra Modi can return the economy to its high growth path of the mid-2000s. Udith is not convinced of this simple story line, but his contention is that global investors do not need to fret over each twist and turn in India’s...

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    Gavekal Research

    Going Underground (And Overground) In Delhi And Beyond

    India is rapidly adding new urban metro systems, with ten already built, five under construction and 17 in the planning stages. Tom argues that it is following in China’s footsteps, but unlike China, foreign equipment suppliers and contractors look likely to be major beneficiaries of the Indian build-out.

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    Gavekal Research

    Will India Rise As Commodities Fall?

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    Gavekal Research

    The Odd Behavior Of Gold

    Barbarous relic it may be, but I have long looked on gold as a proxy for emerging markets. The logic is that when the emerging market consumer—whether in India, China, Indonesia, Africa or the Middle East—finds himself at the end of the month with extra money in his pocket, he often tends to put that money into gold coins or jewelry. This makes sense if you live in a country with capital controls, or an untrustworthy financial system, under-...

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    Gavekal Research

    In Sweeps The Monsoon

    The summer monsoon lashed across southwest India yesterday, just a few hours after the central bank announced its first interest-rate hike in more than four years. With oil prices stoking inflation and foreign portfolio flows pouring out of the country, the Reserve Bank of India followed the lead of other emerging markets battling the global US dollar squeeze. Yet the darkest storm clouds are now political, as Prime Minister Narendra Modi...

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    Gavekal Research

    India: Reforms On A Knife Edge

    India’s stock market soared last month after the government announced a slew of market openings for foreign investors as well as a long-awaited diesel price hike. But enthusiasm is already waning, and earlier this week the RBI hit the nail on the head when explaining why: sentiment will only hold if the announced reforms are followed up with deeper action. Unfortunately, it is by no means confirmed that India has embarked on a new era of...

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