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E.g., 19-02-2020
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Chinese Internet Ventures Abroad

    Chinese internet companies are now the only credible challengers to the global hegemony of US internet companies. In this piece, Dan explains that, although they may not directly challenge Google or Facebook, the Chinese firms are pushing abroad and are well on their way to becoming a formidable presence in developing countries.

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    Gavekal Research

    Mansions in Communist India

    We recently visited Kochi, a port city in the southwest Indian state of Kerala. Fort Kochi, formerly a Portuguese and then Dutch colony, is a major tourist destination. Most visitors take in Fort Kochi and then head down to the “backwaters” for a boat tour of this a chain of brackish lakes and waterways that head inland along the Keralan coast. The drive down from Kochi to the city of Alleppey, where most set off into the backwaters, yielded...

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    Gavekal Research

    Countering The Belt And Road

    In its escalating rivalry with China, the US has a new target: the Belt and Road Initiative. But both the US and Europe are struggling to redefine the way they win friends and influence people with development finance. Tom argues that the somewhat quieter middle way being pursued by Japan is delivering it both influence and profits.

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    Gavekal Research

    Our 2018 Holiday Reading List

    “Books,” wrote Anthony Powell, “do furnish a room.” As author of the million-word, 12-volume A Dance To The Music of Time, Powell was something of an authority on the subject. But it is unlikely even his library was as eclectically furnished as Gavekal’s. If anything, our 2018 holiday reading list is even more varied than those of recent years. Sure, we’ve read and reviewed the economic and financial heavyweights: Barry Eichengreen on currencies...

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    Gavekal Research

    What's Changed In The Oil Market

    “Sanctions are coming,” proclaimed Donald Trump in a tweet last week, three days before the imposition of the latest US embargo on Iranian oil exports. The oil market was not impressed. Since late September, when crude hit four-year highs, the Brent price has slumped -16.7% from US$86.29 to US$71.91, with WTI falling -19.1%.

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    Gavekal Research

    India's Fiscal Fantasies

    After a fall full of hope that reforms would put India back into the stratosphere of growth, it is time to get real. Measures announced in September may have boosted sentiment, but they have a negligible impact on growth (see India: Reforms On A Knife Edge for details). Now focus has shifted to new promises to rein in the fiscal deficit, a vital economic issue as the ballooning deficit has stoked inflation and the cost of money. But these...

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    Gavekal Research

    GaveKal Daily - India Disappoints

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2009-07-07.You can download it here: GKDailyReport0907071.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    India Breaks Out (Of Paralysis)

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    Gavekal Research

    India Turns King Coal Importer

    India is an energy-hungry economy which must substantially boost electricity generation if rapid growth is to be sustained. Its problem is a heavy reliance on coal-fired power stations even while domestic coal mine output is stagnant. As a result, Indian power firms last year imported 118 million tons of coal (versus 170mt for China) and, on current trends, may quickly dominate the seaborne trade. Despite a slowing economy, Indian coal demand in...

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    Gavekal Research

    India: A Deeper Crisis Required

    We attended a lunch yesterday where a veteran Indian journalist offered us the following wisdom: “India will reform just like everyone else does: when it has a crisis.” India’s 1Q12 GDP came in at a wretched 5.3% YoY yesterday, even lower than the quarters following the global financial crisis. So the obvious question is: Was that enough of a crisis? Unfortunately, we think the answer is “no”. Even after the global financial crisis, India did...

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    Gavekal Research

    India's Credibility Deficit

    When India’s government announced a reasonably disciplined budget around this time last year, stocks rallied for several weeks afterward. This year’s budget proposal, unveiled on Friday, was viewed with a much more jaundiced eye. In particular, commentators collectively rolled their eyes at the goal to bring the FY12 fiscal deficit target to 5.1% of GDP, from the current 5.9%. And no wonder: this 5.9% compared to last year’s target of 4.6%. The...

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    Gavekal Research

    Why India Is Worth The Risk

    Ahead of a potential tapering of Federal Reserve bond buying it seems to be a case of “once bitten, twice shy” for investors in Asian emerging market equities—Indonesia, Philippines and Thailand are back near their summer lows. An exception is India which has surged in the last three months on clearer policy settings, an improving current account deficit and a political situation that has moved in a pro-growth direction. On balance, we would...

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    Gavekal Research

    The Moment Of Truth For Emerging Markets

    A strong US dollar, rising interest rates and higher oil prices are a toxic mix for emerging markets. A month ago it was only Turkey and Argentina that were looking really sick, punished by investors for their structural imbalances. But in recent weeks nervousness has engulfed the currencies of Indonesia, South Africa, India and—most notably—Brazil. This leaves the emerging markets facing a pivotal moment. Until now, the assets of those emerging...

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    Gavekal Research

    The EM Value Question

    After a grim seven-month sell-off, it is natural to ask whether emerging markets now offer attractive value. Since its January peak, the MSCI emerging markets index has fallen -22%. The corollary has been a deep derating, which has left EM equities trading below their long term mean P/E ratios. However, a healthy dose of caution is warranted.

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    Gavekal Research

    The Two Things That Matter In India

    Indian equities yesterday registered a new peak even as emerging markets remain almost 10% off their early September high. Resurgent optimism toward India’s prospects has been ramped up by a belief that Prime Minister Narendra Modi can return the economy to its high growth path of the mid-2000s. Udith is not convinced of this simple story line, but his contention is that global investors do not need to fret over each twist and turn in India’s...

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    Gavekal Research

    The Indian Summer

    Tomorrow India will roll out its most important economic reform since the early 1990s. The Goods and Services Tax will transform the country’s 29 states, which run semi-autonomous fiscal systems, into a single market. Backed by strong fundamentals, Modi’s reform agenda is playing well with investors: MSCI India is up 19% this year, foreigners are piling into Indian bonds, and FDI is at record levels. Yet, look closer and a weaker economy emerges...

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    Gavekal Research

    Can Rajan Rescue India From Disaster?

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    Gavekal Research

    Chinese Power Firms in India

    With India in the process of massively expanding its power generation capacity (targeting US$400bn of investment in the sector over the next five years and an additional 100,000MW of additional electricity capacity), Chinese power equipment makers have been making big inroads into the sector, winning contracts at the expense of their Indian rivals. Chinese banks have approached Delhi for permission to finance at soft rates more than US$50bn of...

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    Gavekal Research

    India: A Smart Muddle-Through Story

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    Gavekal Research

    A Very Indian Budget

    New Delhi swung into election mode yesterday, a full 15 months before the election. Finance minister Arun Jaitley pledged his budget for 2018-19 would build a “New India,” but it was really a populist ploy to buy votes. After a tough economic year and a disappointing election result in Modi’s home state of Gujarat, the ruling BJP needed to shore up its core support.

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