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E.g., 19-02-2020
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    Gavekal Research

    Why India Can Move Faster

    India’s lack of efficient roads and railways lowers productivity, depresses aggregate demand, raises costs and stymies trade—all impediments to economic growth. The good news is that India’s latest infrastructure push, financed initially by public investment, is showing signs of traction. The latest government budget committed a hefty US$32bn to roads, rail and other infrastructure, a big increase within a broader environment of fiscal...

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    Why Brazil Trumps India

    The last year has been tough for emerging market investors—a recent survey showed that only 20% of actively managed EM funds beat their benchmark compared to an average 60-70% over the past five years. Recent weeks have not provided much respite with out-of-favor, commodity-rich markets like Russia and Brazil going on a tear, while much loved darlings such as India have taken a pounding.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    The Four Prices That Matter

    It is Gavekal’s longstanding mission to develop simple principles that investors can use to navigate complicated financial markets. In this vein, one of our core tenets is that four prices matter more than all others, and together these determine the level of global economic activity and of investor risk appetite. Let us see where they stand as we head deeper into 2019.

    12
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    Gavekal Research

    Making In Delhi

    Narendra Modi’s “Make in India” initiative is supposed to transform India from an industrial laggard into a global manufacturing hub. Tom and Udith recently kicked the tires in the industrial heartlands surrounding Delhi and can confirm that China, for now, does not have serious competition. Yet they found some surprisingly encouraging developments that point to the policy in pockets displaying genuine success.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Is The Fed Really Going To Cause A Crisis?

    Is a crisis in US dollar bond markets really inevitable if the Federal Reserve continues on its current tightening trajectory? Some think so, including Reserve Bank of India governor Urjit Patel, who this month expressed his fears in an op-ed in the Financial Times.

    5
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    Gavekal Research

    A New Risk-Reward Equation In EMs

    US markets have come back to earth with a bump on a reassessment of risk and growth prospects. As a result, investors are betting on a less hawkish Federal Reserve and a weaker US dollar, both of which are a boon to hard-pressed emerging markets. The question is: do investors gain more from a more favorable US dollar liquidity environment than they lose from a growth picture clouded by a slowing China and unresolved trade tensions?

    4
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    Gavekal Research

    Why Indian Tourists Are The New Chinese

    Some 25mn Indians traveled abroad last year, making sub-continent tourists increasingly important for a range of major destinations. They may not yet rival Chinese travellers who are by far the biggest group of globe-trotters, but in this piece Tom argues that is only a matter of time. Already, it is cheaper for Indians to travel to a range of overseas destinations than within India itself and the middle class increasingly has the travel bug.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Going Underground (And Overground) In Delhi And Beyond

    India is rapidly adding new urban metro systems, with ten already built, five under construction and 17 in the planning stages. Tom argues that it is following in China’s footsteps, but unlike China, foreign equipment suppliers and contractors look likely to be major beneficiaries of the Indian build-out.

    1
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    Gavekal Research

    India: Stay Or Go?

    The world’s largest democratic election is all over, bar the shouting, and results will be announced tomorrow. Polls point to a decisive win for the Narendra Modi-led Bharatiya Janata Party which is pro-business and promises a clean sweep of policy. Equity investors have duly jumped on the bandwagon since India is one of the few emerging markets with a decent growth story. But with the market having consistently made new highs over the last...

    1
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    Gavekal Research

    Buy India On Bank Reform

    In recent months India has offered investors incrementally bad news due to bad monsoon rains, the government suffering a series of political missteps and a tougher external financing environment as higher US interest rates are contemplated. Moreover, the gradual rise in the oil price has diminished the growth-boosting dividend that India won in the second half of last year. So it was pleasing to get some “good India” news yesterday with the...

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    Video: On India's Growth

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    In Sweeps The Monsoon

    The summer monsoon lashed across southwest India yesterday, just a few hours after the central bank announced its first interest-rate hike in more than four years. With oil prices stoking inflation and foreign portfolio flows pouring out of the country, the Reserve Bank of India followed the lead of other emerging markets battling the global US dollar squeeze. Yet the darkest storm clouds are now political, as Prime Minister Narendra Modi...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    This Century's Suez Crisis

    China’s “Belt and Road” initiative is a clear bid by Beijing to challenge the incumbent imperial power: the US. And in an age when the highest-value commodities are not physical goods, but the binary digits zipping around the world at the speed of light, the battleground of this struggle for dominance will be telecommunication networks.

    7
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Supply-Chain Migration Begins

    The US-China trade conflict has changed the equation for multinational companies’ supply chains in China. Higher tariffs and increased uncertainty are pushing some firms to invest more in other locations. But Dan argues that most firms have strong reasons to stay in China, so the shift in supply chains will be more of a trickle than a flood.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    The Big Questions For 2019

    The last quarter of 2018 proved to be something of a horror show for most investors and despite this year starting with a firmer tone, the investment landscape looks to have changed in a fairly profound way. In this report, Louis considers the major shifts in the investment environment and asks whether these conditions will persist through 2019.

    3
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    Gavekal Research

    Selling India’s Housing Dream — Part II

    When Indians visit China for the first time, it often comes as a shock: China is more materially developed than they could ever have imagined. And when Chinese visit India for the first time, it too comes as a shock: India is even more chaotic, dirty and materially backward than they had been told!

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Why China Can Succeed In Tech

    Technology is at the heart of the US-China trade conflict. The US fears that China will challenge its technological leadership, and those fears are not without foundation. In this piece, Dan argues that China is in fact likely to succeed in many of its technological goals—but because of successful companies rather than big government plans.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Dialing Back Our India Bullishness

    As India’s new government reaches the 100-day mark it remains unclear whether the improved political mood music is enough to kick-start a fresh investment cycle. Investors are, for now, keeping the faith as inflation moderates and growth stabilizes. Narendra Modi’s government has avoided grand initiatives but is creating the impression of administrative competence. The wrinkle in this nicely spun tale of emerging market redemption remains the...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    The Chinese Juggernaut Will Roll On

    In 2015, I sat down with Sri Lanka’s then-new finance minister. The “teardrop of India” had recently elected a fresh government, kicking out a corrupt president widely regarded as in China’s pocket. Vowing to scrutinize all Chinese deals, the new leaders suspended a massive real estate project in Colombo harbor. “The high costs come from nothing other than corruption, but we do not want taxpayers to pay for the past decisions of a corrupt regime...

    1
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    Gavekal Research

    The Next Target Of Trump’s Firepower

    In today’s Daily, Arthur Kroeber offered his analysis of the weekend’s Trump-Xi summit in Buenos Aires. In this short report, Louis takes a slightly different tack, reviewing the series of tumultuous events in recent weeks. His conclusion is that few investors’ portfolios are well positioned for the probable outcome.

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