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E.g., 01-12-2020
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    Gavekal Research

    The Scars Beneath India’s Cheer

    As India celebrated Diwali this month, there was some reason for cheer on the economic front. After a deep downturn, demand has picked up, the economy is primed to return to growth in the fourth quarter, and the manufacturing sector is firing on all cylinders. Nevertheless, the scars from this year’s contraction will take a long time to heal.

    1
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    Gavekal Research

    India Tackles Rural Reform

    Against an awful economic backdrop, Indian policymakers are pushing through long-awaited reforms to open up agricultural and labor markets. In theory, the reform package should boost competition among buyers, create a national market in farm produce, and help to modernize agriculture by attracting greater private investment.

    3
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    Gavekal Research

    After RCEP: A Tough Ask For Pivot 2.0

    On Sunday, China signed the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership. With the 15-nation trade agreement, Beijing has successfully positioned itself at the center of the region’s trade and investment networks. This will make it hard for US President-Elect Joe Biden to fulfill his pledge to place “America back at the head of the table” in international relations, at least in Asia.

    3
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Race To Decouple

    Both the US and China now seem eager to reduce their mutual economic dependencies. However, such a process is different for either country: Dan explains that China’s reliance on the US is narrow and technical in scope while American dependence on China is more wide-ranging. The US therefore faces more complex challenges in the “race” to decouple.

    7
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    Gavekal Research

    India Macro Update: The Great Covid Crash

    India has taken a bigger economic hit from the pandemic than any other major economy. After reopening its economy in June, business activity is again weakening as the surging number of Covid-19 cases raises the chance of more localized restrictions. Udith and Tom evaluate the government's response and give a prognosis for the economy.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The World’s Best Manufacturer

    The strong performance of China’s manufacturing sector reflects both the country’s success in getting the virus under control as well as its long-established manufacturing strengths. In this report, Dan explains why multinationals are reluctant to leave a country they’ve built up to be the world’s best manufacturer.

    3
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    Gavekal Research

    Different Strokes For Different EM Folks

    Last spring, key beneficiaries of the rich world’s fiscal and monetary largesse were emerging market economies, which enjoyed unprecedented policy flexibility that gave broad-based, if not universal, financial relief. The next turn in this crisis is, however, unlikely to float as many boats, as shown by divergent inflationary trends across EM economies.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    The Three Key Prices: Oil

    In financial markets, there are three prices matter above all: the price of the US dollar, the yield on 10-year US treasuries, and the price of oil. Get the direction of these right, and the other pieces of the investment puzzle fall into place. In the first of a three-part series, Louis examines in depth what could cause the oil price to break out of its current trading range.

    6
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    Gavekal Research

    Pained Tales From The Hills

    On Monday, for the first time since 1975, gunshots were fired on the disputed Himalayan border between India and China.Hundreds of incidents occur along the undemarcated Line of Actual Control every year, but this year’s skirmishes are the most dangerous for at least five decades.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    EM Currencies At A Pivot Point

    Emerging market economies are heavily impacted by their currency’s level against both the US dollar and the Chinese renminbi. As the dollar is a funding currency, most EMs thrive when it is weak. In contrast, China is both a competitor and a key export market for EM economies, and so a weak renminbi poses a deflationary threat. Since late May, emerging markets have faced the ostensibly benign situation of a weaker US dollar and a stronger...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    India’s Pharma Problem

    India, the world’s pharmacy, is in danger of running out of drugs. The source of the danger is India’s deteriorating relationship with China, which provides up to 70% of the bulk ingredients for India’s pharmaceutical industry. Most Indian pharma makers hold at least two months of stock, but if the situation is not resolved, the global pharma supply chain could be disrupted.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    India Eyes Up Uncle Sam

    After the border clash with Chinese troops on June 15, India is on the verge of a strategic reorientation towards the United States that will reshape security in Asia. A full formal military alliance with the US would be a red rag to the Chinese bull, and therefore remains unlikely. But India is set to deepen its strategic partnerships with the US and other like-minded countries, especially Japan and Australia. It will also weaken its ties with...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    A British Mad Man

    The world’s worst performing major currency, stock market and economy have all been located in Britain since Boris Johnson was reelected last December. This is not surprising. With hindsight, his decision to outlaw any possible extension of the Brexit transition period as soon as he was reelected fully justified the switch from bullish to bearish on sterling assets that I recommended immediately after this announcement.

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    The Model Pupil Still Has Problems

    Asia is seen as having had a “good” Covid-19 crisis, as it learnt vital lessons from the 2003 Sars outbreak and its policymakers have been typically more frugal than their Western peers.The problem with such generalizations, argue Udith and Vincent, is that they conceal huge discrepancies among countries.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    India's Mini Bazooka

    India’s finance minister yesterday outlined a US$265bn fiscal package to save the economy. It looks to be just enough to stop a slide into depression but not much more. A worrying factor in its response is an apparent lurch towards protectionism, which would undermine any gains made from much-needed reforms to land and labor markets

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    India Macro Update: End Of The Growth Story

    India has experienced a draconian lockdown that could result in output shrinking by -25-45% in the second quarter of the year. The result will be a sharp worsening in the fiscal deficit and a low structural growth rate that leaves India as just another emerging market rather than a growth story to rival China’s. Udith and Tom consider what it means for asset markets.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Climbing Up The Smartphone Smiling Curve

    Chinese advances in hardware technology have increased the country’s contribution to the global smartphone supply chain. In this report, Dan explains how Chinese firms have increased their value-added in both innovation and branding. Now, he suggests, the main headwinds for Chinese smartphones are no longer technological, but geopolitical.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Three Big Questions For India

    Under one of the world’s most stringent lockdowns, the prospect that India will be devastated by the coronavirus pandemic is receding, and attention is shifting from saving lives to saving the economy. Tom examines the three big questions hanging over the Indian economy to determine how successful the country's recovery is likely to be.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Keep Chasing Asian Yield

    As US equities brush up against new highs and safety assets like gold and treasuries sell off, global risk appetite has risen this week. Investors are betting that a vaccine for Covid-19 is at hand and if not, the world is at least learning to live with the virus. A potential beneficiary of this situation may be Asian bond markets, where quite decent yield can still be had.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    India And The Virus

    India is in the early stages of its Covid-19 epidemic. The economic fallout in the world’s fifth-largest economy will be severe, with well over 100mn casual jobs at risk. Like many emerging economies, India is vulnerable due to a weak medical sector and a lack of fiscal firepower to counter resulting economic shocks.

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