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E.g., 16-01-2022
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    Gavekal Research

    India Macro Update: Not Quite Normal

    India’s economy is normalizing but is still smaller than it was before the pandemic began. Looking forward, changes induced by the pandemic point to a continued uneven recovery. In this quarterly update, Udith and Tom assess what this environment means for Indian asset values at a point when the United States is tightening monetary conditions.

    0
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    Implications Of The Kazakhstan Protests

    Violent protests triggered by rising energy prices have rocked Kazakhstan in recent days, prompting President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev to call in the Russian military in an attempt to restore control. Tom examines what the current unrest means for energy prices and the region’s power balance.

    1
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    Gavekal Research

    Asia’s Manipulative Havens

    In early December, the US Treasury published its half-yearly report card on currency manipulation, in which it softened its criticism of offenders’ foreign exchange policies. When it comes to East Asia, the softening of US criticism is a sign that the Treasury is encouraged the targeted countries are intervening less heavily, allowing their currencies to appreciate.

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    Gavekal Research

    Behind The Absence Of Asian Consumer Inflation

    At a time when headline inflation is running at 30-year highs in both the US and the eurozone, Asia stands out for its absence of abnormal consumer inflation. Now admittedly, emerging Asia is not uniform, yet it is fair to say that across the segment as a whole, consumer inflation is the dog that has failed to bark.This is not necessarily the benign picture it may appear.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Big Blades, Big Dreams

    China is the largest market for wind power and the biggest producer of wind turbines. Yet turbines cannot easily be exported, and Chinese firms have found themselves mostly confined to the domestic market. In this report, Dan explains why China’s large presence in wind power development does not mean that it will be globally dominant.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    India’s Economy Retreats With Modi

    Last week saw India's prime minister Narendra Modi stun political friend and foe alike with a decision to repeal the laws that underpinned his flagship reform of India’s sclerotic agricultural sector. Udith argues that the likely losers from Modi’s U-turn will be the poor, as India’s structural growth prospects have just taken a big knock.

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    Gavekal Research

    When Risk Appetite Returns

    Whenever a currency crisis engulfs an emerging economy, investors nervously look around for the next shoe to drop. After the meltdown this week in the Turkish lira—down -20% in November; -40% year-to-date—precedents from the Asian crisis of 1997-98 to the 2013 taper tantrum suggest contagion might be about to spread to infect the rest of the emerging currency complex. However, despite the broad strength of the US dollar and steep falls in a...

    3
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    Gavekal Research

    Biden’s Impotent Signaling

    Media pundits were quick to dismiss Joe Biden’s release of oil from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve as a failure Tuesday, on the grounds that the price of crude oil promptly rose by 4%. They were harsh. Despite Tuesday’s rise, the price of WTI has actually fallen by around -7% over the last four weeks as the market priced in the prospect of an SPR draw.

    3
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    Gavekal Research

    India Macro Update: A Shaky Recovery

    India is enduring a shaky, stop-start recovery. Headline GDP growth in the April-June quarter came in at a stellar 20%, but base effects are distorting the true picture. The biggest risk for investors, argue Udith and Tom, is an uncertain monetary environment. As the Fed readies to taper its asset purchases, both exports and the bond market are vulnerable to disruption.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Return Of The Kitsune

    In Japanese folklore, a kitsune is a magical, very wily, nine-tailed fox who wriggles out of tricky situations. It resembles our financial markets, which have a doughty ability to manage “tail risks”. Last year, Louis wrote a series of articles looking at such risks and today returns to that theme in a substantially changed investment context.

    2
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    A Conservative But Costly Plan

    A major concern of negotiators and activists at this month’s global climate meetings is the size and credibility of China’s decarbonization commitment. However, as Arthur and Rosealea explain there are good reasons to believe that climate goals will play a large role in China’s policy mix in the coming decade—with large risks to economic growth.

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    Asia’s Taper Resilience Wanes

    In mid-2013, emerging markets faced blanket selling after the Federal Reserve said it would buy fewer assets. In time, investors differentiated between strong and fragile markets, but the damage was still severe. Fast forward eight years and there have been good reasons to think that Asia could happily avoid a rerun of the “taper tantrum”. Vincent is now revising that view.

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    Back On The Road Again

    In the last couple of weeks Louis has been on the road, meeting clients face-to-face for the first time in 18 months. In this report, he distills some of the spirit of those conversations, addressing hot button topics from the sharp run-up in energy and commodity prices, through China’s economic slowdown, to the increase in tensions across the Taiwan Strait.

    11
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Solving The Power Crisis

    To solve China’s power shortages, planners are both liberalizing electricity prices and browbeating mines to produce more coal. In this report, Rosealea explains that while getting through the crisis will require a rebound in coal-fired power, energy price liberalization should support China’s environmental goals in the long run.

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    The Price Of Policy

    Wherever you look, energy prices are shooting up, and shortages abound. The global economy, it seems, is in the grip of a full-blown energy crisis. Drill down, and it appears this is not one crisis, but many. The effects—worsening shortages and surging prices—are much the same in differentregions. But the immediate causes of the crunch seem to differ widely.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Winners And Losers In India’s Dying Democracy

    As India’s economy has weakened, so too have its democratic foundations. Since Narendra Modi’s reelection victory in 2019, “the world’s largest democracy” has flirted with despotism. State institutions have been co-opted, freedoms repressed and minorities attacked. But a handful of listed companies—especially those run by tycoons with personal ties to Modi—are thriving.

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    Gavekal Research

    Evergrande’s International Risks

    The troubles of debt-laden Chinese property developer Evergrande are no Lehman moment, but they do pose a significant risk of international contagion across emerging markets, which investors would be rash to ignore.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    The Anglosphere Doubles Down

    The “Aukus” security partnership sparked a diplomatic explosion when it was unveiled by Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States last week. As the smoke clears, America’s strategy to counter China is becoming clear. But the diplomatic fallout from Aukus also reflects a new reality. How does Europe fit into this brave new world, and how will China respond?

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    Gavekal Research

    India Macro Update: Down But Not Out

    India’s economic recovery was hit by the April-May surge in Covid-19 infections, with the only silver lining being that the second wave was less economically damaging than the first one. With cases now declining and many states opening up, the worst of the economic disruption should be over. However, the outlook for investors in the key asset classes is challenging.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    India Is Running Out Of Road

    After Mumbai and Delhi, Bengaluru is the latest big Indian city to face a second wave of Covid infections. India’s underfunded health system is collapsing, as we feared it could a year ago. Yet markets are shrugging off the crisis: equities are flat, the rupee resilient. Tom and Udith investigate whether this disconnect is likely to persist.

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