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E.g., 15-05-2021
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Biden's Tech War

    The US has changed generals in its tech war against China, but that has not brought a respite in the campaign. President Joe Biden is deploying many of the same sanctions used by the Trump administration, while also looking to invest in extending the US technological lead. In this piece, Dan surveys the state of play in the US-China tech war.

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    Gavekal Research

    The Future Of Chips Is Overcapacity

    Semiconductors are tough to come by these days, and the shortage will be deep and long-lasting. Yet chips are about to turn into more of a commoditized product, just as companies make huge investments in production capacity and governments spend big to achieve self-sufficiency on national security grounds. This will lead to permanent excess capacity.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Population Turning Point Gets Closer

    China’s 2020 census has confirmed that the country’s population could peak around 2025, rather than the consensus forecast of around 2030. Ernan writes that inconsistencies in the data suggest the census figures are overstated; indeed, China’s population may already have peaked in the last year, a decade ahead of schedule.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Screws Tighten On SOE Debts

    China’s central authorities are ramping up their campaign to deal with hidden local-government debt, rolling out new rules and high-level political instructions. In this piece, Xiaoxi explains how this scrutiny will produce more defaults by state-backed firms, but also hopefully clarify the problematic legacy of implicit sovereign guarantees.

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    Gavekal Research

    Strategy Monthly: China’s Multi-Dimensional Tightening

    China’s economic policymakers are using the space afforded them by a rapid economic recovery from the pandemic to refocus on a longer-term effort to redirect resources for strategic and political purposes. The immediate effect is a multi-faceted tightening across many sectors. For investors, this effort may upend old uncertainties and create new risks.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Coming Home For The Holidays

    The number of tourists over China’s five-day Labor Day holiday recovered to 3.2% above 2019 levels, according to the Ministry of Culture & Tourism, although tourism revenue was still 23% below 2019. In this Quick Take, Ernan outlines explains what renewed confidence in domestic travel means for China’s services recovery.

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    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: The Rise Of Regulatory Risk In China

    Risk is alive and well in China even amid a record economic recovery. Antitrust authorities are turning their attention to the rest of China's internet platforms, financial regulators are taking a tougher line and Chinese equity markets are looking a bit wobbly. In yesterday's webinar, our panel of China analysts discussed the latest regulatory developments and their implications for markets.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Steel Price Squeeze Is Here To Stay

    China’s iron and steel prices have broken through their post-financial crisis highs, the result of strong domestic demand, constrained international supply and government plans to curb steel production. In this report, Rosealea explains why prices are likely to remain elevated but slowing demand growth should keep them from rising further.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Meteoric Rise Of Mutual Funds

    The size of China’s equity mutual-fund industry has doubled over the past year, a sharp rise driven by policy shifts and strong performance. While fund performance and fundraising has suffered in 2021, Thomas argues that mutual funds can still help increase the role of institutional investors in China’s volatile, retail-dominated equity markets.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Antitrust Net Widens

    China’s antitrust crackdown on its internet sector is just getting started. Earlier this month, regulators brought in 34 major internet platforms and made clear that abusive business practices will no longer be tolerated. In this report, Ernan explains why firms still focused on trying to outwit the system could suffer disproportionately.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Quest For Semiconductor Sovereignty

    China is using the best-funded industrial policy in history to engineer greater self-reliance in semiconductors. Ambition and a big checkbook, however, do not guarantee success. In this DeepChina report, Dan argues that Chinese chip firms will increase their market share in some segments, but will not make it to the technological frontier.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Curing The Coal Addiction

    China’s reliance on coal is a major hurdle to its goal of reaching carbon neutrality by 2060. The country is gradually improving its energy mix; however, despite these efforts, Rosealea argues that China’s appetite for coal and continued dependence on the energy-intensive construction complex mean that its green transition will be slow and painful.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Macro Update: Calling The Peak

    China’s post-Covid recovery continues, but Q1 should be the peak of the cycle. The strength of the rebound has given policymakers confidence to focus on longer-term issues; the result is a multi-dimensional tightening of policy. In the latest edition of our regular chartbook, the Dragonomics team explains the outlook for the economy and markets.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Taiwan Risk

    With the hardening of the US-China strategic rivalry and technology’s central role in that rivalry, the possibility of a war over Taiwan is one which must be considered. In this report, Arthur explains the importance of the island to both countries and concludes that while the risk of war remains low, it is likely to rise in the next several years.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Next Move In Bond Yields

    Where are China’s government bond yields headed next? Policy and economic fundamentals point downward, but local investors fear rising inflation and leverage could still push yields up. In this piece, Wei argues the risk of a spike in yields is fading, and that any upward move would in any case be a buying opportunity.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Two-Speed Recovery Continues

    Chinese GDP growth lost momentum in 1Q21 according to economic data released on Friday, with broad strength in the industrial sector offset by weakness in household consumption, particularly within services. In this Quick Take, the Dragonomics team dive into China’s Q1 economic figures and explain why they paint a picture of stability.

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    Gavekal Research

    The Huarong Haircut

    In the last two weeks, the bonds of Huarong Asset Management have slumped -30% or more in price in the offshore market, as investors fear either a default or a vicious restructuring which will force them to take painful losses. Wei and Xiaoxi assess the fine political line that China’s authorities must walk to assess the likely extent of the eventual haircut.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Digital Renminbi Steps Out

    The People’s Bank of China is getting closer to rolling out its digital currency, with ever-broader and more public trials of the technology. The focus has been mostly on domestic uses and security issues—but there is more to come. In this piece, Xiaoxi explains what the PBOC is doing to prepare the digital renminbi for use in international trade.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Curbing Mortgage Enthusiasm

    China’s regulators are strengthening their curbs on the property market as its post-pandemic exuberance continues. In this piece, Xiaoxi and Rosealea explain the central bank’s latest moves to curb disguised mortgage lending and cap overall loan growth. The main effect of these controls will be to slow lending to households and cool housing prices.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    What To Do About Capital Inflows

    The surge of foreign interest in China’s bond market has created a novel economic problem for its policymakers: managing sizable inflows of portfolio capital which are pushing up its currency. In this piece, Wei explains how China has tried to encourage capital outflows to balance those inflows, and why that is becoming less necessary.

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