E.g., 26-09-2020
E.g., 26-09-2020
We have found 2402 results.
View by: Grid List
Sort by: Relevancy Date
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Back Door Is Still Closed

    A slew of new government policies has boosted market expectations for China’s infrastructure spending in 2020. But Rosealea counsels caution: while new measures have opened the “front door” of approved funding a bit wider, more important is that the “back door” of shadow financing remains firmly closed. A big rebound in public works is unlikely.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Clogging China’s Cash Pipeline To Silicon Valley

    In the past years, billions of dollars of Chinese venture capital have poured into US tech firms. This is alarming to the US Defense Department, which believes these investments could lead to a flow of critical technology back to China, eroding the American advantage in fields such as artificial intelligence, robotics, and autonomous vehicles.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Foreign Tech Companies: Alive In The Bitter Sea

    Foreign technology firms face a far more challenging environment in China than they did a decade ago. Confronted by an intensified techno-nationalist agenda and strong competition from domestic players, they need to revise their strategies. Careful localization is the best option.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Belt And Road Slims Down

    China is still signing up more countries for its Belt and Road Initiative, but money for Xi Jinping’s signature foreign policy is getting tighter. Growth in China’s overseas lending has ground to a halt, and overseas construction projects are declining. In this piece, Tom explains why a slimmer Belt and Road has become an economic necessity.

    2
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Chinese Consumer In 2019

    In her annual review of the Chinese consumer, Ernan analyzes the trajectory of household spending and unearths thematic opportunities in consumer markets. After 2019’s slowdown, consumption should stabilize in 2020 as the labor market improves. Luxury goods and cosmetics are booming, but overseas tourism and traditional retail are weaker.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Seminar Series Multimedia — Fall 2019

    Partners and analysts present their core ideas for the big economic regions and global markets heading into the year-end and looking forward to 2020.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Rebalancing Won't Rescue China

    As China hunkers down for an extended trade conflict with the US, it is sending reassuring signals about its ability to withstand the pressure. Officials argue the economy has “rebalanced” away from external to domestic demand, so it is less vulnerable. In this piece, Andrew explains how this misreads the role of exports in longer-term growth.

    4
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Crackdown On Developer Financing

    China’s financial regulators are squeezing funding for property developers in order to discourage land speculation and cool down property prices. In this piece, Rosealea argues the crackdown has been fairly successful, and does not pose a big risk to construction. Slightly easier demand-side policies will help offset tough supply-side restrictions.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Dimensions Of Decoupling

    Whatever happens next in the US-China trade conflict, it’s clear that ties between the two nations have undergone a fundamental reset. Some “decoupling” will definitely occur as a result, and indeed has already begun. In this chartbook, Andrew and Lance explore how US-China decoupling could play out in flows of goods, money, people and ideas.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Beijing Toughs It Out

    After a month of further escalation in the US-China trade war, China’s strategy for the next stage of the dispute is becoming clear. Its leadership now looks committed to a strategy of toughing out trade tensions. This means the prospect of a US-China trade deal is receding, and therefore that global growth will face further headwinds.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Macro Update: The Return Of Selective Easing

    After a rocky few months of trade troubles, disappointing data and hawkish policy, China has shifted back to a more decisive focus on growth-supporting measures. This move should help support markets and the economy through end-2019. But as Andrew explains in this chartbook, the boost from this cautious “selective easing” is still limited.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Handing Off The Slowdown

    China’s data releases for October showed signs that the global downturn in electronics, and the domestic fall in car sales, are starting to fade. But the bad news is that the property and heavy industry complex is weakening. That combination means roughly stable growth for the moment, reassuring policymakers that their cautious stance works.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Financing Squeeze Spreads To Corporate Bonds

    The corporate bond market was once promoted as a better way to finance China’s private firms. Instead, as Xiaoxi explains in this piece, it has turned into another source of financial pressure. The corporate bonds of private firms are now maturing faster than they can issue new ones, creating a financing squeeze that could last through 2021.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Autos Are Getting Back On The Road

    China’s industrial slowdown is not just about exports. The deep downturn in auto sales accounts for about half of the slowdown in GDP growth since 2018, Thomas estimates. Things are now starting to look less bad, and the growth drag is heading back toward zero. But autos are still not about to deliver a big boost to growth or commodity demand.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Size Of State Subsidies

    The US government alleges that “China provides massive, market-distorting subsidies,” particularly to state firms. But just how big are China’s subsidies to state-owned enterprises, and what kind of economic distortions do they create? This in-depth report quantifies three major types of direct and indirect subsidies, and explores their effects.

    1
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The End Of China's ODI Party

    Beijing’s decision to use foreign acquisitions as a tool of state industrial policy has badly backfired. With advanced economies stiffening their resistance to Chinese investment, China’s decade-long outward direct investment spree looks spent. In this piece, Tom explains how the boom ended and where funds will flow in the future.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Renminbi, Manipulation And The Trade War

    Monday’s actions on the Chinese currency—Beijing’s decision to let the renminbi’s exchange rate weaken past CNY7.00 to the US dollar, and Washington’s decision to label China a currency manipulator—signal that the US and China are close to throwing in the towel on a trade deal. Trade war escalation should now be the base case.

    1
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Next Stage Of The Pork Crisis

    The African swine fever crisis in China is reaching a new stage as prices for pigs and pork spiral upward at an unprecedented pace. The government is responding with a combination of subsidies for pork farms, as well as rationing and price caps. But this is a short-term strategy that will not contain the ASF epidemic and could even worsen it.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Beijing's Conflicted Easing

    As prospects for a quick resolution of the US-China trade conflict fade, and the data continue to soften, expectations for Chinese growth are getting marked down. As if on cue, the government has sent signals of more decisive policy support for growth. While encouraging, this does not presage a shift in China's macro policy of "selective" easing.

    3
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Read My Lips: No Housing Stimulus

    The world’s major economies are seemingly united on the need for a fresh round of stimulus—except for China. And hopes for a more aggressive approach were dashed by the latest Politburo meeting, which declared that China would not boost the housing market to revive growth. In this piece, Andrew explains what’s behind China’s policy stance.

    0
Show me: results