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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    A-shares Beyond Wuhan Volatility

    Although the Wuhan coronavirus has the potential to whipsaw Chinese equities in the near term, it makes sense to assess the prospects for China’s A-share market this year should the current nervousness quickly abate. Thomas argues that market sentiment is likely to turn favorable provided the virus is contained given the trade war truce, easing deflationary pressure and a profit cycle upturn.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The China Inc. Annual Report 2019

    In the latest edition of his annual chartbook, Thomas outlines the fundamentals of China’s corporate sector. The latest downcycle in sales and profits was less severe than previous episodes, but private firms are still suffering from financial strains. The anemic bounce in credit growth points to little recovery in profits or capex in 2020.

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    Gavekal Research

    Lessons From Last Time Around

    Beijing shops have sold out of high-spec surgical masks, scared customers are stockpiling medicines, and financial markets are looking shaky. The parallels between the current coronavirus outbreak and the 2003 epidemic of Sars are obvious. But there are also important differences, especially in the backdrop against which today’s outbreak is occurring.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Better Lucky Than Good

    China’s government has done its part to steady the economy and markets: it has agreed to a rather one-sided trade deal with the US, and softened the tone of its financial de-risking campaign. But December’s data show that good luck has mattered more: turns in the autos and electronics cycles are what’s really behind the stabilization of growth.

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    Gavekal Research

    Our 2019 Holiday Reading List

    “So many books,” lamented the late Frank Zappa, “so little time.” For readers wondering which of the 130mn books published since the invention of the printing press they should curl up with over the coming break, hopefully Gavekal’s annual holiday reading picks may help.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Long Arm Of US Export Controls

    While investors eye the progress of US-China talks to avert tariff hikes, the US is mobilizing on another front. In this piece, Dan explains how the US is preparing for more aggressive use of export controls to disentangle the US and Chinese tech sectors. This can certainly hurt Chinese firms, but will also affect US and other tech companies.

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    Gavekal Research

    Audio & Transcript — Gavekal Research Call January 2020

    The past few weeks have seen Chinese policymakers signaling clearly that the campaign of selective easing begun last year will be carried on into 2020 even as growth continues to slow. With trade war risk lowered, and the electronics and auto sector cycles bottoming out, the outlook for equity and bond markets is fairly benign.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Mortgage Rate Reset

    China’s central bank is moving forward with its interest-rate reforms, ordering mortgages to be reset based on the new loan prime rate. Rosealea explains that this shift will make monetary policy more transparent and effective by re-linking mortgage rates to official policy rates, but it does not herald a cycle of major cuts in mortgage rates.

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    Gavekal Research

    Low-tech/high-tech?

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2003-12-01.You can download it here: 0176_ceq2003q4_sec2_technology_01mfg.pdf

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Taiwan’s Manufacturers Rethink Reliance On China

    Could Taiwan be a winner in the US-China trade war? As Dan reports in this piece, US tariffs have succeeded in getting major contract manufacturers of electronics to shift jobs out of China, some of which are going to Taiwan. But this trend is not enough to end Taiwan’s dependence on Chinese growth, or its vulnerability to Chinese competition.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Defending The Single Market

    Europe’s leaders are promising a more forceful approach to defending the bloc’s interests. But they do not fully subscribe to the view, widely held in the US, that China is a strategic rival and security threat. What they have been able to agree on, as Lance argues, is the need to protect the EU’s single market against Chinese state capitalism.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Pitfalls Of Beijing’s AI Strategy

    The Chinese government has made artificial intelligence a national development priority and is dedicating huge resources to the task. Yet, as Lance explains in this report, the effort is suffering from mismanagement, wasteful provincial competition and difficulty retaining skilled workers.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    China Economic Quarterly Q4 2003 - China tech

    China Economic Quarterly Q4 2003: China tech

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    Gavekal Research

    Let The Thousand Cuts Begin

    Was it worth the wait? Markets have been expecting the People’s Bank of China to cut policy rates ever since it introduced a new rates framework in August and promised to lower funding costs. On Tuesday, the central bank finally delivered, rolling over its one-year medium-term lending facility at 3.25%, 5bp below the previous rate of 3.3%.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    How To Get Comfortable With Chinese Equities

    The inclusion of Chinese onshore equities in global indexes has catalyzed a wave of interest from global investors. But for foreign investors to really get comfortable with Chinese stocks, Thomas argues, they need to grasp the many issues not addressed by index inclusion such as volatility, leverage, regulatory risk and corporate governance.

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    Gavekal Research

    Keeping China In Play

    Next week’s big event will be the G-20 leaders’ meeting in Osaka, where presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping will sit down to figure out whether their stalled trade negotiations can be re-started. It is quite likely that trade talks will get back on track, but quite unlikely that a deal can actually be struck before the end of the year.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Scenarios For 2020

    Beijing has been largely successful in balancing a response to China’s economic slowdown with a need to continue its financial cleanup, but how sustainable is this delicate status quo? In this report, Andrew lays out different scenarios and the likelihood of policymakers being able to maintain their “selective easing” strategy through 2020.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Why The Private Liquidity Crisis Isn't Over

    The multi-year liquidity squeeze for Chinese private-sector firms continues, despite repeated promises from policymakers to resolve the issue. In this report, Thomas explains how Beijing’s tight grip on financial risk has stymied efforts to alleviate China’s beleaguered private sector—and why this lending crunch will persist through 2020.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Bills Come Due In Tianjin

    On paper, the northern port city of Tianjin was once the richest place in China. But now its financial center lies empty, its statistics have been exposed as falsified, and the local government and firms are close to running out of cash. In this report, Ernan explains why Tianjin’s long-running problems have finally burst into the open.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Rising Risks For Chinese Firms

    The outcome of US-China trade talks is uncertain, but one thing is clear. Chinese companies, their customers and suppliers, faced increased risks of US American sanctions. Hardliners in the US national security establishment are pressing ahead with an “all-of-government” strategy to constrain China’s technological and financial clout. This will continue regardless of the outcome of trade talks.

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