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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Who Wants A New Long March?

    Since the collapse of the US-China trade talks, the public position of both sides has hardened. Top leader Xi Jinping’s call for a “new Long March” was widely taken as a sign he is ready for a protracted standoff with the US. But support for such a stance is not universal, as the surprising public comments of Huawei chairman Ren Zhengfei suggest.

    4
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    Gavekal Research

    Last Lap For China's Bond Rally

    Starting from April, Chinese government and policy bank bonds are included in the Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate bond index. But index inclusion, while an important landmark, may not be the best guide to market timing. After a bull run that has lasted since the beginning of 2018, China’s bond market rally looks to be nearing an end.

    3
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Video: What Drives Chinese Equities

    Chinese equity markets are up around 26% for the year. Yet there has been no recovery in earnings growth, and the trade war and shaky domestic economic momentum continue to loom. The reason for the market optimism is expectations of supportive government policies, whether or not those expectations are valid.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Industrial Policy That Dare Not Speak Its Name

    The Made In China 2025 initiative was omnipresent after its launch in 2015, but it has now become officially invisible, a casualty of the vocal concerns expressed by the US and others. In this piece, Lance explains how China will pursue industrial policy in the aftermath: with less transparency, but also, perhaps, with less discrimination.

    5
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Clogging China’s Cash Pipeline To Silicon Valley

    In the past years, billions of dollars of Chinese venture capital have poured into US tech firms. This is alarming to the US Defense Department, which believes these investments could lead to a flow of critical technology back to China, eroding the American advantage in fields such as artificial intelligence, robotics, and autonomous vehicles.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Navigating The Shocks To Earnings

    Chinese listed companies have lately suffered more than their fair share of shocks to earnings. In this piece, Thomas explains the financial and accounting problems that have squeezed profits in recent quarters. But he argues that, even with the trade war, 2019 is likely to be a normal profits downcycle rather than a disastrous one.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Liquidity Improves, But Not For All

    China’s policymakers are pushing banks to offer more financing to private-sector firms, trying to solve their liquidity squeeze. In this piece, Thomas inspects the data for the effects of that push, and finds that new credit is flowing mainly to the largest and smallest firms. The mass of medium-sized private firms are still in a tough spot.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Beijing's Most Effective Trade Tool

    In response to the escalation of the US-China trade war, Chinese policymakers are likely to step up their easing measures. This should help support domestic demand. But as Chen Long argues in this piece, the effect of policy easing, coupled with the impact of increased tariffs on China’s exports, will add to downward pressure on the renminbi.

    4
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    Gavekal Research

    A Huawei-Scale Problem

    The charges that US prosecutors have now filed against telecom equipment supplier Huawei are similar to those thrown at two other Chinese tech firms last year. The eventual outcome is likely to be similar: the imposition of export controls that will threaten Huawei’s survival and force it to accede to a restrictive deal with the US government.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    The Trade War Story Lines Harden

    The US-China trade war has three potential outcomes. First, we could see a step back from brinksmanship and a deal in the next few weeks. Second, the two sides could dig in for more protracted negotiations. Third, the talks could break down and the trade war become permanent. With the probability of each outcome less than 50%, the only certainty is continued uncertainty.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Enduring The Slowdown

    China’s growth momentum faded noticeably in May, and while the government rolled out new supportive measures, they are fairly modest. The data over the next couple of months could be pretty uninspiring. But as Chen Long argues in this report, policymakers still prefer to soften the slowdown rather than try to generate a big cyclical upswing.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Xi's Pivot To The Private Sector

    The improved economic outlook for China in 2019 owes a lot to an effective stimulus and progress toward a trade deal. But it has also been driven by top leader Xi Jinping’s surprising political pivot from champion of state enterprises to patron of the private sector. In this piece, Andrew examines how sincere Xi’s new stance will prove to be.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Low-tech/high-tech?

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2003-12-01.You can download it here: 0176_ceq2003q4_sec2_technology_01mfg.pdf

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The US Technology Control Toolbox

    The US and China appear to be moving toward a trade deal that will at least halt further hikes in tariffs. But as Dan shows in this piece, the US still wants to constrain China’s technological rise, and has many tools it can use. US-China technology exchanges are becoming politically and legally fraught, causing collateral damage on both sides.

    6
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Tourism Falls Victim To The Trade War

    The boom in China’s outbound tourism could go down as another casualty of the trade war. As Ernan explains in this piece, the combination of a weakening currency and rising political tensions is becoming a major drag on international travel by Chinese—just as the structural factors driving outbound tourism growth are shifting into a lower gear.

    2
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Video: China In 2019

    Washington and Beijing will likely find some kind of accommodation on trade and China’s economy will suffer a tough first quarter that sees the authorities adopt a range of counter-cyclical measures. In this video interview, Arthur outlines our key China views for 2019 and offers investment recommendations for the renminbi, bonds and the Chinese equity market.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    The Least Ugly Duckling

    In a year marked by unexpected US dollar strength, the renminbi is one of the few major currencies to be up against the dollar. The reason is simple enough: the resumption of trade talks between the US and China. Yet although a trade pact is now substantially priced in, there are reasons to believe the renminbi has further upside potential.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Stabilization Confirmed

    The raft of economic data released by China on Wednesday morning suggests the world’s second largest economy is proving more responsive than expected to the authorities’ supportive policy measures. The question is no longer whether the government will hit its 2019 growth target, but whether the apparent success will make Beijing halt its easing.

    12
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    An Epidemic That Can No Longer Be Denied

    The world’s deadliest pig disease is now established in the world’s largest pork market. The spread of African swine fever in China has been more severe than the government has admitted, and as a result pork prices are spiking and imports are surging. But as Ernan argues in this report, the impact of this epidemic is still only in its early stages.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    The World's Biggest Bull Loses Steam

    China’s equity bull market has lost steam in the last 10 days after the Politburo adopted a less supportive tone following stronger than expected economic data in March. Even before the announcement, market ebullience had moderated. This is positive for China's stock market development, since it reduces the risk of an over-muscular regulatory reaction.

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