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E.g., 27-09-2020
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Job Market Shock Continues

    The lockdown to control Covid-19 has already cost millions of China’s migrant workers a month or more of lost wages. But the shock to employment is not over: many service businesses are not back to normal, and manufacturers face plunging export orders. In this piece, Ernan analyzes the multiple pressures on China’s job market in 2020.

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: The Battle For Chinese Tech

    China imports more semiconductors than it does crude oil, highlighting its dependence on foreign technology and know-how. The US recognizes this weakness and is intent on squeezing China’s tech sector before it is able to produce the most advanced chips at home and in scale. For this reason, tech sits at the heart of the US-China tensions.

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    Gavekal Research

    Behind The A-Share Rebound

    Although China is ground zero for the coronavirus outbreak, its onshore stock markets are the world’s best performing major markets so far this year by a considerable margin. For the most part this is due to mood-enhancing domestic policy support, which is likely to continue to counteract the catastrophic near term earnings outlook.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    A Month Of Lost Wages

    As the rise in new cases of Covid-19 in China has slowed, provinces are easing their drastic restrictions on movement and businesses are reopening. But the extended shutdown has already imposed great costs on migrant workers. Ernan estimates lost wages will be 3-4% of annual household income, though with a smaller impact on total consumption.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Coming Collapse Of Exports

    As other economies shut down to contain their outbreaks, China’s hopes of a V-shaped growth rebound are evaporating. Thomas explains how the ensuing collapse in Chinese exports could result in a 4-8pp drop in GDP growth for Q2, offsetting any domestic recovery and pressuring policymakers to ramp up economic assistance.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Security Rules Are Decoupling Technology

    Presidents Trump and Xi may be edging toward a trade deal, but trust between the US and China has not been restored. As Lance explains in this piece, China’s bureaucracy is ramping up its already-restrictive security rules on technology hardware, software and data flows. This push will ensure some decoupling of China’s tech sector from the US.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Rural Banks On The Brink

    The economic stress of the Covid-19 outbreak is all but certain to cause a rise in nonperforming loans. Even before the outbreak, China’s rural commercial banks—its smallest and most troubled lenders—were already short of capital and performing poorly. As Xiaoxi shows in this piece, another jump in bad loans will push more of them into distress.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Defense Drives US Decoupling

    Although US President Donald Trump has called a truce in his trade war with China, the strategic tensions in the US-China relationship still remain. Therefore, as Lance explains in this piece, the US defense sector is already taking concrete steps to reduce its reliance on China for some products with direct military applications.

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    Gavekal Research

    Far From Priced In

    Asian markets switched to risk-off mode Monday as investors reacted to further coronavirus news outside of China. Yet in onshore markets, investors are optimistic that the economy will quickly normalize as the spread of the virus comes under control, and that the central bank will provide policy easing. Neither belief looks well-founded at the moment.

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    Gavekal Research

    First Blood In The Long Tech War

    Washington has opened a new front in the US-China economic cold war by slapping controls on exports of all “commodities, software and technology” to Chinese chipmaker Fujian Jinhua Integrated Circuit. The breath of the national security justification cited for this action escalates the US-China confrontation over technology to a new level.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Local Governments Will Lead On Property

    Even as China’s property market has experienced an unprecedented decline, central government policymakers have kept a tight leash on official support. However, given growing signs of a lasting disruption to the sector, Rosealea believes that Beijing will tolerate more ambitious municipal efforts to keep local markets afloat.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Terrible But True

    Given the extent of China’s coronavirus lockdown, it’s not surprising to see double-digit declines in economic indicators. The real surprise is that the statistics bureau did not fudge the data, as analysts expected it would, and printed numbers bad enough to be plausible. This suggests authorities will be pragmatic about the growth impact for 2020.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Despite Shortages, Inflation Will Cool

    China’s consumer-price inflation is now around an eight-year high, driven primarily by continued pork shortages due to the African swine fever and exacerbated by the Covid-19 lockdown measures. That said, headline inflation figures are ticking down, a trend Ernan expects to continue in the coming months with an assist from lower oil prices.

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    Gavekal Research

    Strategy Monthly: China's Balancing Act Gets Easier

    In 2019, investors were cowed by the US-China trade war and Chinese policymakers’ efforts to balance growth and financial stability. This year, these factors will weigh less heavily: the US and China are set to ink a trade deal, while China is shifting more toward growth-supporting policies. Such a combination is mildly bullish for both Chinese bonds and equities.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Limited Help For Struggling SMEs

    Chinese policymakers have announced a wide range of monetary and fiscal measures intended to help the smaller firms hit hardest by the Covid-19 outbreak. The helpfulness of these measures will likely only be marginal; however, Thomas, Xiaoxi and Wei are cautiously optimistic that most SMEs can still weather the ongoing crisis.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Getting Serious About Biosecurity

    China’s government is rethinking its approach to biosecurity in order to reduce the odds of future outbreaks of infectious disease. In this piece, Lance explains what treating biosecurity as a part of national security will mean for regulation, public health and the biotechnology sector.

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    Gavekal Research

    China-Bashing In A Political Season

    Signs are growing that the US and China will have a mini-deal on trade ready by the time Trump and Xi meet at the mid-November APEC summit. The key questions are whether opposition from US hardliners could derail the deal at the last moment, and whether the campaign to “decouple” the two economies will be knocked back if there is a deal.

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    Gavekal Research

    What The Trade Deal Won't Change

    President Trump has confirmed he will sign his trade deal with China on January 15, and the PBOC has reinforced its tilt to more dovish policies. This combination of events means the macro factors that drove December’s rally—a receding trade war and a global easing of monetary policy—are still in place for January, if increasingly priced in.

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    Gavekal Research

    Audio & Transcript — Gavekal Research Call March 2020

    In Thursday’s conference call, Louis-Vincent Gave, Andrew Batson and Cedric Gemehl discussed the policy and market reactions to the Covid-19 outbreak.

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    Gavekal Research

    The Trade War’s Uneasy Truce

    The “phase one” US-China trade deal announced last week still has some hoops to pass through before it becomes real: completion of a bilingual legal text and formal signing in January. Still, both sides have incentives to avoid the economic damage from further tariff escalation, so the deal will almost surely come into force. The agreement falls far short of achieving the US goal of forcing China to change its state-led economic system; instead...

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