E.g., 25-09-2020
E.g., 25-09-2020
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Services Recovery Gets Back On Track

    China’s government is substantially relaxing restrictions on travel, retail and other consumer services as its Covid-19 outbreak gets further under control. In this Quick Take, Rosealea outlines the near-term outlook for a recovery in consumer services, as well as the factors still weighing on that recovery.

    2
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Webinar: China's Recovery From Covid-19 Lockdown

    At Wednesday's webinar, Andrew Batson, Ernan Cui, Thomas Gatley and Wei He discussed how China is recovering from the lockdown imposed to deal with the Covid-19 outbreak, and the outlook for the economy.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Return Of Special Treasury Bonds

    China’s government will once again issue “special treasury bonds” this year, a tool last used in 2007, but has not yet revealed how the funds will be used. In this piece, Wei surveys the options on the table and argues these special bonds are more likely to fund indirect support to the economy rather than to ramp up direct fiscal stimulus.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Choosing Currency Stability

    In the global crises of 1998 and 2008, China chose currency stability over competitive devaluation—and in the coronavirus crisis of 2020 it is making the same choice. In this piece, Wei argues that preventing capital outflows outweighs the PBOC’s other priorities for now, even if this means having to accept a less competitive currency.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Earnings Crunch Arrives

    Earnings season for China’s listed companies has finished, and the numbers are not pretty: the aggregate net profits of non-financial firms fell by 51% YoY in Q1. In this Quick Take, Thomas assesses the damage to earnings and outlines the consequences for the corporate sector.

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    Chinese Equities As A Safe Haven

    Chinese equities are likely to outperform in the short term as the global outbreak worsens and China adds more detail to its latest set of stimulus measures announced on Friday. However, once the outbreak shows signs of peaking in the US and Europe, Thomas argues that China is expected to return to its status as a relative underperformer.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    A New Stage In The Monetary Cycle

    While the People’s Bank of China remains more conservative than other global central banks, it is now clearly signaling to the market that liquidity will remain loose for the foreseeable future. This means low interest rates and, according to Wei, favorable conditions for a Chinese government bond rally.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: Looking Through The Lockdowns

    Andrew and Rosealea discussed China’s slow return to normal, the state of the property and construction sector, and warned of the global demand shock China will face due to Covid-19. Will outlined his view on asset allocation in light of the shock to the US economy and the asset price adjustments that have taken place so far.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Why China Can Succeed In Tech

    Technology is at the heart of the US-China trade conflict. The US fears that China will challenge its technological leadership, and those fears are not without foundation. In this piece, Dan argues that China is in fact likely to succeed in many of its technological goals—but because of successful companies rather than big government plans.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Video: Containing China's Tech Ambitions

    More constructive rhetoric suggests the US and China may be about to strike a truce on tariffs and market access. However, that does not mean they are about to bury the hatchet. Powerful groups in Washington want to contain China’s rise as a technological power, and the US has many tools at its disposal even if it drops tariffs.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Getting Out Of Lockdown

    China is starting to get out of its strict Covid-19 lockdown, but its economy will not get fully back to normal until the outbreaks in other countries also get under control. In this piece, Andrew and the team dig into the data to piece together the economy’s trajectory for March and April: a narrowing decline rather than a fast rebound.

    5
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Steel Prices Signal Stability

    Steel prices have stabilized after falling around 10% from their peak, reflecting a relatively rapid recovery in construction activity from the Covid-19 lockdowns. In this piece, Rosealea argues that the steel market is signaling a stabilization in China’s domestic demand from improving housing sales and a boost to infrastructure spending.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Multinationals Take The Long View

    The coronavirus outbreak has undoubtedly had a significant impact on multinational companies’ operations in China. Nonetheless, drawing from a dozen interviews with China-based executives, Lance argues there is little evidence the outbreak will cause firms to rethink their long-term China strategies.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Macro Update: Climbing Out Of The Hole

    After lockdowns produced a historic contraction in activity in February, China’s economy began climbing out of its deep growth hole in March. In this chartbook, the Dragonomics team outlines the shape of the recovery, explains which sectors are leading and which are lagging, and breaks down the policy response and implications for markets.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Huawei Comes Out Ahead, For Now

    American attempts to kneecap Huawei have run into several setbacks. Internationally, Europe is pushing back on demands to exclude Huawei from 5G networks; domestically, further sanctions have been stymied by bureaucratic infighting. Dan reports that the war is hardly over, and we are likely to see broader rules limiting Chinese access to US tech.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Great Fiscal Role Reversal

    In the global financial crisis of 2008, China defied economic orthodoxy with its huge debt-financed stimulus. In the coronavirus crisis of 2020, by contrast, it is the US, UK and other Western countries that are throwing the fiscal rulebook out the window. In this piece, Andrew explains what’s behind this surprising role reversal.

    7
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    East Africa’s Chinese Gamble

    China’s deep economic roots in Africa provoke alarm in the US and concern among debtor nations, especially as some costly infrastructure projects prove financially unviable. But our latest in-depth DeepChina report explains why China’s presence is generally welcome in East Africa, even as the era of huge loans and megaprojects draws to an end.

    7
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    From The Supply Side To The Demand Side

    As China gets back to work, the biggest problem facing the economy is no longer restrictions imposed on the supply side, but the near-certain prospect of a major shock in global demand. Andrew argues that this shift will cajole Chinese policymakers, who have so far kept a conservative approach, into stepping up their growth support measures.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Video: On Target In China?

    In 2015 the Chinese government set out its 13th five-year plan, with economic and social targets that it aimed to hit by the end of 2020. The five-year plans are important because the government derives legitimacy from improving people’s livelihoods. The Dragonomics team has examined seven such targets and their impact on the economy.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Deposit Rates Are Back On The Agenda

    The People’s Bank of China has failed to join other central banks in the recent wave of rate cuts. But with the coronavirus now threatening a substantial hit to global demand, the PBOC is going to need to do more. In this piece, Wei argues that a cut in the benchmark deposit rate—a tool that has not been used in four years—is on the way soon.

    0
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