E.g., 19-02-2020
E.g., 19-02-2020
We have found 308 results.
View by: Grid List
Sort by: Relevancy Date
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Europe's Political Paralysis

    With the Spanish general election unlikely to produce a proper government, the country looks increasingly ungovernable. For an economy that weathered the financial crisis intact but has chronic productivity problems, this is a worry. However, the result of Europe’s fragmenting political landscape is long-term policy stasis rather than a near-term collapse of the single currency.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Brexit And The UK Trade Deficit

    The UK has long run a large goods trade deficit with its main trading partners. However, Charles argues that this ”deficit” should really be seen as two different deficits; one is with the world excluding the eurozone, and the other with the eurozone itself. Splitting them makes sense as they have different origins and react to different forces.

    1
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Behind The Risk-On

    In recent months, economic data has improved or stabilized, and political risks have receded. But now that equity prices on Wall Street have hit new records and US treasury yields have rebounded from the bottom of their post-2011 trading range, it is worth asking if the move to risk-on conditions is a temporary mood swing, or one supported by economic fundamentals.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Strategy Monthly: Towards A Dollar Decline

    The last five years have been an era of US dollar strength. That era may now be coming to an end. After the US Federal Reserve halted its balance sheet contraction and last month resumed buying T-bills at a rate of US$60bn a month, the Fed is now printing money faster than the other central banks. As a result, relative liquidity growth now favors US dollar weakness.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    To Impeachment And Beyond

    What will determine whether the global economic expansion and equity bull market will continue in the year ahead? The political upheavals which dominated in the past three years, such as the trade war, Iran oil sanctions and Brexit, have seemed to subside or become priced in. But new political noise is being generated by the threatened impeachment of President Donald Trump.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Easy Money And Robust Growth

    No wonder the S&P 500 closed at a new high yesterday. On the same day the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25bp, US GDP growth for 3Q19 came in at a robust 1.9%. For its part, the Fed gave no indication of paring down its new asset purchase program (quantitative easing in all but name). This is bullish for risk assets and bearish for the US dollar.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    US Dollar Under Fire

    The richly-valued US dollar is finally starting to look vulnerable. While still in its post-2015 trading range, the DXY index has given up -1.5% in the last 11 trading days; broader trade-weighted measures have also swooned. A range of factors are now weighing on the US currency and if they persist the unit could see a pronounced decline in the coming months.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Where Will Growth Come From Now?

    In the spring of 2003 Gavekal posited that China would become the new locomotive of world growth. But now, the days when China could be counted upon to gear up its balance sheet and pull global growth up by its bootstraps are coming to an end. And as global activity slows investors are asking “where will the growth come from"?

    2
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Knowledge Revolution And Its Consequences

    From Hong Kong to Santiago to Paris, this year has seen protestors rage against out-of-touch political elites. But does anything more than anger connect these apparently disparate movements? Louis argues that the upheavals posed by the ongoing “knowledge revolution” may explain the phenomenon, and offers investment advice on how to survive revolutionary times.

    15
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Brexit Impasse

    Political commentators and European leaders are bewailing Britain’s descent into ungovernability after the UK parliament again rejected the new and supposedly improved Brexit deal. But markets reacted calmly. In fact, for investors, the seemingly chaotic Brexit saga is unfolding roughly along the bullish lines suggested here since early January.

    12
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    A Canadian Election

    Today sees Canadians go to the polls to choose a new government. The ruling Liberal Party faces an electoral squeeze, but it is not clear that the outcome of the election will unduly impact Canada’s economic prospects. Louis runs through the outlook for an economy that most people he speaks to are down on.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Audio & Transcript — Gavekal Research Call September 2019

    In yesterday’s conference call, Anatole Kaletsky, Will Denyer and Louis-Vincent Gave outlined reasons for recent dramatic moves in bond markets and made arguments for what comes next. Anatole also addressed Brexit developments and Louis discussed the situation in Hong Kong.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    And The Brexit Winner Is...

    With the Brexit deadline in the rear view mirror, Britain's leave voters have are left with the impression that they have been taken for a ride by the UK’s political class, and in particular by their representatives in parliament. So who is the real sovereign power in the UK? The people or parliament? Charles sees three possible outcomes.

    5
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The German Spillover

    Perhaps the most remarkable thing about this year’s slump in manufacturing is how few negative spillover effects it has had on demand in the broader economy—until now. Services PMIs for both the eurozone as a whole and for Germany took a sharp turn south in September. In Germany, the deterioration is making a technical recession all but inevitable.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Musings On Brexit

    With the UK’s elite intent on frustrating the democratically-expressed will of the British people to quit the EU, the lesson for the rest of the continent is that there can be no legal or peaceful exit from the technocratic super-state. As Charles argues here, this increases the probability of disorderly exits in the future, and therefore greatly heightens European political risk.

    8
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Age Of Range Trading

    It is a Gavekal adage that 10-year treasury yields, crude oil prices and the US dollar exchange rate are “master prices” that have an outsized impact on economic activity and financial markets. Yet as Louis notes, in recent years, these three prices have shown little by way of a structural trend. In this piece, he seeks to understand the meaning from this range-trading phenomenon.

    6
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    ‘Do Or Die’ Boris Is Bullish For Sterling

    Considering the political chaos that will descend this week on the UK, it may seem surprising that the pound has bounced back to its trade-weighted level just before Boris Johnson became prime minister. Or maybe it is not too surprising—if a “No Deal Brexit” is the only possible scenario that would justify a further weakening of sterling and other UK assets.

    1
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Upside For Europe

    The euro is trading at its weakest against the US dollar since May 2017. Whether it falls further from here or finds support around current levels to establish a base for a rebound will depend mainly on whether Europe’s economic performance continues to deteriorate, or whether upside surprises are likely in the months ahead.

    1
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Greater Good Versus Individual Liberty

    Yesterday Hong Kong's streets were again the stage for violent clashes between protesters and police. At the heart of the conflict is a showdown between the shared identity in Hong Kong shaped by the common law system inherited by the British and the common narrative in China emphasizing the "greater good" over individual liberties.

    8
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Legal Is Not The Same As Legitimate

    Democracy is in trouble. Everywhere the cause is the same: a massive conflict between legitimacy and legality. For the last 100 years or more, the split between left and right left anchored the legitimacy of any democratic government. Unfortunately, over the last couple of decades or so, the left has betrayed the people, while the right has betrayed the nation.

    10
Show me: results