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E.g., 21-08-2019
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    Gavekal Research

    The End Of The Smartphone S-Curve

    Smartphones are a maturing industry. Sales in China, the US, Europe and Japan are declining, and demand growth in India and Africa is not fast enough to drive a new surge in global sales. The industry is hoping that 5G and foldable phones will trigger a fresh upgrade cycle. But neither will drive a significant increase of sales in the near term.

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    Hong Kong Seminar — April 2019

    Louis Gave examined the reasons for equity markets' good performance amid a global trade slowdown; Thomas Gatley assessed the state of the Chinese economy and whether the current Chinese equity bull market still has legs; Udith Sikand reckoned it is time to be positive on emerging markets, especially EM Asia.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Audio & Transcript — Gavekal Research Call April 2019

    In yesterday’s Gavekal Research Conference Call, Will Denyer and Udith Sikand addressed the changing US dollar liquidity environment, and its impact on markets.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Europe's Export Problem

    Europe is the world’s most export-dependent big economic region. In such a precious position, the effect of external weakness can be debilitating, as shown by the eurozone manufacturing PMI having just fallen to its lowest in nearly six years at 47.5. The question is whether any respite can be found in overseas markets.

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    Gavekal Research

    London Seminar — March 2019

    Cedric Gemehl examined the possibility of a European rebound; Charles Gave argued the world is splitting into three distinct monetary zones; Tom Miller presented on the state of the US-China trade talks and the health of the Chinese economy; Anatole Kaletsky examined the risks to the bull market, and arrived at a bullish conclusion.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Good News For Goldilocks

    Last Thursday, with the price of oil approaching a four-and-a-half month high, Donald Trump took to Twitter. “Price of Oil getting too high.” Trump’s tweet had little effect, with Brent crude hitting US$69/bbl on Monday. Prices are likely to continue to push higher over the coming months towards 2018's highs—a troubling prospect.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    A Tactical Opportunity In Turkey

    Turkey has long been a market to steer well clear of, with investment opportunities poisoned by toxic politics and an ever-depreciating local currency. However, with the US Federal Reserve adopting a more dovish stance and following the weekend’s municipal elections, Turkish lira assets may now offer an attractive tactical opportunity.

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    Gavekal Research

    Strategy Monthly: A New Liquidity Environment

    The prospect of easier liquidity conditions helped make 1Q19 one of the best ever quarters for US equities. Confirmation of the Federal Reserve’s newly dovish policy stance means that US equities should continue to do well through 2019. Other big winners in this environment may be equities in northeast Asian emerging markets that do not rely on Chinese commodity demand.

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    Gavekal Research

    Among EMs, Favor North Asia

    With their high beta to global growth, emerging markets seldom outperform when investors begin to get nervous about the health of the global economy. So it is no surprise that the risk-off move of the last week has seen the Brazilian real and Argentinian peso each sold off by more than -5% against the US dollar, while the Turkish lira has been propped up only by a regulatory squeeze on liquidity. But the jitters have not affected all emerging...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The End Of China's ODI Party

    Beijing’s decision to use foreign acquisitions as a tool of state industrial policy has badly backfired. With advanced economies stiffening their resistance to Chinese investment, China’s decade-long outward direct investment spree looks spent. In this piece, Tom explains how the boom ended and where funds will flow in the future.

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    Gavekal Research

    The Central Banker Who Cried Wolf

    In January, the BoJ governor promised more monetary easing if that was what it took for inflation to reach 2%. Investors increasingly doubt the fortitude of Japan’s financial sector as it endures the pain inflicted by the world’s easiest central bank. If that suspicion grows, the variable of adjustment may be a rising yen, which would be a big headache for the BoJ.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Towards A New Triple Merit Scenario

    Emerging market equities have benefited handsomely from the global risk-on move so far this year. With the prospect of a US-China tariff truce and the likelihood that China’s growth rate will stabilize in the coming months, EM may be on the cusp of a new “triple merit scenario” that could extend the equity rally through the rest of 2019.

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    Gavekal Research

    Crisis And Opportunity In Kashmir

    India and Pakistan engaged in air-to-air combat yesterday, raising the prospect of war between the two nuclear powers. Markets fell only marginally but are vulnerable if the conflict escalates, which for the moment looks unlikely. If Modi keeps his nerve, the crisis could put the BJP on a sure path to victory in May’s general election, heralding a rally in Indian asset prices.

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    Gavekal Research

    What To Expect From Trump-Kim II

    The the eight months since Trump and Kim's historic handshake in Singapore has seen no progress on North Korea’s denuclearization, with the two sides still leagues apart. Although their second meeting this week will do nothing to bridge the gap, Trump’s determination to be seen as a peacemaker will further reduce tensions in North East Asia.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Time To Underweight Thailand

    In the two weeks since the announcement that a movie star princess would stand for prime minister in Thailand's March election—though her candidacy was swiftly shot down by the palace—investors have largely shrugged off fears of renewed upheavals. However, this is not just Thai politics as usual. It reopens old wounds and throws current alignments into doubt.

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    Gavekal Research

    India Macro Update: Pre-Election Jitters

    In India, all eyes are focused on May’s general election. In the lead-up, the government has turned on the spending spigots and the central bank has obliged with a recent surprise interest rate cut. However, in this quarterly update Udith and Tom argue that such measures may not be enough to restart the stalled capital spending cycle.

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    Gavekal Research

    Three Odd Things

    Reserves held by foreign central banks at the Fed are shrinking, which implies there aren’t enough US dollars in the system. This would make sense: the Fed has been draining excess US dollars for the past couple of years. So with shrinking central bank reserves and a shrinking US monetary base, the US dollar should be going up, and most risk assets should be hurting. Oddly, this isn’t happening.

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    Gavekal Research

    The Biggest Investment Story Of 2019

    Now that stock markets around the world have recovered from the year-end panic of December 2018, it is worth returning to the question I posed here on the first trading day of 2019: was the disappointing performance of equities and other risk assets in 2018 the prelude to a deep and protracted bear market, or a contrarian opportunity to “buy the dip”?

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    Gavekal Research

    EM Balance Sheet Vs Income Statement

    Emerging market investors face a dilemma in 2019. Softer relative growth prospects in the US as the initial effects of 2018’s tax cuts wear off, coupled with the easing of the US dollar liquidity squeeze implied by a more dovish Federal Reserve and softer oil price, favor emerging market assets. The question is: how best to implement this view?

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    The Global Car Industry Catches Chinese Flu

    If the auto industry is a bellwether of global economic health, then much of the world is looking sick. The second half of 2018 was painful for carmakers in all the major auto markets, and 2019 is shaping up to be as bad. Is this just a passing malady that carmakers will soon shrug off, or a chronic condition they will have to manage for years to come?

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