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    Gavekal Research

    Sharing the Wealth in Hong Kong and Singapore

    If it is any consolation to politicians from the deficit-ridden West, it turns out that having money in the coffers is not much of a political perk either. Just ask Hong Kong’s Financial Secretary John Tsang, who saw his approval rating plunge by -15 percentage points, to 36%, after announcing a surplus-richened budget last Wednesday. Citizens are angry because Hong Kong has a US$9bn annual budget surplus (4.1% of GDP), bringing its fiscal...

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    Gavekal Research

    India’s Surprisingly Tough Budget

    Analysts may have been highly skeptical of India’s budget proposal released yesterday, but markets cheered. Admittedly, this sigh of relief was partly over a surprise on the tax front—overall taxes were trimmed, and an expected increase in excise taxes did not materialize. But in light of the political pressures facing the Singh-led coalition—which is losing popularity amid corruption scandals and soaring inflation—this budget sends a reasonably...

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    Gavekal Research

    Chinese Growth & Thai Exports

    The Thai export numbers were a good reflection of the effects of Chinese economic growth on Thai trade data. China last year became Thailand's top export destination, replacing the United States, as it imported 11% of all Thai exports. The value of Thai exports to China rose to a record-breaking US$2.09 billion in December 2010, while the figure for the whole year rose to $21.5 billion However, increasing moves in Beijing to cool the...

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    Gavekal Research

    GaveKal Daily - The Middle Eastern Turmoil from an Asian Perspective

    The news from Libya is increasingly tragic, with reports of warplanes being used against civilians as the violence and bloodshed escalates. A number of recent defections (from ambassadors, air force pilots who refused to participate in attacks on civilians) point to the possibility of regime change, but no one knows how the situation will play out.

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    Gavekal Research

    Asia's Ongoing Budget Season

    It is budget season in Asia at the moment—and looks noticeably different than the OECD’s. Singapore on Friday announced a highly populist package that includes almost US$10bn in benefits to households and businesses, in the form of rebates, tax cuts, top-ups and hand-outs, and planned infrastructure spending. On the back of last year’s high economic growth which fed into the government’s coffers, Singapore is essentially re-distributing some of...

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    Gavekal Research

    A Political Breakthrough in Thailand

    If it weren’t for its messy politics, Thailand might be considered one of the best emerging markets stories out there: growth is robust, inflation is reasonably tame compared to its EM peers, and the country is in a good position to gain from the rebound in global trade. Unfortunately, the country’s assets carry (very justifiably) a pretty heavy risk premium because of perennial political instability. In that context, the recent political...

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    Gavekal Research

    GaveKal Daily - The Tighter Liquidity Environment Reveals the Ugly Ducklings

    Of the many insightful sayings from Warren Buffett, the best one has to be his analogy of a tighter liquidity environment with low tide at the beach. This analogy is once again being proven right, this time around in Asia: as the easy money tide withdraws, we are finding out who has been “swimming naked”. Indeed, what started before Christmas with a squeeze on Indian micro-finance providers has now evolved into discoveries or rumors of ‘...

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    Gavekal Research

    GaveKal Daily - Strong News and Stronger Markets

    With snow hitting the Super Bowl in Dallas, there is little doubt that we are in the midst of a severe winter. And of course, in winter, bears hibernate. Which is just as well, for bears have little to munch on right now: economic activity is bouncing back strongly, jobs are being created (albeit at a slow pace), global trade is soaring, the great majority of companies are reporting better than expected sales, and US profit margins are making...

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    Gavekal Research

    Taiwan's Benign Inflation?

    Despite the pervasive threat of inflation throughout Asia, headline inflation has been comparatively mild in Taiwan, with the lowest CPI in the region (ex Japan of course). Taiwan CPI was up +1.3% YoY in December, down from 1.5% YoY in November. How can we explain Taiwan’s comparatively mild inflation?

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    Gavekal Research

    Korea's Inflation Dispersion

    The upcoming Lunar New Year celebration is one of the biggest holidays for Koreans and is usually characterized by massive shopping sprees for food and gifts for traditional family gatherings. But this year may be different since soaring food prices and other inflationary pressures are forcing many Korean households to tighten their spending.

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    Gavekal Research

    Short Australia to Hedge Chinese Risks

    As everyone knows, Australia has ridden the Chinese-driven commodity boom of the past decade. But the flip-side is that the Australian economy is now more dependent on China than ever, as was amply demonstrated in 2007/08. Chinese equities peaked in November 2007, and Australian equities followed them south, although not to the same savage extent. Then commodities peaked in July 2008, causing a second, larger equity sell-off. The Aussie Dollar...

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    Gavekal Research

    GaveKal Daily - The Reflation Play is Not Back On

    The Fed confirmed a dovish stance yesterday, with no dissenters—the one outlier from last year (Hoenig) has been rotated out off the voting panel as scheduled, and the new members backed the status quo behind QE2. Given the recent statements of Mr. Plosser and Mr. Fisher, this was perhaps somewhat surprising. Some of our readers were quick to ask—does this mean the “reflation trade” back on? Should we expect a weaker US$, stronger commodities...

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    Gavekal Research

    Is Japan’s Outperformance Sustainable?

    Since making a low for 2010 on November 2nd, the Japanese equity market has been one of the best performing markets in the world, rising some +16.75% up to January 13th. Now interestingly, this strength has occurred:

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    Gavekal Research

    Mahabharata In Polyester (Hamish McDonald)

    Mahabharata in Polyester by journalist Hamish McDonald is excellent reading for anyone who wants to understand India Inc—the intricate ways in which India’s corporate and political worlds are intertwined. The book is a follow-up to the author’s previous work, The Polyester Prince, and is a riveting analysis of the split-up of India’s largest conglomerate, Reliance, following the death of Dhirubhai Ambani in 2002, and the ensuing feud between his...

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    Gavekal Research

    The Cost of Onions, and Money, in India

    India is obviously not sitting pretty at the moment. Like all emerging markets, its CPI and WPI are very sensitive to rising energy and food prices, as reflected in the political fallout over soaring onion prices, which has led to raids on “hoarders,” strikes by onion traders and opportunistic sit-ins staged by the opposition BJP (which protested wearing onion garlands—see picture). And unlike some emerging markets, India’s pain is not offset by...

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    Gavekal Research

    Bank Indonesia Versus the World

    Investors have not cheered Bank Indonesia’s (BI) decision last week to maintain rates at 6.5%, unchanged since 2009. Fears of inflation have clouded the outlook for all emerging markets, and front page news that Indonesians—who spend 50% of their income on food & transport—are being urged to grow chilies at home have stoked fears that the BI is behind the curve. Even the IMF felt compelled to come out urging the BI to raise. Consequently,...

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    Gavekal Research

    GaveKal Daily - China Selling JGBs

    A legendary macro investor once told us: 'you have not been a macro trader until you have lost money shorting JGBs'. Indeed, with its low yields, its terrible demographics and deteriorating fiscal position, shorting Japanese bonds has for years appeared to be the best 'low risk' trade out there. An underlying reality which probably explains why 94% of outstanding JGBs are held by the Japanese themselves: given the...

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    Gavekal Research

    GaveKal Daily - What Hedges Against the Consensus Trade?

    Even the most ardent bears seem to be throwing in the towel and acknowledging the strong momentum in overall US growth. Simply put, the risk of a double dip recession has now vanished. And aside from very real fears on Europe (spreads on the weaker EMU sovereigns continue to make new highs every day), most investors we talk to seem content running higher risk in their portfolios. But with almost everyone expecting positive returns on equity...

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    Gavekal Research

    An Easy Fed and a Strong Dollar

    Whatever central bankers may think about the rights and wrongs of Charles’s arguments about the natural rate of interest (and many official economists, especially in Europe and Japan, certainly share Charles’s concerns), the reality is that the Fed is not going to start raising interest rates in the first half of 2011. This can be almost guaranteed following last week’s disappointing non-farm payroll figures. Such is the political importance of...

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    Gavekal Research

    GaveKal Daily - The Supply Shock Asia Did Not Need

    With an area the size of France and Germany combined currently under water, one might think that the devastating floods wreaking havoc on Queensland would be generating a little more press than they have thus far. And that's before one even gets into the troublesome economic consequences of the record Australian rains; with a sizable proportion of Australia's coking coal export capacity now compromised, along with the region's...

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    Gavekal Research

    GaveKal Daily - Positive Developments in South Korea

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-12-21.You can download it here: GKDailyReport101221.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    GaveKal Daily - Japanese Equities May Surprise on the Upside

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-12-17.You can download it here: GKDailyReport101217.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    Asia: Betting on Ever-Wider Growth Differentials

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-12-13.You can download it here: GKFiveCorners101213.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    GaveKal Daily - The Meaning of the Rise in Bond Yields

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-12-09.You can download it here: GKDailyReport101209.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    GaveKal Daily - India's Monsoon Season of Scandals

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-12-07.You can download it here: GKDailyReport1012071.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    The 'Korea Discount' is Back

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-12-07.You can download it here: GKFiveCorners1012073.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    The New Bridge on the River Kwai

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-12-07.You can download it here: GKFiveCorners1012074.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    QSCB - 1Q11 - Where Will Earnings Growth Be Found?

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-12-01.You can download it here: GKQuarterlyStrategy101201.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    GaveKal Daily - The Intriguing Inability of Safe-Haven Bonds to Rally on EMU Crisis

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-11-30.You can download it here: GKDailyReport101130.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    GaveKal Daily - More Trouble Brewing on the Korean Peninsula

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-11-26.You can download it here: GKDailyReport1011262.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    GaveKal Daily - Don't Miss the Global Growth Story

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-11-25.You can download it here: GKDailyReport1011252.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    ASEAN, What Inflation?

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-11-22.You can download it here: GKFiveCorners1011223.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    Who Has the Upper Hand in South Korea?

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-11-22.You can download it here: GKFiveCorners1011227.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    GaveKal Daily - Korea Closes the Barn Door

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-11-19.You can download it here: GKDailyReport1011191.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    GaveKal Daily - The Political Winds Have Shifted; So Should Portfolios

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-11-16.You can download it here: GKDailyReport1011162.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    GaveKal Daily - Inflation and Reform

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-11-12.You can download it here: GKDailyReport1011121.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    GaveKal Daily - A Noteworthy Move in the Topix

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-11-11.You can download it here: GKDailyReport101111.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    Rupee Risks and Rewards

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-11-09.You can download it here: GKFiveCorners1011091.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    The Flipside of Korea's DRAM Dominance

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-11-09.You can download it here: GKFiveCorners1011092.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    The Political Courting of SE Asia

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-11-09.You can download it here: GKFiveCorners1011094.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    GaveKal Daily - Wrong-Footed in Japan, Again

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-10-29.You can download it here: GKDailyReport101029.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    Japan Gives Korea an Opening

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-10-25.You can download it here: GKFiveCorners1010253.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    Japanese Liquidity Will Continue to Leak Abroad

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-10-25.You can download it here: GKFiveCorners1010254.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    Mahathir...Back With a Vengeance?

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-10-25.You can download it here: GKFiveCorners1010255.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    Thailand's Condo Bubble--Not

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-10-25.You can download it here: GKFiveCorners1010256.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    GaveKal Daily - The Global Tea Party Movement?

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-10-22.You can download it here: GKDailyReport101022.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    The Circle of Manipulation Lives On

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-10-19.You can download it here: GKDailyReport101019.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    GaveKal Daily - Political Question Marks on the Horizon

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-10-18.You can download it here: GKDailyReport1010183.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    Why QE Has Not Stopped the Yen's Ascent

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-10-12.You can download it here: GKDailyReport1010122.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    How India's Banks Benefit from Foreign Inflows

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-10-12.You can download it here: GKFiveCorners1010121.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    If You Can't Sell, then Build

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-10-12.You can download it here: GKFiveCorners1010122.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    Indonesia Takes 'Hot Money' in Stride

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-10-12.You can download it here: GKFiveCorners1010123.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    Relative Performance of Asia and the US

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-10-12.You can download it here: GKFiveCorners1010124.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    GaveKal Daily - Love and Disdain in the FX Markets

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-10-06.You can download it here: GKDailyReport101006.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    What You See and What You Get

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-10-05.You can download it here: GKFiveCorners1010056.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    Indian Infrastructure and Punjabi Weddings

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-10-03.You can download it here: GKAdHocComment101003.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    GaveKal Daily - Thailand Confirms Trend of Asian Financial Liberalization

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-09-27.You can download it here: GKDailyReport1009271.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    Property, Policy and Politics in Korea

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-09-27.You can download it here: GKFiveCorners1009274.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    Singapore and the Impossible Trinity

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-09-27.You can download it here: GKFiveCorners1009275.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    Will Property Pop Korea's Winning Streak?

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-09-27.You can download it here: GKFiveCorners1009277.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    China's Role in Japan's Intervention

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-09-20.You can download it here: GKFiveCorners1009202.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    Conversations on the Yen Intervention

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-09-16.You can download it here: GKAdHocComment100916.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    GaveKal Daily - The Questions Behind the JPY Intervention

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-09-15.You can download it here: GKDailyReport100915.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    How the World Works

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-09-10.You can download it here: GKAdHocComment1009101.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    The Multiple Bond Sell Signals

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-09-06.You can download it here: GKFiveCorners1009066.pdf

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    GaveKal Daily - Recommitment to Easing in West, but East is Mixed

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-08-30.You can download it here: GKDailyReport100830.pdf

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    A Deal for our Times

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-08-30.You can download it here: GKFiveCorners1008302.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    Servicing India

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-08-30.You can download it here: GKFiveCorners1008303.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    Uncertainty the Only Winner in Australian Polls

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-08-30.You can download it here: GKFiveCorners1008304.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    Trade War Scenarios for Southeast Asia

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-08-30.You can download it here: GKFiveCorners1008305.pdf

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    GaveKal Daily - A Special Day to Remind Ourselves...

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-08-24.You can download it here: GKDailyReport100824.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    It's Not Just About Monsoons

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-08-16.You can download it here: GKFiveCorners1008162.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    The Bull Market in Asian Bonds and Inflation

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-08-16.You can download it here: GKFiveCorners1008163.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    Why is China Buying JGBs?

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-08-16.You can download it here: GKFiveCorners1008164.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    Why So Quick?

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-08-16.You can download it here: GKFiveCorners1008165.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    GaveKal Daily - Asian Tourism or the Acceleration Phenomenon at Work

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-08-10.You can download it here: GKDailyReport100810.pdf

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    GaveKal Daily - Asian Currencies Outperform Once Again

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-08-09.You can download it here: GKDailyReport1008092.pdf

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    GaveKal Daily - The Tussle for Influence in Southeast Asia

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-08-02.You can download it here: GKDailyReport100802.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    GaveKal Daily - An Indian Summer?

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-07-30.You can download it here: GKDailyReport1007301.pdf

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    GaveKal Daily - Another Bullish Development from China

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-07-28.You can download it here: GKDailyReport100728.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    GaveKal Daily - A New PC Cycle

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-07-23.You can download it here: GKDailyReport100723.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    GaveKal Daily - This Year's Surprises

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-07-22.You can download it here: GKDailyReport100722.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    GaveKal Daily - Southeast Asia's Triple Merit Scenario

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-07-20.You can download it here: GKDailyReport100720.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    Behind the ASEAN Outperformance

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-07-19.You can download it here: GKFiveCorners1007191.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    A Less Cyclical Korea

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-07-19.You can download it here: GKFiveCorners1007192.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    Is It Still Time to Overweight Tech?

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-07-14.You can download it here: GKAdHocComment1007141.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    GaveKal Daily - Kan Can't

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-07-12.You can download it here: GKDailyReport100712.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    MUST READ - Asia's Paradigm Shift

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-07-09.You can download it here: GKAdHocComment100709.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    GaveKal Daily - Western Doves, Asian Hawks

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-07-09.You can download it here: GKDailyReport100709.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    Assets to Own in a Triple Merit Boom

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-07-08.You can download it here: GKFiveCorners1007081.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    Singaporean Banks: A Play on Asia's TMS

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-07-08.You can download it here: GKFiveCorners1007083.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    The Rally on Indonesian Property Has Legs

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-07-08.You can download it here: GKFiveCorners1007084.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    Foreigners Quietly Flock to Indian Equities

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-07-07.You can download it here: GKFiveCorners1007072.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    GaveKal Daily - The BoJ on Holiday

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-07-06.You can download it here: GKDailyReport100706.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    GaveKal Daily - Discordance Down Under

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-06-24.You can download it here: GKDailyReport100624.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    A Changing Fund Environment for India Co?

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-06-21.You can download it here: GKFiveCorners1006211.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    Beyond the Malaysian Underperformance

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-06-21.You can download it here: GKFiveCorners1006212.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    The Legacy of 'Creative Destruction' in Korea?

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-06-21.You can download it here: GKFiveCorners1006215.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    GaveKal Daily - The Return of Capital Controls in Asia?

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-06-18.You can download it here: GKDailyReport100618.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    GaveKal Daily - Is Fiscal Discipine Becoming "Populist"?

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2010-06-17.You can download it here: GKDailyReport1006172.pdf

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