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E.g., 14-05-2021
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    Gavekal Research

    The Future Of Chips Is Overcapacity

    Semiconductors are tough to come by these days, and the shortage will be deep and long-lasting. Yet chips are about to turn into more of a commoditized product, just as companies make huge investments in production capacity and governments spend big to achieve self-sufficiency on national security grounds. This will lead to permanent excess capacity.

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    Ricardian Growth Is Fragile, Schumpeterian Growth Is Anti-Fragile

    Capitalism works well when activity is undertaken using David Ricardo’s law of comparative advantage and Joseph Schumpeter’s process of creative destruction. Charles argues that an era of Ricardian growth for many countries and industries is running out of road and the drivers of Schumpeterian economic transformation are shifting.

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    Gavekal Research

    The Global Pivot To The Indo-Pacific

    The Indo-Pacific is at the heart of global geopolitics today. The US, UK, and European Union are all shifting their attention east. Tom argues that the new treatment of the Indian and Pacific Oceans as a single, connected space reflects a key shift in managing China’s regional power. The impact will be felt in both strategic and economic terms.

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    Gavekal Research

    India Is Running Out Of Road

    After Mumbai and Delhi, Bengaluru is the latest big Indian city to face a second wave of Covid infections. India’s underfunded health system is collapsing, as we feared it could a year ago. Yet markets are shrugging off the crisis: equities are flat, the rupee resilient. Tom and Udith investigate whether this disconnect is likely to persist.

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    Gavekal Research

    Video: The Economic Impact Of India's Second Wave

    If India's latest Covid wave peaks in the next few weeks, economic catastrophe can be avoided. However, India does not have much policy space in which to operate, so the counter scenario of new and more virile mutations driving a worsening outbreak does mean that hitherto stoic local investors could yet throw in the towel on Indian risk assets.

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    Webinar: Global Investment Roundtable, May 2021

    Joe Biden's enormous fiscal initiatives mark a potential sea change in the US government’s role in the economy. They may yet get watered down as the US president negotiates with more conservative members of his party, but tax and spend is clearly the new mantra in Washington DC. The question for investors is what this means for assets in the US and around the world.

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    Gavekal Research

    The Broader Risk Of Semiconductor Shortages

    Today’s semiconductor supply constraints are structural in nature, and affect many industries, not just automobile production. In this piece, Vincent argues that if chip shortages start to cause cascading disruption along the Asian electronics value chain, the region's export engine may stall. In turn, that will cast doubt on the strength of Asian equities and currencies.

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    Gavekal Research

    Japan’s Big Bets

    Yoshihide Suga’s stodgy record does not suggest he is in the mold of relative political mavericks, yet in recent days, he has taken some punchy policy decisions that signal he is not just a caretaker but has serious political ambitions. Global investors who overlooked Japan in recent years due to the lack of a compelling narrative may want to pay attention.

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    Gavekal Research

    India’s Outbreak

    A year ago, the world’s media were focusing on heaps of bad Covid news in the US and Europe. Unsurprisingly, global risk assets did not like it: equities collapsed, the WTI oil price fell into negative territory, and OECD government bond yields fell to new lows. Fast forward a year, and the reporting from India is even more apocalyptic, yet, markets are brushing off the bad news.

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    Gavekal Research

    Two EM Headwinds Intensify

    Emerging market investors face two worrying developments. First, there is the risk that India’s new wave of infections could be repeated in other developing countries struggling to vaccinate their populations. Second, there are concerns that the brightest spot in EMs—Asian electronics exports—is now jeopardized by the worsening shortage in semiconductors.

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    Gavekal Research

    Taxing Capital

    Next week Joe Biden will set out plans to double the rate of capital gains tax for Americans making over US$1mn a year. The president’s proposal is the latest element of his initiative to levy higher taxes, from one direction or another, on the elusive earnings of multinational corporations and wealthy individuals in order to help fund higher government spending. Whatever the political merits of Biden’s plan, his multi-pronged approach will be...

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    Gavekal Research

    Trading The Vaccination S-Curve

    Vaccination programs around the world have gotten off the ground at widely varying speeds. But everywhere they tend to follow a similar S-curve trajectory. While most countries are still in the early stages of their vaccination programs, a very few are in their late stages, where the S-curves begin to flatten. Their experience provides an investible roadmap.

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    Gavekal Research

    India’s Giant Problem

    Having recorded 261,000 Covid infections on Sunday, India has emerged as the worst affected country in the pandemic. Efforts to contain the virus likely mean the IMF's growth forecast of 12.5% this fiscal year is too optimistic. The real economic worry would be India’s ability to escape from the structural slowdown that began before the arrival of the pandemic.

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    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: Asset Allocation Amid Low Interest Rates

    Charles Gave likes to say he is a rules-based investor, and he’s never been short of ideas. In this webinar, Charles and Gavekal TrackMacro’s Didier Darcet presented their latest work on portfolio construction, including a tool to help fixed-income managers to get satisfactory returns despite punitively low yields.

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    Gavekal Research

    Asia Goes Seriously Unconventional

    Asian governments reacted to the region’s late 1990s crisis by prioritizing export growth, financial stability and external resilience. The result has been two decades of orthodox monetary policy and muted public spending. This began to change with the pandemic’s onset and recent moves suggest a deeper embrace of irregular monetary policies.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: Global Investment Roundtable, April 2021

    In the long years between the 2008-09 financial crash and the 2020 Covid crisis the US stock market massively outperformed equities in the rest of the world. In recent quarters, however, the US market has lost its edge. Yesterday, Louis, KX and Udith weighed the merits of ex-US equities versus US stocks in a post-pandemic world.

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    Gavekal Research

    Living With The Next Covid Wave

    Global markets are looking ahead to a post-pandemic world, but Covid-19 is still very much with us. Globally, new infection rates have risen sharply since late February, reversing their earlier decline. In the last few weeks, the US has experienced an alarming uptick in infections. The European Union is struggling to contain its latest Covid wave, which in several major countries compares with November’s for severity. And across the developing...

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    Gavekal Research

    Strategy Monthly: The Case For Ex-US Equities

    The US trade deficit cycle suggests the world is heading towards a protracted period of US dollar depreciation. With valuations outside the US relatively attractive, and deglobalization meaning ex-US equities will offer greater diversification benefits in future, investors should consider increasing their exposure to ex-US equities.

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    Gavekal Research

    Abundance And Shortages

    Over decades, investors have gotten used to living in a world of plenty, in which capital, labor, commodities and knowledge have all been in abundant supply. Today, however, while the world remains awash with cheap capital, there are signs that the supplies of labor, commodities and—most ominously of all—knowledge may be facing tightening constraints. In this paper, Louis asks whether, after years of abundance, the world may be facing a...

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    Gavekal Research

    Who Will Buy India Now?

    On Tuesday, the US dollar index hit a five-month high and treasury yields maintained their relentless march higher. On the same day, the Indian rupee—this year’s best performing emerging market currency—plunged to a one-month low. A mix of tighter financial conditions and a worsening Covid-19 situation has investors reassessing the surprising notion of India as an EM haven. They are right to do so, for the macro tailwinds driving the rupee’s...

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