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E.g., 29-10-2020
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    Gavekal Research

    The Pressure For Debt Relief

    Pressure is growing from struggling developing economies for a new round of debt relief. The difference with past campaigns is that the world’s biggest creditor to such nations is China, which could be owed at least US$380bn. China is likely to adopt a pragmatic approach and negotiate one-on-one forbearance agreements that end up costing it tens of billions of dollars.

    5
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    East Africa’s Chinese Gamble

    China’s deep economic roots in Africa provoke alarm in the US and concern among debtor nations, especially as some costly infrastructure projects prove financially unviable. But our latest in-depth DeepChina report explains why China’s presence is generally welcome in East Africa, even as the era of huge loans and megaprojects draws to an end.

    7
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    Gavekal Research

    Heading In The Right Direction, Slowly

    The Covid-19 epidemic now seems firmly under control in most major economies, and the direction of the disease data is consistently positive. From an infection-control perspective, the outlook is much more positive than when we did our last major review. The path to economic recovery, however, still looks slow and rocky.

    3
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Choosing Currency Stability

    In the global crises of 1998 and 2008, China chose currency stability over competitive devaluation—and in the coronavirus crisis of 2020 it is making the same choice. In this piece, Wei argues that preventing capital outflows outweighs the PBOC’s other priorities for now, even if this means having to accept a less competitive currency.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    The Revenge Of The Little Grey Men

    There is a strange contradiction in most developed economic systems as they have been driven by freely assembling entrepreneurs who operate on the basis of money, which is the ultimate tool of state coercion. Charles is worried that the private, risk-taking element of our economies may be fully extinguished by responses to the Covid-19 crisis.

    5
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    A Poor Prognosis For US-China Ties

    The Covid-19 pandemic has been bad for the health of the US-China relationship, which was already in poor shape. In this piece, Arthur explains how US security hawks have seized the opportunity to hammer home the argument that China is untrustworthy, pushing the US debate over China policy in a more confrontational direction.

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    An Anti-Fragile Beauty Contest

    Following the 2008 crisis, the S&P 500 bottomed on March 9 2009. Since then, an investor in physical gold would have gained 82.2% while an investor in 10-year US treasuries would have made gains of 65.6% (with coupons re-invested). But with both assets testing their pre-crisis highs, there are several reasons to believe that gold is now set to outperform structurally.

    9
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    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: The Outlook For China And Emerging Markets

    Arthur Kroeber spoke on the macro situation in China. Michael Clendenin, principal of Gavekal RedTech, presented their work on consumer sentiment and activity in China. Udith Sikand gave a rundown of what's happening in emerging markets.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    New Concerns For A New World

    We are in uncharted policy territory. Never before have we seen the kind of GDP contractions now being projected for most OECD countries, and never before have investors had to deal with such extremes of uncertainty. Against this backdrop, Louis attempts to answer 10 of the most burning questions posed by clients about the shape of the post-Covid-19 world.

    7
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Reshuffling Global Supply Chains

    Globally distributed production has already become less attractive since the 2008 crisis, and the Covid-19 pandemic will intensify the trend for global manufacturing to reduce its dependence on China. Dan argues this will encourage supply chains to become more robust, more decentralized and, ironically, more truly global.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Destroying The Economy To Save It

    Remember the American military officer in Vietnam who explained US tactics by saying “it became necessary to destroy the town to save it?” Well in the not too distant future, we may have to accept that our economic policymakers have adopted the same tactics in the battle against the Covid-19 pandemic.

    3
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    A New Stage In The Monetary Cycle

    While the People’s Bank of China remains more conservative than other global central banks, it is now clearly signaling to the market that liquidity will remain loose for the foreseeable future. This means low interest rates and, according to Wei, favorable conditions for a Chinese government bond rally.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: Looking Through The Lockdowns

    Andrew and Rosealea discussed China’s slow return to normal, the state of the property and construction sector, and warned of the global demand shock China will face due to Covid-19. Will outlined his view on asset allocation in light of the shock to the US economy and the asset price adjustments that have taken place so far.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Rearranging The Deckchairs For Profit

    When everything is falling apart around you, the urge to do something—anything—becomes irresistible. A good solution is to start rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic. It may not change the bigger picture, but it keeps you busy and does no harm in the longer term. In this spirit, allow me to suggest a little rearrangement that should do no harm, and could even be very profitable.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Waiting For Godot (21st Century Edition)

    For years, investors have been waiting for China’s massive accumulation of debt to lead to a “Minsky moment”. Instead, in the Covid-19 crisis it is Western central banks that are blowing out their balance sheets in a desperate attempt to stabilize financial markets and their economies—while Chinese government bonds have proved “anti-fragile”.

    2
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Job Market Shock Continues

    The lockdown to control Covid-19 has already cost millions of China’s migrant workers a month or more of lost wages. But the shock to employment is not over: many service businesses are not back to normal, and manufacturers face plunging export orders. In this piece, Ernan analyzes the multiple pressures on China’s job market in 2020.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Breaking Down An International Liquidity Crisis

    These are hard times for the global system as big economies are effectively shuttered and risk appetite craters. The US dollar has surged and many leveraged countries face trouble servicing their debts. As these factors become self-reinforcing, Charles thinks it is worth standing back to assess what is causing what. He does this by explaining the dynamics of an international liquidity crisis and suggests specific investment strategies to handle...

    1
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    Gavekal Research

    The Truth In Trump’s Tweets

    Oil market pundits were quick to dismiss Donald Trump’s tweeted claim Thursday that Saudi Arabia and Russia are ready to agree crude production cuts of 10-15mn bpd as “absurd” and “incredible”. But oil production cuts of the magnitude flagged by Trump are certainly in the pipeline—whether as the result of a new Opec+ agreement or not.

    1
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Getting Out Of Lockdown

    China is starting to get out of its strict Covid-19 lockdown, but its economy will not get fully back to normal until the outbreaks in other countries also get under control. In this piece, Andrew and the team dig into the data to piece together the economy’s trajectory for March and April: a narrowing decline rather than a fast rebound.

    5
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    Gavekal Research

    Strategy Monthly: Lockdowns And Lost Output

    Markets have been upended by the twin uncertainty of Covid-19’s rapacious spread and the economic effects of stopping it. Massive policy responses have convinced investors that a V-shaped recovery is possible, but this is far from certain. As the outbreak in Europe and the US hits its peak phase over the next month, markets will swing on the timing of any proposed exit from lockdowns.

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