Gavekal Dragonomics

Tom Miller, Research Team

Nov 30th 2014

China is pursuing infrastructure diplomacy in Central Asia, and it wields a big checkbook. The recipients of its largesse have mixed feelings.

Gavekal Dragonomics

Andrew Batson, Research Team

Nov 30th 2014

China has launched a new round of state-owned enterprise reform, a welcome move after a decade of stasis. So far this reform is less a coherent plan than a collection of initiatives by officials and executives.

Gavekal Dragonomics

Arthur Kroeber, Research Team

Nov 30th 2014

Much commentary on China assumes that beneath its tough veneer the Party is fragile and walks on a knife-edge of popular discontent. Nothing could be further from the truth.

Gavekal Dragonomics

Rosealea Yao

Nov 27th 2014

Is the latest downturn in China’s housing market just another cyclical correction, or the bursting of an unsustainable bubble? To cut through the confusion surrounding this key part of the economy, it is crucial to understand the fundamentals. In this chartbook, our annual review of the housing and construction market, Rosealea explains our outlook for the long-term prospects for housing demand in China; explores the implication of changing...

Gavekal Research

Will Denyer, Tan Kai Xian

Nov 25th 2014

The rebound in US equities since their mid-October trough has been impressive. After giving up almost all its year to date gains in just four weeks, the S&P 500 snapped back even more quickly, ending October at a new record high. Since then, it has extended its advance to notch up a YTD gain of 12%. Yet, until just a few days ago, the relative performance of sectors within the index indicated a degree of caution on the part of investors....

Gavekal Research

Long Chen

Nov 24th 2014

First the Bank of Japan, then the European Central Bank, now comes the People’s Bank of China. On Friday evening the PBOC cut its benchmark interest rates for the first time since July 2012. The direction of the move had long been foreseen, but the timing of the announcement came as a surprise. We had expected concerns over China’s high levels of domestic debt would enable the central bank to resist pressure to cut rates until the first quarter...

Gavekal Research

Arthur Kroeber

Nov 18th 2014

Summit meetings of APEC, the Asia-Pacific economic cooperation talking shop, rarely produce much of interest beyond a funny group photo of 21 heads of state struggling to look comfortable in ersatz local dress of the host country. But last week’s summit in Beijing, the companion state visit of President Obama, and the subsequent G-20 summit in Australia produced a surprisingly substantial feast of positive news. The deal flow was a testament to...

Gavekal Dragonomics

Rosealea Yao

Nov 17th 2014

The extended decline in China’s housing sales is finally showing clear signs of reaching a bottom. The latest data show the decline in national property sales narrowed sharply in October, with volumes dropping just 1.6% after a 10.3% fall in September. And the daily transaction figures reported by a number of major cities suggest market activity continued strengthening in November. This improvement is primarily a response to the favorable...

Gavekal Research

Tom Miller

Nov 12th 2014

Xi Jinping is making good on his promise to restore China’s position on the world stage. On Monday, China agreed to slash tariffs on high-tech imports, breaking almost 18 months of deadlock with the US over how to update the WTO’s Information Technology Agreement. In coming to terms, China showed it is willing to work with the US in support of multilateral trade frameworks. But China’s President Xi also used his chairmanship of this year’s Asia-...