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E.g., 06-03-2021
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    Gavekal Research

    5C China: A Fiscal Reform Too Far (Probably)

    The Chinese government is determined to tighten up central control of local government debts which soared after the global financial crisis to RMB18trn by June 2013. Prophets of a Chinese hard landing have often pointed to this local debt splurge as a key trigger for China facing some kind of financial crisis.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Travels Along The New Silk Road: The Economics Of Power

    China’s economic expansion overseas is one of the defining geopolitical shifts of our time. Chinese firms have already invested in excess of US$500bn abroad, and the annual flow of overseas investment is set to overtake the flow of foreign direct investment this year (see More Deals, More Players). The push into Africa has captured most attention, but China’s economic tentacles are spreading across developing Asia, too—not least in Central Asia...

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    Gavekal Research

    Buying The Dip? Choose Asia

    Markets remain jittery, but the last week has at least seen a break in the downward momentum. Hence it may be worth taking stock of relative performance by the big regions. Looking across the MSCI benchmarks, the All Country World index is down –4.7% since its peak in early September, while the US, Eurozone, Emerging Markets (ex-Asia) and Emerging Asia declined respectively by –3.9%, -5.2%, -8.4% and –5.4%.

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    Gavekal Research

    Blood And Bazaars On The New Silk Road

    After more than three decades of passive foreign policy, China has a strong leader unafraid of articulating a vision of expansionism. Like Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping wants to re-establish his country’s historical sphere of influence—but Xi’s vision is based on economic logic rather than political machismo. Across Asia, China is using its enormous domestic market, financial power and prowess in building infrastructure to suck its neighbors into...

    1
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Slouching Towards 7% Growth

    Global growth is slowing and anyone looking for cheer is not going to find it in China, where third quarter GDP grew 7.3% year-on-year—the lowest growth rate since the first quarter of 2009. The slowdown is hardly unexpected, given the limited effects of Beijing’s growth-supporting policies earlier in the year and the long downward slide of private sector investment (see So Much For China’s Mini-Stimulus and Can Reforms Revitalize The Private...

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    Gavekal Research

    Give Last Week Back To The Indians

    4
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    Gavekal Research

    Torschlusspanik!

    The Germans, it is said, have a word for everything—and their word for what we saw in European and US markets on Wednesday and in Asia on Thursday morning is Torschlusspanik. Literally ‘gate-shut-panic’, this describes the nasty crush that develops when everyone rushes at once for an exit that is fast closing; inevitably someone gets injured.

    1
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Can Reforms Revitalize The Private Sector?

    China’s heavy reliance on local governments and state enterprises for its stimulus efforts in recent years has diverted attention away from the true driver of growth: the private sector. But unfortunately investment by private firms has been steadily slowing for years, and so has overall growth. In this presentation, Andrew explains why private-sector investment has been weak, and what the government can do about it. There is potential for...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Five Corners (October 15): The Equity Rout

    Overview: François Chauchat asks whether a US recovery is enough to drive global equity markets or has the world changed.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Oil Markets On The Brink

    Welcome to the “new normal” of the global oil markets. Investors are waking up to the reality that supply-demand fundamentals have gotten out of whack and are now readjusting. The price of Brent has fallen from its June high of US$115/barrel to around US$88/bbl, its lowest level since late 2010. This report will contend that prices could fall further before settling into a lower range and remaining there for a significant period.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Behind The Equity Market Meltdown

    Why are stock markets around the world falling? The surest explanation is one that works whenever the markets move in a big way: there are more sellers than buyers after a long period without a meaningful correction (it is three years since the 20% decline that ended in October 2011). A more sophisticated account of the correction might point to the collapse of oil prices and its impact on natural resource shares. While falling oil prices are...

    3
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Shanghai A-Shares: The Illusion Of Value

    China’s domestic stock markets have been on a tear: Shanghai stocks are up 15% since July, despite recent weak macro data and the absence of aggressive policy easing. Soon, overseas investors will be able to join in the rally: later this month, China will launch a new link between the Shanghai and Hong Kong stock exchanges. But should foreign investors really be eager to pile into Shanghai?

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    Normal Or Systemic Markets?

    In The Crucible Arthur Miller wrote “until an hour before the Devil fell, God thought him beautiful in Heaven”. Granted, equity markets have not exactly suffered Lucifer-like de-ratings lately. Nonetheless, the price action in stock markets around the world is looking less and less healthy by the day. Let me explain: when examining the performance of a given index over a very long period of time, one typically finds that, like most things in...

    3
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    Gavekal Research

    If You Keep On Doing What You’ve Always Done...

    ...you'll keep on getting what you’ve always got. At least, that's what any sports coach worth his salt would tell a losing team in the half-time huddle. And perhaps this is the problem facing the big developed economies. Not enough of today's bien-pensants (Hollande, Merkel, Yellen, Bernanke...) or their advisers (Summers, Piketty, Krugman...) have spent time chasing a ball around a field. Let me explain.

    2
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Hidden Trade Deficit

    China’s current account surplus, once the focus of global economic anxiety, is shrinking dramatically: it fell to US$182bn in 2013, from its peak of US$420bn in 2008, and as a share of GDP has fallen to 2% from 10%. The conventional wisdom is that this fall reflects much weaker export growth in the poor global environment that followed the financial crisis. In fact the problems of traditional goods trade are overstated: China’s merchandise trade...

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    Gavekal Research

    5C China: Calling Time On The A-Share Rally

    Stocks on the Shanghai exchange have rallied 15% over the last three months, and international investors are poised for the opening of relatively untrammeled access to onshore equities when the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect program kicks off later this month (though the rumor-mill suggests it will be pushed back for technical reasons). Tracker funds have been capitalizing on this renewed interest: Deutsche’s year-old Harvest CSI 300 China A-...

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    Gavekal Research

    5C Overview: Waiting For The Regional Rotation

    After years of doubt about the efficacy of US economic policies, the revival of confidence in America stands out as one of the key developments of 2014. This turnaround has been attested by the recovery of capital investment, by the resilience of the US economy to the Federal Reserve’s tapering process, and more recently by the strength of the US dollar.

    0
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    Fathom China

    Profile: Great Wall Motor: Off The Road

    Great Wall Motor was once considered China’s most promising private car company. It had an excellent reputation, a strong and charismatic founder, a strong position in the fast-growing market for SUVs, and a head start in exporting cars to developed markets. Today, Great Wall risks losing its way.

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    Gavekal Research

    The Hong Kong Endgame

    Today, after a week of excitement, the democracy demonstrations in Hong Kong have largely fizzled out—at least for now. As the city returned to work on Monday morning, the remaining protesters did not try to prevent civil servants from reaching their offices in the government’s downtown headquarters. By midday the numbers outside the complex had dwindled to just a few scores, down from the many tens of thousands that had jammed surrounding...

    12
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    Gavekal Research

    Five Corners (1 October): The Energy Selloff

    Overview: Louis looks at the decline in oil prices and wonders whether the genesis can be found back in May when the leaders of China and Russia met for an historic summit.

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