E.g., 25-06-2021
E.g., 25-06-2021
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    Gavekal Research

    A Bear Market, Or A Rotation?

    Last week’s violent sell off in Chinese A-shares inflicted punishing losses on mainland retail investors and prompted any number of skeptical international commentators to declare that mainland China’s stock markets were a bubble that had now burst. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 13% over the week, losing an eye-watering 6.4% on Friday alone to round off the worst week for Chinese equities since the financial crisis of 2008. With the index...

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    Gavekal Research

    Still A Lonely Power

    China, the political scientist David Shambaugh declared last year, is a “lonely power”—lacking close friends and possessing no allies. That is something that Xi Jinping’s “proactive” foreign policy aims to change. His New Silk Road vision—now officially termed the “Belt and Road Initiative”—is to forge a “community of shared destiny,” in which Asia’s prosperity is tied to China’s rise. Rather than building formal alliances, Beijing’s goal is to...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    China Update: Local Government Bond Issuance Takes Off

    From a standing start just one month ago, China’s local government bond market has leapt into life with remarkable vigor. Since mid-May, when Jiangsu became the first province to issue bonds under Beijing’s local government debt restructuring program, a further 16 provinces have also tapped the market, raising a total of RMB600bn.

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    Gavekal Research

    Five Corners (June 17): Bond Market Shakeout

    Overview: Charles Gave argues that the lack of market-making capacity in the financial sector means that the next big market move could be highly disorderly. United States: 10-year Treasuries look overvalued on a fundamental basis, but don’t expect an immediate correction says Tan Kai Xian. Europe: German bond yields have had a roller coaster ride of late so François Chauchat checks in to reassess their valuation anchors. China: From a standing...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Turning Cautious On Land Reform

    The Chinese leadership’s recent enthusiasm for “modern agriculture” featuring large, mechanized farms has waned in recent months, as abuses mount and efficiency gains fail to appear. The evolution of land reform policy is thus an excellent lesson in how reformist ambitions do not always survive an encounter with China’s messy reality.

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    Gavekal Research

    5C China: Local Government Bond Issuance Takes Off

    From a standing start just one month ago, China’s local government bond market has leapt into life with remarkable vigor. Since mid-May, when Jiangsu became the first province to issue bonds under Beijing’s local government debt restructuring program, a further 16 provinces have also tapped the market, raising a total of RMB600bn. The rapid pace at which local governments are issuing bonds to pay down their short term debts means that Beijing’s...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Capital Spending Downshift

    Easier monetary policy and targeted stimulus may stabilize China’s economy, but anyone hoping for a rebound in capital spending growth is sure to be disappointed. Real gross fixed capital formation rose a meager 6.6% in 2014, the slowest pace since 1999 and far below the 15% average in 2002-11. It is likely that investment growth will fall a bit further this year. One reason is that even after rate cuts, China’s real cost of capital is still...

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    Gavekal Research

    Oil At Its Ceiling, Not Floor

    With oil prices rebounding strongly this week, despite the non-event of last Friday’s meeting of the Organization Of Petroleum Exporting Countries, it seems appropriate to re-examine the case for cheaper oil that we have been presenting since late last year. Specifically, our view in December that US$50/bbl was more likely to be a ceiling than a floor for the Brent oil price in the long term has been contradicted by market actions of recent...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Making Sense Of Corporate China

    Like it or not, financial liberalization means that global portfolios will soon have to include far more Chinese stocks and bonds. Investors need to pay close attention to what they are buying.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q2 2015 - How To Invest In Shanghai Without Losing Your Shirt

    Investing in Chinese equities will soon no longer be optional. Doing so successfully is a challenging task, but not an impossible one.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Youku Tudou: Watch With Care

    Youku leads in China’s raucous online video market, but will struggle to stay independent thanks to government censorship and a business model combining the worst aspects of YouTube and Netflix.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Gome: A Second Life, From Behind Bars

    The once and perhaps future king of bricks and mortar retail shows how to come back from the dead, survive the online onslaught, and thrive while its founder serves a 14-year jail term.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Nu Skin: Life In The Gray Zone

    A multi-level marketing firm shows it is possible to survive while skirting the edges of Chinese commercial law.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Tingyi: Scale Over Margins

    Conventional wisdom says consumer-products firms do best to sacrifice volume for margins. China’s biggest instant-noodle maker proves otherwise.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Biostime: High-End Success Story

    A leader in the ethically challenged infant formula industry proves the value of a high-priced strategy.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Books-Straight From The Crocodile's Mouth

    Alibaba’s World: How a Remarkable Chinese Company Is Changing the Face of Global Business

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    By The Numbers

    Deflation tightens its grip. Headline YoY GDP growth fell to 7% in the first quarter, but more striking was the drop in nominal GDP to 5.8%, the lowest figure since 2009. This implied a GDP deflator of -1.1%, compared to an average of 0.8% in 2014. QoQ GDP growth also slowed to an anemic 5.3%. The slowdown was led by weakness in heavy industry and property; employment, wages and consumption all maintained solid gains.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ: The Chinese Company

    In this special issue of the CEQ focusing on the Chinese company, Matthew Forney lays out the rules of the road for investing in China, and how avoid getting caught by the stereotypes of Chinese companies entrepreneurial miracles or fraud-ridden freak shows. Five profiles offer bottom-up lessons on how Chinese companies work.

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    Gavekal Research

    Protect And Survive

    Bond yields keep rising, emerging markets are softening and key cyclical stocks have taken a bath. The more I look at the global situation the more I am convinced that both economies and markets are reaching a point of transition. And as that old sage Yogi Berra said: “When you come to a fork in the road, take it!”

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Chinese Equities And The Taiwan Syndrome

    Is China’s equity market going through a structural re-rating, or blowing up a bubble fueled by easy money and dumb investors? The broad Gavekal view is that China is again pursuing transformative economic reform which should end with a less meddling state and a greater role for market forces (see The New Way To Think About China). In emerging markets, such bursts of reform usually follow a financial crisis so conditions are rarely conducive to...

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