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E.g., 14-04-2021
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    Gavekal Research

    The Unequal Sell-Off in Chinese Stocks

    While the world’s headlines are concentrating on Greece, the real drama in financial markets is happening much further to the East. Since its peak in mid-June, the Shanghai Composite Index has now fallen by almost -23%, putting mainland Chinese shares in what is generally accepted to be bear market territory. Meanwhile intra-day volatility has reached mind-blowing levels, with the index swinging by more than 6% from peak to trough in each of the...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Five Corners (July 01): Manufacturing Machinations

    Overview: Charles Gave argues that the manufacturing sector remains the last bastion of proper economic data in the US, and the message being sent is not good. United States: Tan Kai Xian somewhat demurs from Charles and argues that the US manufacturing sector is unlikely to be the fountainhead of the next US recession. Europe: Central Europe has emerged as the manufacturing powerhouse of Europe at the expense of France and the southern...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Chinese Equity Demand And The Acceleration Phenomenon

    More than any other major stock market, Shanghai is driven by flows from domestic retail investors. And obviously, in the past couple of weeks, many of these retail investors have decided to head for the exits (the Shanghai Composite Index has plunged -22% from its early June high). Of course, this drop only brought Shanghai back to where the index stood in mid-April; but why the sudden rush for the door? Have the drivers of retail sentiment...

    4
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    How Low Will Interest Rates Go?

    Continued weak growth and high borrowing costs have led the People’s Bank of China to cut interest rates again. The timing looked like a gift to stock-market investors, coming after the 20% correction in the Shanghai market over the past two weeks, but stocks were nonetheless down another 3.3% on Monday. We think more monetary easing is inevitable, though we suspect that for the next half-year or so the central bank will try hold off on rate...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    5C China: Better Manufacturing, Not Just Bigger

    China’s status as the workshop of the world faces no serious challengers. Accounting for nearly 25% of global manufacturing value-added, it is by far the world’s largest single manufacturing economy. But the country’s leaders still seem discontented. China may have quantity, they fret, but it lacks quality. It is not enough for China to be a “big” manufacturer, they say, it must also be a “strong” one. With a spate of new industrial policies...

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Macro Update: After Easing, A Limited Recovery

    In the latest quarterly chartbook, Chen Long summarizes the outlook for China’s growth and economic policies in a concise presentation. After a very weak start to 2015, the authorities stepped up their supportive policies. Housing sales are now growing again as a result, but the industrial sector is still weak, and the recovery has been marginal. But the fixes to some of the first half’s fiscal problems should offer more support to growth in the...

    3
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    Gavekal Research

    A Bear Market, Or A Rotation?

    Last week’s violent sell off in Chinese A-shares inflicted punishing losses on mainland retail investors and prompted any number of skeptical international commentators to declare that mainland China’s stock markets were a bubble that had now burst. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 13% over the week, losing an eye-watering 6.4% on Friday alone to round off the worst week for Chinese equities since the financial crisis of 2008. With the index...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Still A Lonely Power

    China, the political scientist David Shambaugh declared last year, is a “lonely power”—lacking close friends and possessing no allies. That is something that Xi Jinping’s “proactive” foreign policy aims to change. His New Silk Road vision—now officially termed the “Belt and Road Initiative”—is to forge a “community of shared destiny,” in which Asia’s prosperity is tied to China’s rise. Rather than building formal alliances, Beijing’s goal is to...

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    China Update: Local Government Bond Issuance Takes Off

    From a standing start just one month ago, China’s local government bond market has leapt into life with remarkable vigor. Since mid-May, when Jiangsu became the first province to issue bonds under Beijing’s local government debt restructuring program, a further 16 provinces have also tapped the market, raising a total of RMB600bn.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Five Corners (June 17): Bond Market Shakeout

    Overview: Charles Gave argues that the lack of market-making capacity in the financial sector means that the next big market move could be highly disorderly. United States: 10-year Treasuries look overvalued on a fundamental basis, but don’t expect an immediate correction says Tan Kai Xian. Europe: German bond yields have had a roller coaster ride of late so François Chauchat checks in to reassess their valuation anchors. China: From a standing...

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Turning Cautious On Land Reform

    The Chinese leadership’s recent enthusiasm for “modern agriculture” featuring large, mechanized farms has waned in recent months, as abuses mount and efficiency gains fail to appear. The evolution of land reform policy is thus an excellent lesson in how reformist ambitions do not always survive an encounter with China’s messy reality.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    5C China: Local Government Bond Issuance Takes Off

    From a standing start just one month ago, China’s local government bond market has leapt into life with remarkable vigor. Since mid-May, when Jiangsu became the first province to issue bonds under Beijing’s local government debt restructuring program, a further 16 provinces have also tapped the market, raising a total of RMB600bn. The rapid pace at which local governments are issuing bonds to pay down their short term debts means that Beijing’s...

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Capital Spending Downshift

    Easier monetary policy and targeted stimulus may stabilize China’s economy, but anyone hoping for a rebound in capital spending growth is sure to be disappointed. Real gross fixed capital formation rose a meager 6.6% in 2014, the slowest pace since 1999 and far below the 15% average in 2002-11. It is likely that investment growth will fall a bit further this year. One reason is that even after rate cuts, China’s real cost of capital is still...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Oil At Its Ceiling, Not Floor

    With oil prices rebounding strongly this week, despite the non-event of last Friday’s meeting of the Organization Of Petroleum Exporting Countries, it seems appropriate to re-examine the case for cheaper oil that we have been presenting since late last year. Specifically, our view in December that US$50/bbl was more likely to be a ceiling than a floor for the Brent oil price in the long term has been contradicted by market actions of recent...

    2
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Making Sense Of Corporate China

    Like it or not, financial liberalization means that global portfolios will soon have to include far more Chinese stocks and bonds. Investors need to pay close attention to what they are buying.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q2 2015 - How To Invest In Shanghai Without Losing Your Shirt

    Investing in Chinese equities will soon no longer be optional. Doing so successfully is a challenging task, but not an impossible one.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Youku Tudou: Watch With Care

    Youku leads in China’s raucous online video market, but will struggle to stay independent thanks to government censorship and a business model combining the worst aspects of YouTube and Netflix.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Gome: A Second Life, From Behind Bars

    The once and perhaps future king of bricks and mortar retail shows how to come back from the dead, survive the online onslaught, and thrive while its founder serves a 14-year jail term.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Nu Skin: Life In The Gray Zone

    A multi-level marketing firm shows it is possible to survive while skirting the edges of Chinese commercial law.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Tingyi: Scale Over Margins

    Conventional wisdom says consumer-products firms do best to sacrifice volume for margins. China’s biggest instant-noodle maker proves otherwise.

    0
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