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E.g., 11-05-2021
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Diverging Fortunes Of The Two Chinas

    One of the most important facts about China’s current slowdown is how unevenly distributed it is. There is a huge and growing gap between different sectors and provinces; in economic terms there are effectively “two Chinas.” Understanding this disparity is key to assessing China’s growth prospects, financial risks and global impact.

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    Gavekal Research

    How Much Does China Really Matter?

    How much does China’s slowdown really matter to the rest of the world? At first this might sound like a silly question. After all, China is home to a fifth of humanity, it is the world’s second largest national economy and its second largest importer, and in recent years has contributed between a quarter and a third of global growth. What’s more, the recent volatility in China’s stock markets and exchange rate caused shockwaves around the world...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    From Empire Builders To Traders

    The new oil-market reality of abundant supplies and low prices is sapping the financial and political power of China’s state-owned oil companies. So they are reducing their capital spending and domestic output, and ramping up their oil trading operations—and shaking up markets in the process.

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    Gavekal Research

    Is The China Panic Abating?

    For the past six weeks, global markets have been in a China-centric panic, sparked partly by bad economic data, but mostly by policy bungling from China’s policymakers. Having spurred a huge expansion in equity margin debt, regulators turned tail in June and cracked down on the practice. As an equity market crash unfolded, policymakers took to swinging a big stick: price-keeping operations were tried, stock trading was halted and speculators...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Flailing State Of Enterprise Reform

    A decisive move on economic reform would be very helpful in demonstrating that China is still on the right track. Unfortunately the long-awaited plan for state-owned enterprise reform is not such a move. Instead it is an ungainly mishmash of bureaucratic compromises that sets no clear goals and is riven by internal contradictions.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Taking The Pulse Of The Construction Cycle

    China’s housing-driven industrial cycle is stuck in low gear, but has not worsened dramatically. What is getting worse are the parts of the economy that had been doing better earlier in the year: exports, consumer spending and finance. The result will be headline GDP growth that (finally) falls below 7% in the third quarter.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    No New Coal: Power Sector Crosses Green Energy Threshold

    The combination of structural shifts under way in the economy and new regulations mean that future growth in China’s electricity demand growth can be met entirely from clean energy sources. The implication is that over the coming years, China will no longer need to build new coal-fired power plants.

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    Gavekal Research

    Has The Asian Currency Collapse Run Its Course?

    The past four months have seen an unprecedented divergence in the performance of developed market and emerging market currencies, with Asian units getting sucked into the EM downdraft even though their manufacturing-heavy economies should, on paper, be beneficiaries of the commodity collapse. Or to be more specific the more than 10% decline in Asian currencies against the euro over the last four months has been a near two standard deviation...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Is The Bull Market Over? (II)

    Yesterday we examined the three big fears that—in the absence of any markedly negative news from the OECD economies—lie behind the recent equity market sell-off, and which have prompted many investors to ask “Is The Bull Market Over?”

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Debating The Data Denialists

    There are growing fears that China’s economic statistics are massively overstating growth, so rather than growing by 6-7%, China is now “really” growing by only 3-4%. These worries are overdone: Chinese statistics have problems, but they do provide a broadly accurate view of the growth trajectory.

    1
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    Gavekal Research

    Is The Bull Market Over? (I)

    Is the bull market in equities over? As our readers might imagine, this is a question we have been asked more than once over the past few weeks. Notwithstanding the bounce of the last two days, the simple fact that clients are wondering about the answer is troubling in itself. Their doubts are embodied by three ominous developments:

    1
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    Gavekal Research

    The RMB, The HKD And A Flood Of Cash

    If nothing else, yesterday’s announcement that China spent US$94bn of its foreign reserves in August to prevent the renminbi from falling against the US dollar should convince the doubters that China has no intention of being a mercantilist “currency warrior”. As a result, any bearish case against the renminbi should not rest on the government’s intentions—in spending its US$94bn, the People’s Bank of China has made it clear that it will hold a...

    3
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    Gavekal Research

    Termaillage And The Renminbi

    For years I have felt like a lone voice in the wilderness, monitoring central bank reserves as an important determining factor of what I loosely call “international liquidity”. Suddenly I’ve got company. In the last few weeks everyone has been focusing on the topic, and “experts” by the dozen have penned reports about it. Naturally, I’ve read everything that has passed across my screen, and—sad to say—I’m appalled by the results: an egregious...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Nationalist Style Of Economic Reform

    China’s leaders are not far-sighted planners calmly executing a long-term strategy, but politicians responding to events and seizing opportunities. Economic reform in China is not going in reverse, but the nationalist shift in politics means reform is scattershot and opportunistic—and that creates risks and increases volatility.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Goose Stepping Into Isolation

    China’s military parade to celebrate victory over Japan 70 years ago will be lapped up by a patriotic nation that revels in shows of national strength. But rather than winning it new friends, China’s military chest-thumping is only scaring its neighbors into the arms of the US. The parade reflects not strength but a chronic lack of self-confidence.

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    Gavekal Research

    The Four Horsemen Of The Apocalypse

    Markets are entering bear market territory and what vexes Charles and Louis is whether the root cause is a liquidity crunch, a solvency crisis or a deflationary bust. In this wide ranging chart book they explore the problem through the revelatory prophecy of four riders whose presence marked the coming of judgement day. We don’t mean to pile on the misery in what is shaping up as a tough week and the moderately good news is that the-end-of-times...

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    Gavekal Research

    The Three Options For Renminbi Policy

    Heavy intervention by the People’s Bank of China has restored stability to the exchange rate, but raised questions about its longer-term strategy. We think the central bank has three options: continue intervention to maintain stability; cease intervention and allow a sizable devaluation; scale back intervention and allow a gradual depreciation.

    2
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Bubbles, Busts And Regime Change

    Collapsing commodity prices, a deflating bubble on the Shanghai stock exchange, dodgy infrastructure financing schemes. It all sounds a lot like China in 2015, but it happens to be a description of the country in 1910—when China was on the brink of a revolution that would bring down the Qing dynasty.

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    Gavekal Research

    The Real Message From Oil

    Violent swings in oil prices are destabilizing economies and financial markets worldwide. When the oil price halved last year, from US$110 to US$55 a barrel, the cause was obvious: Saudi Arabia’s decision to increase its share of the global oil market by expanding production. But what accounts for the further plunge in oil prices in the last few weeks—to lows last seen in the immediate aftermath of the 2008 global financial crisis—and how will...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    What To Worry About, And What Not To In China

    The unexpected devaluation of the renminbi earlier this month focused international attention on the continuing slowdown in China and triggered increased worries about its problems. In this piece, we detail four areas where fears about economic fragility have been overstated, and four areas where investor concerns are justified.

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