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E.g., 18-05-2021
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    Gavekal Research

    The Gavekal Monthly: A Cloudy Currency Outlook

    The Gavekal Monthly outlines our highest conviction ideas and summarizes the key economic, market and thematic views held by the firm’s partners and analysts. This report is an attempt to answer a question that we are often asked, but find it hard to answer: "What does Gavekal think?".

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    Gavekal Research

    What Now For The Renminbi?

    It’s official: the IMF has confirmed that the renminbi will join the SDR currency basket. Now that China has achieved this goal, attention will turn to the renminbi’s exchange-rate outlook. The reality, however, is that SDR inclusion is largely irrelevant to the trajectory of the exchange rate; what happens to the US dollar will be the key.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Bringing The World To China's Doorstep

    Chinese consumers love global brands, but hate their high prices. So well-off Chinese have often shopped for them abroad rather than pay inflated domestic prices. These days, though, Chinese consumers can import foreign goods over the internet at much lower prices. This trend will wreak havoc on middlemen, but will also create new opportunities.

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    Gavekal Research

    No Savior On The New Silk Road

    Over the last year China has stepped up its efforts to build an informal empire in Asia. This “One Belt, One Road” initiative has the potential to boost regional development and strengthen China’s geopolitical heft. But in the shorter term, can Beijing’s grand plan absorb China’s industrial overcapacity and revive commodity demand? Sadly, no.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    A Less Distorted Mirror

    China’s stock markets reflect its economy as in a funhouse mirror: consumer and service sectors shrink to midget proportions, while finance and industry swell to giant size. The process of correcting these distortions speeded up in 2015 as industry slumped and services held steady. Progress will likely slow some in 2016, but the trend is clear.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Breaking Down The Services Cycle

    With China’s industrial sector in a deep slowdown, the services sector has been generating most of the good economic news in 2015. But there is no economic law that makes services immune to the business cycle. Services have their own ups and downs, and while that cycle has helped growth this year, it will provide less of a boost in 2016.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Benefits Of Membership

    The renminbi’s path to becoming the fifth sovereign currency in the SDR is now clear, with IMF chief Christine Lagarde endorsing the move on Friday. This is a diplomatic coup for China and a victory for its central bank. But we do not see SDR inclusion as a game-changer for capital flows into China, though they will continue to rise.

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    Gavekal Research

    A Happy Apologist

    At Gavekal the conversation with clients never stops and from time to time we like to offer up a taste of debates that strike us as interesting. Louis got into just such a discussion earlier this week with one of our smarter, free-market embracing US clients. The topic of discussion was China and why Louis is such an apologist for the Chinese Communist Party when he clearly has little time for governments meddling with markets elsewhere?

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Dead Cat Bounce Or Tiger’s Leap?

    With China’s stock market and currency both up from their lows, the “stabilization trade” looks to be firmly in effect. But while this stabilization is definitely warranted, it is mostly markets correcting their over-reaction to the August currency move. It has little to do with any broader stabilization of the real economy, which is still weak.

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    Gavekal Research

    The Limits Of Xi Jinping’s Grand Plan

    As China’s growth slowdown deepens, making even the government’s reduced growth target of 6.5% a year for the rest of this decade look less and less realistic, policymakers are increasingly pinning their hopes on Beijing’s much-touted “Belt and Road Initiative”. Not only do they hope that the plan to build new trading networks across Central Asia and the Indian Ocean will boost China’s flagging exports, but that the demand for commodities and...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Chinese Dream (I): The Empire Strikes Back

    Xi Jinping’s project of national rejuvenation needs to be taken seriously, with an understanding of the history from which it springs.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Never-Ending Slowdown

    Xi Jinping’s ambition to extend China’s global influence is obvious. Whether he can sustain the long-run economic growth needed to finance that ambition is less clear.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Chinese Dream (II): Great Leap Outward Along The New Silk Road

    The Belt-and-Road Initiative promises an infrastructure bonanza for Asia’s least-connected regions. How much it will extend China’s political influence is an open question.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Chinese Dream (III): Should We Fear It?

    As a ‘peace-loving’ China flaunts its military, political and economic might, Asia and the US puzzle over how to respond.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Financing China’s Global Dreams

    Beijing has promised to put a lot of money to work building infrastructure across Eurasia. But the actual amount of finance China is likely to mobilize in the next several years is much less than the extravagant headline figures. The biggest constraint on its ambitions to revive is not money, but finding viable projects are to finance.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    China And Russia: Locked In Reluctant Embrace

    China’s economic activity is gradually reducing Russian influence in Central Asia. Despite that, shared authoritarian values keep the two countries closely aligned on many issues.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Instead Of A Balance Of Power, Create Better Rules Of The Game

    Critiques of Obama’s ‘rebalance to Asia’ miss the point. It is not about adjusting the balance of power in Asia, but about refining the rules of the international order that China is inexorably entering.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    How Should The US Respond To China’s Rise?

    The longstanding US approach to a rising China—economic engagement and military balancing—no longer works. More muscular balancing, and smarter engagement, is now required.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Two Cheers For Hypocrisy

    Are the world’s two biggest economies headed for a “Thucydides trap,” in which China’s determination to carve out a sphere of influence in Asia provokes an all-out effort by the US to maintain its primacy in the Pacific?

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ: China Reshapes Asia

    In the last two years China has made a bold push to expand its influence in Asia, using both the carrot of well-funded infrastructure diplomacy and the stick of forceful assertion of territorial claims in the South and East China Seas. What explains this newly assertive foreign policy, and what are its effects likely to be? This special issue of the China Economic Quarterly tries to answer these questions.

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