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E.g., 05-07-2020
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    Gavekal Research

    Destroying The Economy To Save It

    Remember the American military officer in Vietnam who explained US tactics by saying “it became necessary to destroy the town to save it?” Well in the not too distant future, we may have to accept that our economic policymakers have adopted the same tactics in the battle against the Covid-19 pandemic.

    3
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    A New Stage In The Monetary Cycle

    While the People’s Bank of China remains more conservative than other global central banks, it is now clearly signaling to the market that liquidity will remain loose for the foreseeable future. This means low interest rates and, according to Wei, favorable conditions for a Chinese government bond rally.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Webinar: Looking Through The Lockdowns

    Andrew and Rosealea discussed China’s slow return to normal, the state of the property and construction sector, and warned of the global demand shock China will face due to Covid-19. Will outlined his view on asset allocation in light of the shock to the US economy and the asset price adjustments that have taken place so far.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Rearranging The Deckchairs For Profit

    When everything is falling apart around you, the urge to do something—anything—becomes irresistible. A good solution is to start rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic. It may not change the bigger picture, but it keeps you busy and does no harm in the longer term. In this spirit, allow me to suggest a little rearrangement that should do no harm, and could even be very profitable.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Waiting For Godot (21st Century Edition)

    For years, investors have been waiting for China’s massive accumulation of debt to lead to a “Minsky moment”. Instead, in the Covid-19 crisis it is Western central banks that are blowing out their balance sheets in a desperate attempt to stabilize financial markets and their economies—while Chinese government bonds have proved “anti-fragile”.

    2
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Job Market Shock Continues

    The lockdown to control Covid-19 has already cost millions of China’s migrant workers a month or more of lost wages. But the shock to employment is not over: many service businesses are not back to normal, and manufacturers face plunging export orders. In this piece, Ernan analyzes the multiple pressures on China’s job market in 2020.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Breaking Down An International Liquidity Crisis

    These are hard times for the global system as big economies are effectively shuttered and risk appetite craters. The US dollar has surged and many leveraged countries face trouble servicing their debts. As these factors become self-reinforcing, Charles thinks it is worth standing back to assess what is causing what. He does this by explaining the dynamics of an international liquidity crisis and suggests specific investment strategies to handle...

    1
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    Gavekal Research

    The Truth In Trump’s Tweets

    Oil market pundits were quick to dismiss Donald Trump’s tweeted claim Thursday that Saudi Arabia and Russia are ready to agree crude production cuts of 10-15mn bpd as “absurd” and “incredible”. But oil production cuts of the magnitude flagged by Trump are certainly in the pipeline—whether as the result of a new Opec+ agreement or not.

    1
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Getting Out Of Lockdown

    China is starting to get out of its strict Covid-19 lockdown, but its economy will not get fully back to normal until the outbreaks in other countries also get under control. In this piece, Andrew and the team dig into the data to piece together the economy’s trajectory for March and April: a narrowing decline rather than a fast rebound.

    5
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    Gavekal Research

    Strategy Monthly: Lockdowns And Lost Output

    Markets have been upended by the twin uncertainty of Covid-19’s rapacious spread and the economic effects of stopping it. Massive policy responses have convinced investors that a V-shaped recovery is possible, but this is far from certain. As the outbreak in Europe and the US hits its peak phase over the next month, markets will swing on the timing of any proposed exit from lockdowns.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Who Will Win The War On Covid-19?

    In recent weeks leaders around the world have deployed all the rhetoric of wartime to declare hostilities against Covid-19. Louis examines which, if any, of the three major global powers—the US, Europe and China—is likely to emerge from the war a relative “winner”, and draws the appropriate investment conclusions.

    11
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    Gavekal Research

    Chinese Equities As A Safe Haven

    Chinese equities are likely to outperform in the short term as the global outbreak worsens and China adds more detail to its latest set of stimulus measures announced on Friday. However, once the outbreak shows signs of peaking in the US and Europe, Thomas argues that China is expected to return to its status as a relative underperformer.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Too Early To Buy Equities, But Time To Sell Dollars

    After the biggest weekly gain in the Dow and with the US government having just approved the biggest-ever fiscal stimulus, how should investors react? While unrepentantly bullish in the long term, Anatole still believes that it is too early to buy equities. But for two other asset classes conditions do seem to be more propitious to call a bottom.

    3
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    Gavekal Research

    What You See, And What You Don’t

    In economics there is what you see and what you don’t see, and “there is no such thing as a free lunch.” As the world economy suffers a spasm the likes of which has rarely been seen in peacetime, it may help to go back to first principles to figure out what we are not seeing about this crisis, and who is going to end up paying for it.

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    How Long For The Costly Cure?

    Is the cure worse than the disease? This question is already being asked about the economic lockdowns being imposed in response to Covid-19. It will be asked a lot more in the coming weeks as the economic pain gets worse. The short answer is that the cure is costly, but needed; and well-designed policies can enable a transition to a much lower-cost approach by mid-May if not earlier.

    7
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Webinar: China's Recovery From Covid-19 Lockdown

    At Wednesday's webinar, Andrew Batson, Ernan Cui, Thomas Gatley and Wei He discussed how China is recovering from the lockdown imposed to deal with the Covid-19 outbreak, and the outlook for the economy.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Coming Collapse Of Exports

    As other economies shut down to contain their outbreaks, China’s hopes of a V-shaped growth rebound are evaporating. Thomas explains how the ensuing collapse in Chinese exports could result in a 4-8pp drop in GDP growth for Q2, offsetting any domestic recovery and pressuring policymakers to ramp up economic assistance.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Great Fiscal Role Reversal

    In the global financial crisis of 2008, China defied economic orthodoxy with its huge debt-financed stimulus. In the coronavirus crisis of 2020, by contrast, it is the US, UK and other Western countries that are throwing the fiscal rulebook out the window. In this piece, Andrew explains what’s behind this surprising role reversal.

    7
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    Gavekal Research

    Four Baskets For Four Quadrants

    As investors survey the shattered remnants of the past decade’s bull market, they can reasonably assume that the winners of the future will not be those who dominated in the last decade. Louis applies the Gavekal Four Quadrants framework to address the question of which asset class will emerge victorious in a new macro environment.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Lockdowns Loom; What’s The Exit Strategy?

    We are heading into another difficult week. Covid-19 case numbers and fatalities outside China continue to grow rapidly. Social lockdowns are spreading to more US states and European countries. In the short run, fiscal support is on the way. Longer term, governments will have to start asking the uncomfortable question of when the economic pain outweighs the public health gain.

    1
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