E.g., 20-10-2020
E.g., 20-10-2020
We have found 3741 results.
View by: Grid List
Sort by: Relevancy Date
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Kindling And The Fire

    Inflation in the key Asian city-states of Hong Kong and Singapore is dangerously resilient: Hong Kong’s CPI reading jumped to 6.1% in January, and Singapore’s CPI has remained well above 5% for several months. This comes as both cities have spent several years building the monetary and fiscal equivalent of a pile of kindling. Recently, the Fed and ECB have been playing with matches. We should not be surprised that the kindling has started to...

    3
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Liquidity Boost For Chinese Equities

    Last week we noted that domestic Chinese A-shares have lagged their Hong Kong listed H-shares counterparts because H-shares reflected an expectation of Chinese policy easing, while A-shares reflected the present reality that mainland liquidity remains fairly tight (see The China A vs H Share Gap Widens). That may now change, thanks to the 50bp cut in the bank reserve requirement ratio announced over the weekend by the People’s Bank of China (PBC...

    4
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    A Checkup On Asia's 'Building Craze'

    Asia’s emerging economies may spend US$8trn on infrastructure before this decade is out, if they follow the ADB’s recommendations. That is, obviously, a lot of money: it is bit more than the total pre-tax corporate profits earned by US companies in the past ten years (US$7.6trn, based on the flow of funds data); and a lot more than estimated annual gross domestic savings in Asian emerging markets of US$5trn. Even big-spender China took about a...

    2
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek - Monetary Easing Counters Pressure From Bank Deposits

    [TABLE="class: grid, width: 614"]

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Another Round Behind Achilles’ Chariot?

    Most investors that we have met in recent months tell us that they feel like Hector, being dragged around and around on the back of Achilles' chariot. And to be sure, the past few quarters have been one long series of sharp rallies (as we have just experienced), punctuated by sharp sell-offs that bring us back just where we started. Behind this constant to and fro lies a simple reality, namely that markets are made at the margin. And lately...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Problem Of Chinese Land Reform

    In December, war erupted on the streets of Wukan, a fishing village in Guangdong province. The spark was the death in police custody of a village representative who was negotiating with local authorities for compensation for lost farmland. Local farmers chased all officials and police out of the village, blockaded roads, and armed themselves with steel-tipped bamboo spears. In what foreign reporters dubbed the “Siege of Wukan,” the local...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Battle Over Land Policy In China

    As Chinese property prices fall, tensions are rising between cash-strapped local governments that want to pump up the market and a central government determined to preserve social stability by keeping a lid on housing costs. So far Beijing is winning. But it cannot ignore for much longer the local-government budget debacle that its housing policy risks creating.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Where The Rubber Meets The Road

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Coal: Once And Future King

    In China’s energy picture, coal—not oil—is king. China relies on coal for 71% of total primary energy use, compared to 23% for the US and Japan and 15% for Europe. China is the world’s biggest coal consumer, by a wide margin (3.8 bn tons burned in 2011), and has surpassed Japan to become the world’s biggest coal importer, accounting for 17% of global seaborne coal shipments.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Battle Over Land Policy in China

    As Chinese property prices fall, tensions are rising between cash-strapped local governments that want to pump up the market and a central government determined to preserve social stability by keeping a lid on housing costs. So far Beijing is winning. But it cannot ignore for much longer the local-government budget debacle that its housing policy risks creating.

    2
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The China A- vs. H-Share Gap Widens

    Over the past four months Chinese companies’ Hong Kong listed H-shares have been on a tear, but their domestic A-shares have lagged. Since last December 1 H-shares have risen 20% while A-shares have been flat. A-shares have done better since the beginning of the year but have still risen only half as much as their Hong Kong counterparts. This discrepancy arises from the differing liquidity environments of the two markets. Hong Kong reflects...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek - Inflation Pressure Will Be Modest In 2012

    [TABLE="class: grid, width: 614"]

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Chinese New Year Effect on Data

    The first driblets of economic data from China in January are not encouraging: inflation bounced back up while electricity production, auto production and exports all fell. Is the hard landing upon us? Not so fast. Most of the data were seriously distorted by a lunar new year effect, and are likely to bounce back to less scary levels in February. Only the combined January-February data will give an accurate picture of just how much the Chinese...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    China Macro Chartbook Feb 2012 - Easy Does It

    China’s economic data continues to support the soft-landing scenario: investment, industrial production, and GDP are trending downward but at a gentle not a violent pace. Inflation is also heading down despite an uptick in January resulting from seasonal spike in food purchases ahead of the lunar new year. The construction sector is one area of potential weakness, as the government seems determined to keep up its restrictive policies on high-end...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Knives Come Out In China

    This is a big year for power transitions: new leaders will be installed in four of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council (the US, China, France and Russia). The transfer of power will be murkiest in China, where a secretive Communist Party process will determine the composition of the next nine-member Politburo Standing Committee (PSC), effectively the nation’s ruling council. And since China’s political elite bear more than a...

    4
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Why Dim Sum Bonds Matter

    4
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Company Visit to Shenzhen International

    One way to play the rising cost of manufacturing in China would be to effectively short the low value-added manufacturers in the richer coastal areas, and go long the real estate firms that will have the first crack at redeveloping vacated factories into office buildings, malls or residences. This is because the lower value-added manufacturers – the ones that make running shoes, clothes, tools, simple chemicals and electronics, etc – are in many...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek - More Infrastructure Projects On The Way

    [INDENT=2]

    2
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    China's Coal Imports Wavering But Unbowed

    [LEFT]

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Can China Reverse Rising Inequality?

    China’s government has been hugely successful at raising incomes over the past three decades, but this may no longer be good enough. Inequality is on display every day in the streets of Beijing: the orange Lamborghinis of the nouveau riche share the road with farmers’ horse-drawn carts. The debate over the fairness and consequences of this new-found wealth is intense. We recently attended a seminar hosted by the Chinese Academy of Social...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    A Means To Push For Reform?

    Today newspaper readers in Hong Kong were subjected to front-page scare headlines about ominous plans for Shanghai to displace HK as China’s key international financial center. The story comes amid rising cross-border social tensions, as reflected in a heated exchange between Hongkongers and Mainland tourists that recently went viral. In fact, Shanghai’s ambitious new growth targets for financial services have nothing to do with Hong Kong-China...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Breaking the Political Cycle

    Chinese politics are a black box. Yet while the inner workings of the Communist Party are hidden from view, their effects on the real world are not. There has usually been a close relationship between China’s economic growth and the Party’s five-year cycles of political succession. As the chart below shows, China’s GDP growth tends to accelerate in the year a Party Congress is held, and new leaders are chosen, and then decelerate.

    1
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    China's Growth Still on the Glide Path

    The latest batch of data from China confirms both that the economy is steadily slowing and that the feared “hard landing” remains elusive. The extent of the slowdown is so far less than we and most others expected: official GDP growth was 8.9% YoY in Q4, barely lower than the 9.1% in Q3. The slowdown was however a bit more obvious in the NBS’ estimate of QoQ growth, which slowed to an annualized 8.2% in Q4 from 9.5% in Q3. Full year growth came...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    China Slowing, But No Hard Landing in Sight

    The latest batch of Chinese data confirms what has long been obvious: the economy is steadily slowing, but the “hard landing” remains ever-elusive. Indeed, official GDP growth of +8.9% YoY in 4Q11 was barely lower than the +9.1% recorded in 3Q11. The slowdown was, however, a bit more obvious in the estimate of QoQ growth, which slowed to an annualized +8.2% in Q411 from +9.5% in 3Q11. Finally, for the full year, growth came in at +9.2% YoY...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Robot Workers in the Wild East

    The cheap labor “edge” that China has offered over the last decade has been eroding amid annual double-digit wage increases. Add to this the negative PR associated with factory labor conditions (following last year’s “suicide” drama, Foxconn started this year with 150 workers threatening to throw themselves off a building for a +20% wage raise!), and it would seem manufacturers are dreaming of the day when they can have robots running their...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek - Capital Outflows and Commodity Prices

    [TABLE="class: grid, width: 614"]

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Value in Chinese Property Developer Bonds

    After two years of clampdown, a -6% fall (-15% in big cities) in real estate prices from the peak and a significant slowdown in transactions growth last year, Chinese property developers are probably thinking it is time the government gave them a break. However Li Keqiang, who is likely to replace Wen Jiabao as the next Premier, has a vital interest in staying firm with the new housing policy. China’s campaign to provide unprecedented quantities...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Hot Money Outflows from China?

    For years it was fashionable to bemoan the scourge of “hot money” inflows into China. Now, with China’s foreign exchange reserves registering falls in three of the last four months, it is fashionable to talk about “hot money” flowing out of China. Another bit of evidence for the coming collapse of China? Hardly.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Taiwan's Sideshow Elections

    Over the past year Taiwanese stocks have fallen -22%, the Taiwan Dollar is down -3%, and export growth has slowed from +20% to near zero. Will Saturday elections stop the rot? No, but regardless of who wins, investors should find some interesting tactical opportunities.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Industry's Pulse Slackens

    China’s industrial sector still looks healthy, but is clearly experiencing a cyclical slowdown, the latest survey data show. Longer term indicators look positive: trend profit growth, while not as rapid as headline figures suggest, was still pretty fast in 2011. And profit margins are stable at historic levels, giving the lie to predictions of huge excess capacity. However, profit growth has slowed significantly since August, and inventories are...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Year of the Flying Dragon for China Shares?

    In 2009, we got very excited about the prospects for financial reform in China, because we believed that in the aftermath of its massive stimulus program, Beijing would have no choice but to make substantial improvements in capital efficiency to support long-term economic growth. For the next two years, we were disappointed by the glacial pace of reforms. Now, however, the pace of financial reform is picking up noticeably, thanks to new and more...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    China's Incoherent Rare Earth Policy

    China Policy Watch: Rocky road for China Inc(oherent)

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek - SOE Profits Heading Down

    [TABLE="class: grid, width: 614"]

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Great Year for Macau Casino Stocks

    Macau casino stocks were some of the best-performing Asian equity sectors last year, topped only by Korean autos. This as the former Portuguese colony’s recently released gaming numbers showed a +42%YoY increase for the full year in 2011 to US$32.5bn, more than five times the amount that gamblers spent in Las Vegas in 2011.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Daily - How Will China Respond to the Cyclical Slowdown?

    In recent weeks we have laid out a scenario under which both developed and emerging markets fare well in the first half of 2012, buoyed by a combination of stronger-than-expected economic performance in the US, a massive liquidity boost from the Fed and ECB, and weaker inflation in Asia which should lead to some policy loosening. This raises the question of what we can expect out of China: will the world's biggest single contributor to...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Daily - Will 2012 Be Better for Asian Assets?

    For those of us based here in Hong Kong, 2011 was a year that saw soaring office rents, restaurants booked out, taxis hard to hail, airplanes and subway trains packed, and even bouncer-controlled queues at designer handbag shops. In other words, from the ground, it felt very much like a roaring bull market. The problem for investors, however, is that it did not trade like one. In fact, Asia underperformed in nearly all categories; stocks sold...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Fathom China

    Profile: Chinese Reverse Mergers: Ten Questions About Dodgy Deals

    Chinese reverse mergers: Ten questions about dodgy deals

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Daily - The Not-So-Strange Stability of Communist Regimes

    Why do repressive regimes stick around for so long? And when they finally fail, why do they fail? Earlier this year we saw protests which toppled long-standing dictatorships in Tunisia in Egypt in a matter of weeks, and an insurrection that ended Muammar Qaddafi’s hold on Libya in a few months. Stable on the surface, it turns out these autocracies were built on foundations as sandy as the deserts they governed.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Europe's Drag on North Asian Exports

    A lot of ink has been spilt trying to analyze the impact of the ongoing EMU crisis with respect to Asian funding needs—after all, a significant share of Asia’s trade financing (USD) comes from European banks (see The Global Funding Environment and Asia). By contrast, there seems to have been less focus on what Euro crisis could mean for Asia’s export industry. And the signs here are not encouraging: Overall, developed world leading indicators...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    A Halt to RMB Appreciation? by Joyce Poon

    In China, movements in the value of the currency is limited to a band of 0.5% above or below the RMB/USD rate set daily by the PBoC. In the past couple of weeks, investors have pushed the currency to the top (weak side) of this daily trading band—i.e., the market is expecting some depreciation of the RMB. The last time the market consistently pushed for a weaker RMB was in late 2008, when Beijing decided to essentially re-peg the RMB to the...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    20 Years of Strong Growth in China

    Last week Arthur attended a presentation by Justin Yifu Lin, the chief economist at the World Bank. Lin was a key advisor on the Hu/Wen policies of addressing income inequality. He is heading back to Peking University next year where presumably he will regain some of his policy influence. So his views are worth attending to. As always, Lin was optimistic about China’s long-run growth potential, but he echoed our conviction that financial sector...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Daily - China's Property Market and the Prophets of Doom

    With the prophets of doom once again circling around China's "property bubble," predicting a collapse in house prices and subsequent economic Armageddon, Draganomics took special care to perform an exhaustive review of the data in its latest China Real Estate and Construction Market Review, published yesterday. The data shows that sales and prices of commercial housing are falling, and will continue to fall at least through mid-...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Construction Quarterly - Q4 2011

    Summary and outlook:

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Daily - What Are A-Shares Telling Us About China's Monetary Policy?

    Traditionally, in a telling reflection of China’s financial insularity, there is a weak correlation between the country’s domestically listed A-shares and overseas listed shares (red chips, H shares, etc). However as Chinese demand becomes more and more crucial both for regional and global economic health, one might expect that, over time, overseas listed Chinese shares will start trading more in line with their domestic brethren. With this...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek - Chinese Energy Demand and Durban

    DragonWeek: An opinionated weekly guide to China's economic news

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    What Is To Be Done? China's Debt Challenge

    On a Sunday evening in November 2008, China’s government delivered a surprise announcement to a world reeling from financial crisis. It pledged to spend Rmb4 trillion on a stimulus plan, three times as much money as the US government had at that point promised. Yet as later became clear, China’s real contribution was not a fiscal stimulus at all. Rather, it was an enormous surge in credit from the state-owned banking system, allowing local...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Daily - China's Policy Dilemma

    China is likely to report a sharply lower CPI number tomorrow: around +4.5% YoY for November, down from October's +5.5%, which is also the average figure for the past 12 months. Ordinarily this would be excellent news, but in reality it underscores the very difficult bind that Chinese policymakers have got themselves into. This bind arises first from a conflict between structural and cyclical trends, which are moving in opposite directions...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    My Visit to a Manufacturing Firm in Shanghai

    The 28 year-old Eric Li, Import and Export Department Manager at Shanghai YongLi Belting Company, pulls up at my hotel in his new Volvo station wagon. My hotel is on the way to the Yongli factory from his apartment near Xintiandi—one of Shanghai’s priciest locales. Eric wears jeans, a blue pullover, sneakers and a work-belt; he looks like any other Chinese factory worker except for the brand-name aviator sunglasses he wears for driving. He was...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    China Economic Quarterly December 2011 - Urban China

    China Economic Quarterly Q4 2011: Urban China

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q4 2011 - Urban China - Migrants and Consumption

    Urban consumption: the migrant solution?

    0
Show me: results