E.g., 25-09-2020
E.g., 25-09-2020
We have found 3724 results.
View by: Grid List
Sort by: Relevancy Date
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    In Laos, All Roads Lead To China

    Two thousand years ago, in the days of the Roman Empire, it was said that “All roads lead to Rome.” Rome’s might was built on the back of metaled roads constructed by an army of 180,000 legionnaires, who pushed the expansion of the empire to its geographic limits. China’s expansion over its modern-day borders is primarily economic, not military. But as China’s massive domestic road-building program extends over its borders into Southeast and...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    In Laos, All Roads Lead To China

    Two thousand years ago, in the days of the Roman Empire, it was said that “All roads lead to Rome.” Rome’s might was built on the back of metaled roads constructed by an army of 180,000 legionnaires, who pushed the expansion of the empire to its geographic limits. China’s expansion over its modern-day borders is primarily economic, not military. But as China’s massive domestic road-building program extends over its borders into Southeast and...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    No Bridgehead Too Far In China’s Expanding Empire

    For centuries, China’s borders expanded and contracted as dynasties rose and fell. With its star in the ascendant, the Chinese empire is expanding once more. This expansion is based on economic power—trade and investment—not military conquest. But it will nevertheless reshape the geopolitics of Asia.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    No Bridgehead Too Far In China’s Expanding Empire

    For centuries, China’s borders expanded and contracted as dynasties rose and fell. With its star in the ascendant, the Chinese empire is expanding once more. This expansion is based on economic power—trade and investment—not military conquest. But it will nevertheless reshape the geopolitics of Asia.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    London Seminar April 2014 - Anatole, Arthur, Louis & Francois

    We held our spring seminar in London on April 2, with Anatole, Arthur, Louis and Francois offering their take on the state of the world economy and financial markets. Audio recordings of their discussions are available below:

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    China: Support Not Stimulus

    Last night China's State Council unveiled a plan to support growth through additional spending on railways and low cost housing, and via tax relief for small businesses. The offshore market leapt on the news as a signal of changing policy direction. Following recent economic data that appeared to undermine Premier Li Keqiang’s chances of achieving his declared goal of 7.5% growth this year, there were rising expectations for some sort of...

    1
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Growth & Markets Monthly (April 2014)

    Please find the latest monthly review of our models and indicators. In this edition we note two important changes. First, our growth indicators have taken a turn for the worse, and second our indicators on risk appetite have deteriorated. Since we have seen no significant rises in market spreads, this is probably more a sign of a slightly overextended rally, then a real erosion of financial conditions. Could the rally in risk assets be about to...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Bet On Europe Vs The US-EM Axis

    Following decades of European economic integration, euro coins and notes were introduced with great fanfare in January 2002. Equity investors barely noticed as their attention was focused on the emerging trans-Pacific economic relationship between the US and China. Initially, this axis relied on the buying power of the US consumer and the production capabilities of the Chinese factory lands. But as the decade wore on this simplified “ChinAmerica...

    4
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    A Good Scalping In Hong Kong

    Massive rains and golf-balls sized hail pelted Hong Kong this weekend, but the weather did not stop the throngs from showing up and cheering on the annual Rugby Sevens. Yet surely it was a tough year for the scalpers, who gather outside the stadium on game days to sell coveted tickets at huge mark-ups to official prices. The rain and dark skies must have given the buyers the upper hand in this year’s price negotiations.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Unexpected Return Of State Enterprise Reform

    Reforming China’s vast array of state-owned enterprises is once again on the government’s agenda, after a decade of drift. This development has caught many observers by surprise, since it runs against the conventional wisdom that SOEs are entrenched vested interests able to easily block change. In this chartbook, Andrew explains how SOEs’ failures opened the door for a new round of reform, how local governments are now taking the lead—and what...

    3
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    China's Shale Gas Getting Bubblier

    A year and a half ago, China’s nascent shale sector looked like so much sound and fury, signifying nothing. The country’s shale potential is widely regarded as the largest in the world. But two rounds of auctions for exploration licenses had largely fallen flat—with conspicuous bids by real estate companies and other firms with no oil and gas experience. State controlled downstream prices, meanwhile, made Chinese shale look like a money-losing...

    2
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    5C Asia: Cyclical Prospects Favor India Over Indonesia - Udith Sikand & Joyce Poon

    Differences in the way macroeconomic adjustment has affected Brazil, India, Indonesia, South Africa and Turkey have shown that lumping disparate economies together with tags like the “Fragile Five”, “BRICS” or “MINT” does little to illuminate the risk-reward trade-off for EM investors.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    5C China: Identity Of Mystery Gold Buyer Revealed!

    A few hundred tons of gold went missing, statistically speaking, in China last year. According to the China Gold Association, Chinese consumers purchased 1,176 tons of gold in 2013, overtaking Indians as the world’s largest buyers of gold. But the supply of gold to China last year seems to have been much bigger than even that large figure: domestic gold mines produced 428 tons, scrap recycling another 126 tons, and imports, according to...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Ammunition Locker Looks Bare

    No sooner had Chinese Premier Li Keqiang declared his goal of 7.5% GDP growth this year than economic data began to undermine his chances of achieving it. The weak readings from most indicators for January and February point were much worse than expectations, and on our models are consistent with GDP growth of 7.2% for the first quarter of 2014—a sharp slowdown from the 7.7% pace in the fourth quarter of 2013. While we can reasonably expect the...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    What Happened To The Asia Beta-Bounce?

    Identifying an Asian upturn or downturn used to be straight forward. One just had to look at cyclical indicators in the developed economies, because Asia would be sure to follow. Yet the bounce in Asian exports promised by recent business surveys in the West has failed to materialize. China, Korea, Indonesia, Thailand—these and other Asian countries have released disappointing trade data so far this year. This is worrisome on a number of levels...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    One Last Flicker Before The Japan Trade Goes Out

    Most of us at Gavekal have been enthusiastic devotees of Abenomics since late 2012. But Anatole suddenly showed his true Keynesian colors by turning negative on Japan in September, when Prime Minister Shinzo Abe announced his decision to implement a controversial fiscal tightening planned by the Ministry of Finance (MoF) from April 2014. And indeed, the Nikkei has underperformed the S&P 500 by 15% since the consumption tax was announced on...

    2
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Due Like Yesterday's Bills

    Following the 2008 global financial shock, almost every major government deployed massive fiscal and monetary firepower to prevent another Great Depression. One government, China (which was also still recovering from the devastating Gansu/Sichuan earthquake) did so more than most, compressing a five-year plan worth of rail, canal and motorway construction into just a couple of years. Of course, sending a large amount of public money down a...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Consumers Repaint The Industrial Landscape

    The stereotypical image of China’s industrial landscape includes more coal mines than it does condiments or cars. But in 2013, the manufacturing of consumer goods contributed more to the nation’s economy than the heavy industrial sector. While the largest domestic IPO so far this year was of Shaanxi Coal Industry Co., the second-ranked was of Foshan Haitian Flavoring & Food Co.—the country’s biggest soy sauce manufacturer, and arguably now a...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Sword Is The Axis Of History

    As Anatole recently argued, we can all breathe a sigh of relief that the tussle over the Crimea has likely been resolved without serious bloodshed and at minimal cost (see All Over Bar The Annexation). But in the longer term it is clear that these events may cast a long shadow over international relations for years to come. Indeed, as British politician Ernest Bevin famously said, “don't open this Pandora’s box, it is full of Trojan horses...

    2
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Is Iron Ore Becoming The New Copper?

    One of the hoariest of market clichés is that copper is “the metal with a PhD in economics” since its demand is supposedly closely related to real economic activity. This saying should produce a bit of a chuckle for those familiar with Chinese commodity markets, where copper is heavily used as collateral for financing. Because of this practice, copper shipments and prices often have no relationship whatsoever with economic fundamentals. In...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Urbanization 2.0

    China’s cities are a mess. The urbanization policies of the past decade encouraged rapid urban sprawl and wasteful investment, funded by large debts and pushing farmers off their land. Simultaneously, millions of rural migrants have been blocked from settling permanently. Pressure has been building for a comprehensive approach to these interlinked problems of debt, planning, land policy and social inequity. After internal wrangling and repeated...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    More Freedom For The Renminbi

    China’s weekend announcement that it will double the permitted daily trading range of the renminbi, to plus or minus 2% around the daily fixing, is its latest signal that market forces will be playing a greater role in the nation’s economy. It should also finally put paid to the incorrect but widespread view that China has begun a steady devaluation of its currency in a desperate attempt to regain export competitiveness. The 1.5% fall in the...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    5C Overview: A New China Rises From The Concrete

    The recent weakness of the renminbi has stirred up new doubts about China’s economic trajectory. We are repeatedly asked how China’s economic model—based as it is on bank-financed infrastructure spending—can be sustainable. The answer is that it is not; and that China will need to see strong labor and capital productivity gains in order to keep the show on the road over the coming years. Which brings us back to French theorist Frederic Bastiat’s...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    5C China: Is Iron Ore Becoming The New Copper?

    One of the hoariest of market clichés is that copper is “the metal with a PhD in economics” since its demand is supposedly closely related to real economic activity. This saying should produce a bit of a chuckle for those familiar with Chinese commodity markets, where copper is heavily used as collateral for financing. Because of this practice, copper shipments and prices often have no relationship whatsoever with economic fundamentals. In...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    ‘Tis The Season For China To Disappoint

    The trickle of weak economic data from China has turned into a flood, with yesterday’s publication of official readings of industrial output, investment and retail sales that were uniformly below market expectations. As a result, investors are increasingly doubtful of the ability of heavily indebted Chinese firms to survive the combination of weaker growth and tighter credit. Premier Li Keqiang, by coincidence giving his annual press conference...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ: China And Japan

    In this issue, we focus on the increasingly tense relationship between China and Japan. Frictions over disputed islands in the East China Sea have stalled bilateral trade and driven the confidence of Japanese businesses in China to the lowest level ever. China's increasing assertiveness, and Japan's election of strongly nationalist leader Shinzo Abe, have sparked worries over a damaging Sino-Japanese conflict. Yet the news is not all...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Neither Boom Nor Bust For Housing

    The pattern has become all too predictable: when Chinese house prices rise, the media cries bubble. When prices slow, we are warned of a crash. In recent weeks the crash warnings have been piling up, as housing sales and price growth have decelerated. The more boring truth is that China’s housing market has its cyclical ups and downs. The year 2014 is shaping up to be cooler than the surprisingly torrid 2013. But collapse is not on the horizon,...

    2
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    It's All Good In America, And All Bad In China

    “By three methods we may learn wisdom: First by reflection, which is noblest. Second, by imitation, which is easiest. And third by experience, which is the bitterest.” - Confucius.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Getting Serious About Fiscal Policy

    This week’s session of the National People’s Congress is the first major public presentation of Chinese government policies since the leadership unveiled a major reform package last November. As such it provides an occasion to assess how much the government is following through on those plans. And Premier Li Keqiang did indeed reinforce market-friendly themes by pledging further steps on deregulating the economy and supporting private-sector...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    RMB Limbo: How Low Can It Go?

    As we argued last week, the recent depreciation of the Chinese currency was engineered by the central bank—not as a competitive devaluation, but rather to rout speculators making one-way bets on renminbi appreciation. The People’s Bank of China (PBC) acted after January saw roughly US$73bn in net capital inflows, the biggest deluge of inward flows in 12 months. The question now, after a 1.4% fall in the renminbi in 10 trading days (a bigger fall...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    How To Fix China’s State Sector

    The government’s own data on SOEs show that neither of its two principal priorities for the state sector is now being achieved: SOE assets are not, in fact, being concentrated in the sectors the government wants; and the returns on SOE assets have sharply deteriorated. As a result, a significant part of the Chinese economy is underperforming. This creates a drag on economic output at a time when many other changes—an aging population, the...

    2
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    5C China: Factory Workers' Fairytale

    Once upon a time, Chinese bosses lived in a fairytale world populated by an endless supply of cheap migrant labor. For two decades, nominal GDP growth outpaced migrant wage growth, as employers squeezed their migrant workforce dry. But around five years ago, the labor supply/demand dynamic flipped and migrant wages started to rise. As any reader of fairy tales knows, wicked bosses always meet their comeuppance in the end.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q1 2014 - Data

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q1 2014 - Leadership, urbanization, local debt

    Xi’s Style: Checks Without Balances, Policies Without Politics

    1
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q1 2014 - Cleaning Up Coketown: Can Air Pollution Be Controlled

    After years of lip service, China’s leaders are finally getting serious about cleaning up the country’s dreadful air. An all-out assault on filthy and unprofitable steel mills in Hebei is a good start, but much more will be needed.

    1
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q1 2014 - Japanese Business in China-Alive In The Bitter Sea

    Growing belligerence by China’s government and populace has driven Japanese companies’ confidence in the China market to its lowest level ever. An increasing number are hedging their bets by investing more in Southeast Asia. But some still find ways to win in hostile territory.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q1 2014 - The New 'Great Game' In Asia

    Asia’s two largest nations are battling it out for the hearts and minds of their regional neighbors. So far Japan is doing a better job of making friends, as it shifts aid and investment toward Southeast Asia. In the long run, though, China’s market power will continue to be its strongest asset.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q1 2014 - Shinzo Abe's Master Plan To Re-arm Japan

    International media celebrate Shinzo Abe for his economic stimulus and reform package. But ‘Abenomics’ is just a fig leaf for Abe’s true aim: an aggressive nationalist plan to re-militarize Japan in response to the rise of China. Can anything stop him? Most likely, Abenomics will.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q1 2014 - Unquiet On The Eastern Front

    For the first time, both China and Japan have strong nationalist leaders who are striking aggressive international postures. The Sino-Japanese economic relationship has never been bigger, but sentiment has never been worse. The bet here is that political theatrics will give way to economic pragmatism.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q1 2014 - Xi Jinping's Recipe For A Leaner, Stronger China

    Xi Jinping aims to fix the Chinese economy—and strengthen the Communist Party’s grip on power—by shaking up state-owned enterprises and revamping a dysfunctional fiscal system. It is an impressive program, but if it succeeds it could validate strong-man rule and undermine progress to a more open and liberal society.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q1 2014 - Can We Trust The Numbers?

    For years analysts have questioned the accuracy of China’s economic data, and especially its GDP figures. A careful look at the evidence shows that Chinese statistics get the big picture right. The key problem is not the quality of the data, but the government’s lack of transparency.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    What Will It Take To Clean Up Beijing's Smoggy Skies?

    With north China blanketed by soul-sapping smog for the past week, the disastrous state of the nation’s air is likely to be a top subject of corridor conversation at the upcoming National People’s Congress. Air quality is now a big enough concern for Chinese citizens that the government needs at least to seem like it is taking action against it (unless it decides to side with a much-mocked Rear Admiral who went on national television to praise...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    No, The Renminbi Is Not Tanking

    Markets were taken off-guard by a sudden depreciation of the renminbi in the past week. Are we seeing the end of the era of RMB appreciation against the dollar, as some analysts now argue? Or are we simply seeing a move engineered by the People’s Bank of China (PBC) to take the edge off speculative inflows driven by the perception that the renminbi was a one-way bet? The second explanation is obviously the right one.

    1
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    After Ukraine, Russia Risks Losing The New Great Game

    Russian president Vladimir Putin sat stony-faced through yesterday’s closing ceremony in Sochi. The Winter Olympics were supposed to convince the world that a confident and modern Russia is once again rising as a great power. But after a stunning reversal of fortune in the burning streets of Kiev, Ukraine appears to be slipping from Putin’s grasp.

    4
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Urbanization’s Winners And Losers

    China’s urbanization boom in the first decade of this century was historic. New migration to the cities accelerated to over 20m people a year, from the previous trend of 12-15m annually, making a majority of the national population urban by 2011. This increase in urbanization was part of a great reshuffling of China’s population: in general, its people have been leaving less well-off areas and concentrating in better-off ones. Yet while...

    4
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    How Hawkish Is China's Central Bank?

    At the start of 2013, the dominant worry among investors was that China was doing nothing to control its explosion of credit. At the start of 2014, the dominant worry among investors is that China is doing too much to control its explosion of credit, and that a sharp growth slowdown and financial turmoil will be the result. And just as the worries in early 2013 underestimated the government’s genuine commitment to structural reform, the current...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    5C China: IPOs, A Narrow But Efficient Funding Channel

    Restrictions on new stock offerings were lifted in January and 45 firms have since raised RMB21.5bn. Despite the horrible performance of Chinese equities since the mid-2000s super bubble, this is positive for China’s financial market development and also the wider economy, since capital is more likely to reach those firms best able to utilize it efficiently.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Better Governance Through Kung-Fu

    Aside from its fine Cantonese cuisine, the district of Shunde in the southern city of Foshan is famous for one thing: it is the ancestral home of Bruce Lee, China’s revered kung-fu master. Lee’s personal philosophy of martial arts, known in English as “The Way of the Intercepting Fist,” teaches an economy of motion defined by efficiency, directness and simplicity.

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    The Great Pacific Gas Arbitrage

    Severe winter weather in the US has driven gas prices higher, forcing power firms to impose sizeable fuel bill hikes on consumers. But those who think that the low-cost US energy revolution is about to be dashed on the rocks of rising production costs are wrong. US shale gas still trades at a near 60% price discount to Asian liquefied natural gas (LNG) benchmarks, and the gap is unlikely to close quickly. As the US faces no meaningful constraint...

    0
  • Please login, request a trial or contact our sales team for more information

    Gavekal Research

    Hong Kong's Banks: Not Iceland, But Still Chilly

    In the gory aftermath of the global financial crisis, the International Monetary Fund investigated five countries with outsized financial systems. Iceland was in this group and got the harshest review, while Hong Kong, in contrast, was praised for its prudent financial regulation. Is it possible that in the few years since that report was penned, Hong Kong has morphed into the world’s next “Iceland”? This, at any rate, is the kind of talk we...

    0
Show me: results