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E.g., 14-04-2021
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q1 2014 - Leadership, urbanization, local debt

    Xi’s Style: Checks Without Balances, Policies Without Politics

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    CEQ Q1 2014 - Cleaning Up Coketown: Can Air Pollution Be Controlled

    After years of lip service, China’s leaders are finally getting serious about cleaning up the country’s dreadful air. An all-out assault on filthy and unprofitable steel mills in Hebei is a good start, but much more will be needed.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q1 2014 - Japanese Business in China-Alive In The Bitter Sea

    Growing belligerence by China’s government and populace has driven Japanese companies’ confidence in the China market to its lowest level ever. An increasing number are hedging their bets by investing more in Southeast Asia. But some still find ways to win in hostile territory.

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    CEQ Q1 2014 - The New 'Great Game' In Asia

    Asia’s two largest nations are battling it out for the hearts and minds of their regional neighbors. So far Japan is doing a better job of making friends, as it shifts aid and investment toward Southeast Asia. In the long run, though, China’s market power will continue to be its strongest asset.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q1 2014 - Shinzo Abe's Master Plan To Re-arm Japan

    International media celebrate Shinzo Abe for his economic stimulus and reform package. But ‘Abenomics’ is just a fig leaf for Abe’s true aim: an aggressive nationalist plan to re-militarize Japan in response to the rise of China. Can anything stop him? Most likely, Abenomics will.

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    CEQ Q1 2014 - Unquiet On The Eastern Front

    For the first time, both China and Japan have strong nationalist leaders who are striking aggressive international postures. The Sino-Japanese economic relationship has never been bigger, but sentiment has never been worse. The bet here is that political theatrics will give way to economic pragmatism.

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    CEQ Q1 2014 - Xi Jinping's Recipe For A Leaner, Stronger China

    Xi Jinping aims to fix the Chinese economy—and strengthen the Communist Party’s grip on power—by shaking up state-owned enterprises and revamping a dysfunctional fiscal system. It is an impressive program, but if it succeeds it could validate strong-man rule and undermine progress to a more open and liberal society.

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    CEQ Q1 2014 - Can We Trust The Numbers?

    For years analysts have questioned the accuracy of China’s economic data, and especially its GDP figures. A careful look at the evidence shows that Chinese statistics get the big picture right. The key problem is not the quality of the data, but the government’s lack of transparency.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    What Will It Take To Clean Up Beijing's Smoggy Skies?

    With north China blanketed by soul-sapping smog for the past week, the disastrous state of the nation’s air is likely to be a top subject of corridor conversation at the upcoming National People’s Congress. Air quality is now a big enough concern for Chinese citizens that the government needs at least to seem like it is taking action against it (unless it decides to side with a much-mocked Rear Admiral who went on national television to praise...

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    Gavekal Research

    No, The Renminbi Is Not Tanking

    Markets were taken off-guard by a sudden depreciation of the renminbi in the past week. Are we seeing the end of the era of RMB appreciation against the dollar, as some analysts now argue? Or are we simply seeing a move engineered by the People’s Bank of China (PBC) to take the edge off speculative inflows driven by the perception that the renminbi was a one-way bet? The second explanation is obviously the right one.

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    Gavekal Research

    After Ukraine, Russia Risks Losing The New Great Game

    Russian president Vladimir Putin sat stony-faced through yesterday’s closing ceremony in Sochi. The Winter Olympics were supposed to convince the world that a confident and modern Russia is once again rising as a great power. But after a stunning reversal of fortune in the burning streets of Kiev, Ukraine appears to be slipping from Putin’s grasp.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Urbanization’s Winners And Losers

    China’s urbanization boom in the first decade of this century was historic. New migration to the cities accelerated to over 20m people a year, from the previous trend of 12-15m annually, making a majority of the national population urban by 2011. This increase in urbanization was part of a great reshuffling of China’s population: in general, its people have been leaving less well-off areas and concentrating in better-off ones. Yet while...

    4
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    Gavekal Research

    How Hawkish Is China's Central Bank?

    At the start of 2013, the dominant worry among investors was that China was doing nothing to control its explosion of credit. At the start of 2014, the dominant worry among investors is that China is doing too much to control its explosion of credit, and that a sharp growth slowdown and financial turmoil will be the result. And just as the worries in early 2013 underestimated the government’s genuine commitment to structural reform, the current...

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    Gavekal Research

    5C China: IPOs, A Narrow But Efficient Funding Channel

    Restrictions on new stock offerings were lifted in January and 45 firms have since raised RMB21.5bn. Despite the horrible performance of Chinese equities since the mid-2000s super bubble, this is positive for China’s financial market development and also the wider economy, since capital is more likely to reach those firms best able to utilize it efficiently.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Better Governance Through Kung-Fu

    Aside from its fine Cantonese cuisine, the district of Shunde in the southern city of Foshan is famous for one thing: it is the ancestral home of Bruce Lee, China’s revered kung-fu master. Lee’s personal philosophy of martial arts, known in English as “The Way of the Intercepting Fist,” teaches an economy of motion defined by efficiency, directness and simplicity.

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    Gavekal Research

    The Great Pacific Gas Arbitrage

    Severe winter weather in the US has driven gas prices higher, forcing power firms to impose sizeable fuel bill hikes on consumers. But those who think that the low-cost US energy revolution is about to be dashed on the rocks of rising production costs are wrong. US shale gas still trades at a near 60% price discount to Asian liquefied natural gas (LNG) benchmarks, and the gap is unlikely to close quickly. As the US faces no meaningful constraint...

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    Gavekal Research

    Hong Kong's Banks: Not Iceland, But Still Chilly

    In the gory aftermath of the global financial crisis, the International Monetary Fund investigated five countries with outsized financial systems. Iceland was in this group and got the harshest review, while Hong Kong, in contrast, was praised for its prudent financial regulation. Is it possible that in the few years since that report was penned, Hong Kong has morphed into the world’s next “Iceland”? This, at any rate, is the kind of talk we...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Wanted: More Creative Destruction

    If, as Joseph Schumpeter said, creative destruction is the “essential fact about capitalism,” then just how capitalist is China? Schumpeter coined the phrase creative destruction to refer to a process of corporate innovation that “incessantly revolutionizes the economic structure from within, incessantly destroying the old one, incessantly creating a new one.” More recent economic research supports his insight that destruction is closely tied to...

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    Gavekal Research

    The US Current Account And Vanishing Global Liquidity

    The US dollar is the world’s reserve currency which in simple terms means that the United States is the only country which can settle a foreign deficit by issuing its own money. As such, any “improvement” in the US current account balance means that fewer dollars show up outside of the US, while the reverse holds true in the event of a deterioration.

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    Riding The Rails To Reform

    Running railways in China has long been the prerogative of the state. But since mid-2013, officials from Premier Li Keqiang on down have been touting the opening of the rail sector to outside investors—a measure they say symbolizes a new environment favoring the private sector rather than state firms. On the face of it, this is an opportunity that private firms may not find very appealing: the Ministry of Railways could barely stay afloat...

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