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E.g., 14-04-2021
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    Gavekal Research

    5C Overview: How Much More Asian Deflation?

    The latest news from Asia’s biggest economies is uninspiring. China’s growth grinds lower, and the renminbi has declined by 3% against the US dollar since January. Japan is suffering the anticipated effects of this month’s consumption tax hike, and Anatole has predicted that the BoJ will respond later this year with a fresh round of money-printing which could push USD/JPY well above its established level of 102 to the dollar.

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    Gavekal Research

    Five Corners (16 April 2014)

    In the latest bi-weekly review of global economics and investment, Charles Gave explains why it still pays to run a balanced portfolio, despite the market’s rotation. Will Denyer argues that outlook for US consumption remains favorable, even though consumer cyclicals have taken a beating. François-Xavier Chauchat examines the reasons behind the euro’s persistent strength. Andrew Batson looks at Beijing’s new focus on jobs and finds the...

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    Gavekal Research

    Running The Red Queen's Race

    By reporting the relatively low figure of a 7.4% rise in first-quarter gross domestic product, down from 7.7% in the previous quarter, China has confirmed that the current pace of economic expansion is now roughly as weak as it was during previous downturns in 2008 and 2012. While the headline number was better than market expectations, and growth clearly picked up a little in March from the lows of January and February, there are worrying signs...

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    Gavekal Research

    Breaking The Bad News Cycle

    Alarm bells have been ringing over China for a while, and there have been plenty of Quasimodos to sound them. With a poorly-understood “shadow financing” system that accounts for 20% of total credit, an overbuilt real estate market, deficit-ridden local governments and under-capitalized banks, China’s financial system has been looking shaky. Financial stress, along with the relative tightness of central bank policy since last May, helps explain...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Breaking The Mold Of Capital Markets Reform

    For more than 20 years, China has been experimenting with ways of bringing in capital from equity investors overseas. What has characterized all of its various programs, with their bewildering array of names—red chips, B shares, QFII—was extremely tight central-government control over who could participate and how large the fund flows could get. But the tie-up announced last week between the Hong Kong and Shanghai stock exchanges shows that a...

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    Gavekal Research

    5C China: A Blurry Target For Job Growth

    China’s top policymakers have spent the past week preparing the public for today’s weak GDP reading—a rise of 7.4% in 1Q14—by emphasizing that as long as enough jobs are being created, it doesn’t matter if growth is a bit below the 7.5% official target. This is a laudable attempt to wean the system off its obsession with GDP numbers and get officials to focus on more relevant indicators.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Rocky Road To Market Rates

    The race is on. Central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan said last month that he expects the liberalization of interest rates on bank deposits to be complete within two years—the first time such a clear timetable has been given for the final step in the deregulation of Chinese interest rates. Financial reform in China has usually been slow and gradual, so the two-year timeframe is a bold commitment.

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    In Laos, All Roads Lead To China

    Two thousand years ago, in the days of the Roman Empire, it was said that “All roads lead to Rome.” Rome’s might was built on the back of metaled roads constructed by an army of 180,000 legionnaires, who pushed the expansion of the empire to its geographic limits. China’s expansion over its modern-day borders is primarily economic, not military. But as China’s massive domestic road-building program extends over its borders into Southeast and...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    In Laos, All Roads Lead To China

    Two thousand years ago, in the days of the Roman Empire, it was said that “All roads lead to Rome.” Rome’s might was built on the back of metaled roads constructed by an army of 180,000 legionnaires, who pushed the expansion of the empire to its geographic limits. China’s expansion over its modern-day borders is primarily economic, not military. But as China’s massive domestic road-building program extends over its borders into Southeast and...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    No Bridgehead Too Far In China’s Expanding Empire

    For centuries, China’s borders expanded and contracted as dynasties rose and fell. With its star in the ascendant, the Chinese empire is expanding once more. This expansion is based on economic power—trade and investment—not military conquest. But it will nevertheless reshape the geopolitics of Asia.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    No Bridgehead Too Far In China’s Expanding Empire

    For centuries, China’s borders expanded and contracted as dynasties rose and fell. With its star in the ascendant, the Chinese empire is expanding once more. This expansion is based on economic power—trade and investment—not military conquest. But it will nevertheless reshape the geopolitics of Asia.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    London Seminar April 2014 - Anatole, Arthur, Louis & Francois

    We held our spring seminar in London on April 2, with Anatole, Arthur, Louis and Francois offering their take on the state of the world economy and financial markets. Audio recordings of their discussions are available below:

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    China: Support Not Stimulus

    Last night China's State Council unveiled a plan to support growth through additional spending on railways and low cost housing, and via tax relief for small businesses. The offshore market leapt on the news as a signal of changing policy direction. Following recent economic data that appeared to undermine Premier Li Keqiang’s chances of achieving his declared goal of 7.5% growth this year, there were rising expectations for some sort of...

    1
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    Gavekal Research

    Growth & Markets Monthly (April 2014)

    Please find the latest monthly review of our models and indicators. In this edition we note two important changes. First, our growth indicators have taken a turn for the worse, and second our indicators on risk appetite have deteriorated. Since we have seen no significant rises in market spreads, this is probably more a sign of a slightly overextended rally, then a real erosion of financial conditions. Could the rally in risk assets be about to...

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    Gavekal Research

    Bet On Europe Vs The US-EM Axis

    Following decades of European economic integration, euro coins and notes were introduced with great fanfare in January 2002. Equity investors barely noticed as their attention was focused on the emerging trans-Pacific economic relationship between the US and China. Initially, this axis relied on the buying power of the US consumer and the production capabilities of the Chinese factory lands. But as the decade wore on this simplified “ChinAmerica...

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    Gavekal Research

    A Good Scalping In Hong Kong

    Massive rains and golf-balls sized hail pelted Hong Kong this weekend, but the weather did not stop the throngs from showing up and cheering on the annual Rugby Sevens. Yet surely it was a tough year for the scalpers, who gather outside the stadium on game days to sell coveted tickets at huge mark-ups to official prices. The rain and dark skies must have given the buyers the upper hand in this year’s price negotiations.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Unexpected Return Of State Enterprise Reform

    Reforming China’s vast array of state-owned enterprises is once again on the government’s agenda, after a decade of drift. This development has caught many observers by surprise, since it runs against the conventional wisdom that SOEs are entrenched vested interests able to easily block change. In this chartbook, Andrew explains how SOEs’ failures opened the door for a new round of reform, how local governments are now taking the lead—and what...

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    Gavekal Research

    China's Shale Gas Getting Bubblier

    A year and a half ago, China’s nascent shale sector looked like so much sound and fury, signifying nothing. The country’s shale potential is widely regarded as the largest in the world. But two rounds of auctions for exploration licenses had largely fallen flat—with conspicuous bids by real estate companies and other firms with no oil and gas experience. State controlled downstream prices, meanwhile, made Chinese shale look like a money-losing...

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    Gavekal Research

    5C Asia: Cyclical Prospects Favor India Over Indonesia - Udith Sikand & Joyce Poon

    Differences in the way macroeconomic adjustment has affected Brazil, India, Indonesia, South Africa and Turkey have shown that lumping disparate economies together with tags like the “Fragile Five”, “BRICS” or “MINT” does little to illuminate the risk-reward trade-off for EM investors.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    5C China: Identity Of Mystery Gold Buyer Revealed!

    A few hundred tons of gold went missing, statistically speaking, in China last year. According to the China Gold Association, Chinese consumers purchased 1,176 tons of gold in 2013, overtaking Indians as the world’s largest buyers of gold. But the supply of gold to China last year seems to have been much bigger than even that large figure: domestic gold mines produced 428 tons, scrap recycling another 126 tons, and imports, according to...

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