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E.g., 14-04-2021
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    Gavekal Research

    How To Lose The Eastern Front

    Russia, it appears, has emerged victorious in Ukraine. After the unofficial referendums organized by pro-Russian groups in Ukraine’s eastern regions, Kiev knows it must negotiate with the separatists to avoid national disintegration. A deal on autonomy for parts of Donetsk and Luhansk will have to be made on terms acceptable to Vladimir Putin.

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    Gavekal Research

    The Case For (Some) Emerging Markets

    Investors in emerging markets need to focus on three main things: nominal GDP growth in US dollar terms, valuations and leverage. The problem is that over the last decade, most EMs enjoyed very strong nominal growth in US dollar terms, in which valuation and currency played a bigger role than real growth. That game has run its course and the key to success in the coming period is identifying those markets with strong real growth prospects that...

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    Gavekal Research

    Five Corners (14 May 2014)

    In the latest bi-weekly review of global economics and investment:

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    Gavekal Research

    Constructing The Profit Cycle

    As housing goes, so goes China’s economy. The last couple of painful downturns in domestic growth, in 2008 and 2012, were largely driven by downturns in housing and new construction. While real estate and construction are large sectors themselves, the real reason for this broad economic impact is how much the sales and profits of other business sectors depend on construction activity. The latest data for April—housing sales falling 16% YoY, and...

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    Gavekal Research

    EM Carry Trade Looks Vulnerable

    Over the last two months, emerging markets have delivered a handsome rally, with the MSCI emerging markets index recording a 7% return in US dollar terms, compared with just 1% for the developed markets. The trouble is that this rally has been driven primarily by investors’ growing enthusiasm for carry trades in an environment of declining global volatility. Experience teaches this is an engine which can all too suddenly be thrown into reverse

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    Gavekal Research

    5C China: Clouds Gather Over Property Outlook

    China’s economic indicators for April showed growth holding steady, albeit at sluggish rates, in manufacturing and consumer spending. Exports are even picking up once the data problems are dealt with. But while growth may be stable for the moment the risks of a further downturn are rising, as sales and sentiment worsen in the housing market.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Search For Safe Food

    Since the horrifying melamine scandal of 2008—when 300,000 children were sickened by milk products tainted with an industrial chemical—the safety of food in China has been in permanent crisis. Hardly a month seems to pass without a media exposé of real or exaggerated problems: pesticides in produce, banned drugs in meat, cadmium in rice, the re-use of cooking oil. The result has been a dramatic and sustained shift in Chinese consumer behavior as...

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    Gavekal Research

    5C Asia: Hong Kong’s Diminished Prospects

    Even as Chinese growth has ebbed, Hong Kong has defied the downturn. The territory effectively has full employment and real wages have risen nicely. Over the last year, hot money flows continued to enter Hong Kong and tourists from across the border kept arriving. This, at least, was the case until recently when cracks started to appear in the prosperity of China’s preferred haven for tax-avoidance and luxury shopping.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Renminbi Reconsidered

    The fall in the renminbi over the last two months has prompted much anxiety. For the past nine years one of the few certainties of global markets was that the Chinese currency would end the year stronger (or at least no weaker) than it began. That certainty has been demolished—which indeed was the goal of the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) when it engineered the depreciation. There are now two questions to consider. First, how much further might...

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    Gavekal Research

    Growth & Markets Monthly (May 2014)

    For a second straight month, our growth indicators have weakened, suggesting the possibility of another summer lull. The outlier is US employment, as evidenced by last week’s very decent non-farm payroll report. We were also intrigued by the recent pick-up in US 5-year inflation expectations, which does not seem to fit with the narrative of constant deflationary pressures. Combined with recent US wage growth, could this imply that there is a...

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    Gavekal Research

    Five Corners (30 April 2014)

    In the latest bi-weekly review of global economics and investment, Arthur Kroeber considers the implications of Asian deflation. Will Denyer & Tan Kai Xian consider the strong rental market for US homes and wonder what this means for the broader housing sector. Nick Andrews looks up close at reduced liquidity in the eurozone’s financial system. Chen Long looks at a favorable convergence between national GDP numbers and the growth claims made...

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    Gavekal Research

    What Ails The Dollar

    A curious brew of cheap money, a grinding cyclical recovery and “new economy” verisimilitude has helped drive Wall Street to new highs. And yet even as equity investors have scaled the wall of worry, the dollar has remained uninspired. The unit arguably started a structural upswing in 2008 but the recent performance has been lackluster with the DXY index at the bottom of its trading range.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    A Supply-Side Correction In Property

    The supply side of China’s property market is looking surprisingly weak. Indicators of property developers’ desire to expand future housing supply are turning down: construction starts have fallen outright by more than 20% YoY for each of the first three months of 2014, and land purchases swung to a sharp 17% decline in March from slow growth in earlier months. This deterioration in the supply side looks out of proportion to the more gentle...

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    Gavekal Research

    Beijing’s Peruvian Copper Play

    Earlier this month a consortium of Chinese state-owned companies agreed to buy a huge Peruvian copper mining project from Glencore Xstrata for US$5.9bn. The new Chinese owners will need to invest another US$2.4bn to bring the project on stream by its scheduled start date in 2015, bringing their total investment to US$8.3bn. Is this massive deal yet another example of China Inc. overpaying for resource assets? Probably not: tight global supplies...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    What's Going On With The RMB?

    Even though the renminbi fell steeply in the first quarter, sliding 2.7% against the US dollar, capital continued to flow heavily into China. Balance of payments data published last Friday show China’s current account surplus for the period was just US$7.3bn. The capital account, however, notched up a surplus of US$118.3bn.

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    Gavekal Research

    Beijing's Peruvian Copper Play

    Earlier this month a consortium of Chinese state-owned companies agreed to buy a huge Peruvian copper mining project from Glencore Xstrata for US$5.9bn. The new Chinese owners will need to invest another US$2.4bn to bring the project on stream by its scheduled start date in 2015, bringing their total investment to US$8.3bn. Is this massive deal yet another example of China Inc. overpaying for resource assets? Probably not: tight global supplies...

    0
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    Fathom China

    Profile: UnionPay: Breaking The Monopoly

    The way that billions of people pay for things is in flux across the world. No sooner had consumers grown accustomed to using bank cards instead of cash than the next big thing, online payments, swept onto the scene. In China, a giant state-owned firm called China UnionPay (“UnionPay”) has long straddled most payment channels as the only authorized bank card network. UnionPay is a government-controlled cousin to Visa or MasterCard, with its logo...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Watch Capital Flows For The Central Bank’s Next Move

    How will China’s central bank respond to the country’s slowing growth? Speculation about the next move from the People’s Bank of China has been rising as economic indicators continue to be tepid, credit growth continues to slow and the currency remains weak. Similarly, in early 2012 GDP growth was also weak, credit was cooling and the RMB was depreciating—and shortly afterward the central bank cut banks’ reserve requirements and credit growth...

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    Gavekal Research

    5C China: Regional Growth Gets Uglier, But More Accurate

    In China, the whole is not necessarily greater than the sum of its parts; in fact it can be less. China’s provincial GDP figures are viewed skeptically because of two obvious problems: the sum of provincial GDP is often much higher than national GDP, and most provinces report GDP growth faster than the national average. In what could be a sign of higher-quality data at the local level, both of these trends are now changing: the gap between the...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Defaults Are Coming: Where, When And How

    In early 2014, China’s financial markets witnessed a milestone: for the first time, issuers of local, domestic-currency corporate bonds went into default. With China’s economy slowing and many debts coming due this year, these will be only the first of many defaults on corporate bonds.

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