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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Future History Of China’s Deleveraging

    If there’s one thing almost everyone can agree about on China, it’s that its rise in debt has been very rapid, and is not sustainable. But where does China go from here? In this chartbook, we use historical examples to think about how a future deleveraging process might occur.

    14
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    Gavekal Research

    Emerging Asia's Leverage Problem

    Aggregate debt levels in Asia (ex-China) are back to levels seen just prior to the 1997-98 Asian Financial Crisis. This does not pose a near term macro-economic risk since most Asian economies have large foreign currency reserves and run flexible currency regimes. Indeed, this was the mercantilist lesson most Asian economies learnt from the late '90s crisis. Still, Joyce and KX show in this chart book that the likes of China, South Korea...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    5C China: Uncertainty Is The Real Problem

    Chinese equities look cheap, both in historical terms and compared with other markets. The price to earnings ratio for the Shanghai Composite has fallen from highs of more than 60 in 2007 to around 10, well below the MSCI World average of 15. But given the economic transition China is going through, neither its own history, nor other countries, are a good guide to whether current valuations are low. On examination, the earnings growth rates...

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Fears For China's Growth Postponed

    The Chinese government has once again successfully stabilized the economy. Spooked by decelerating growth and a property market correction early in the year, the government has spent the last few months loosening credit and rolling out supportive policies. Today’s economic data release showed the pay-off: GDP growth in the second quarter picked up slightly to 7.5%, beating expectations it would be flat at 7.4%. This means that investors’ fears...

    1
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Of Reform And Red Tape

    Is China’s reform drive for real? Since Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang took over the reins of government at the beginning of 2013, they have promised sweeping changes to economic policy, foreign affairs and public morality, among other areas. But they have also faced persistent skepticism that the substance of these changes lags behind their lofty rhetoric—and it is true that many of their biggest reforms remain mostly in the planning stages.

    0
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    Fathom China

    The Crucial Smell Test For Investors In Chinese Companies

    With asset prices around the world continuing to rise, low-priced Chinese equities now look extraordinarily attractive to value investors. But investors should not check their skepticism at the border. Many investors in seemingly vibrant Chinese private sector firms have become victims of frauds, often later exposed by short sellers. However, the fear of falling for such scams is no reason to avoid investing in all Chinese firms. Straightforward...

    0
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    Fathom China

    Profile: Due Diligence: Don't Get Fooled Again

    Many investors in Chinese firms check their skepticism at the border, and so have been easy prey for short sellers who benefit from exposing fraudulent companies. This report shows how investors can gain confidence that Chinese companies will be unlikely to come under successful short attacks. Solid due diligence can prevent a lot of pain.

    1
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    Gavekal Research

    Five Corners (9 July 2014)

    Nothing should stay the same and so we are tweaking the format of Five Corners to make the whole report focus on a key thematic issue that impacts all major centers of the global economy. We kick off with an in depth look at inflation which is again rearing its head even as the specter of deflation continues to haunt the most growth-challenged regions.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Wrong Kind Of Leverage

    For years now the Chinese government has been trying to make it easier for private-sector firms to borrow. Its recent measures to encourage bank lending have privileged those banks that lend more loans to (overwhelmingly private) small and medium-sized enterprises. This is a worthy goal: since private firms make much higher returns on investment than their clumsy state-owned cousins, economic growth will get a boost if private firms borrow and...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Growth & Markets Monthly (July 2014)

    Having watched our growth indicators soften over recent months, we are now witnessing a momentum shift since our economic activity indicators have perked up markedly. Moreover, the velocity of money has risen rapidly, while our price indicators continue to show lessening deflationary pressure. Hence, it was not surprising to see that bonds are getting more expensive. Unfortunately, equities are not cheap, and this makes it a challenging...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    5C Overview: Gold & inflation

    An investor who bought gold upon Arthur Burns’ arrival at the Federal Reserve and held it up until the day Ben Bernanke announced the second round of quantitative easing would have done about as well as someone who bought-and-held US equities (using the S&P 500 total return as the proxy). Both assets compounded at a little over 10% a year between February 1970 and August 2011. Amusingly, most gold-bugs reacted to QE2 (and then QE3) with glee...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    5C China: Looking For The Exit From Deflation

    From the consumer’s perspective, China’s inflation trends look wonderfully benign, with the consumer price index showing the kind of stable and low-but-positive inflation readings beloved of central bankers. Since 2012, CPI inflation excluding food has hovered around 1.6% YoY, never going above 1.9% or below 1.4%. Yet from the producer’s perspective, China has been going through an extended and wrenching period of deflation: the producer price...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Perilous Seas

    Across Asia, Xi Jinping’s much-vaunted “Chinese Dream” looks more and more like a Chinese nightmare. Last week, China unveiled an official map showing the South China Sea as an integral part of the country. The new map, which is designed to enhance awareness of China’s territorial claims stretching down the coasts of Vietnam, Malaysia and the Philippines, deepens concern that the China Seas are beginning to resemble central Europe in the early...

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Growth, Reform Or Both?

    Is China’s government more focused on short-term growth or long-term reform? Those hoping for a clear answer are getting disappointed.

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Perilous Seas

    Across Asia, Xi Jinping’s much-vaunted “Chinese Dream” looks more and more like a Chinese nightmare. Last week, China unveiled an official map showing the South China Sea as an integral part of the country. The new map, which is designed to enhance awareness of China’s territorial claims stretching down the coasts of Vietnam, Malaysia and the Philippines, deepens concern that the China Seas are beginning to resemble central Europe in the early...

    4
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    Gavekal Research

    Buried Krugerrands Or Outperforming Emerging Markets

    Approaching 2014’s half-way mark most major asset classes have returned between 3% and 6% over the year to date. There are two outliers: Japan, which has lagged other markets following 2013’s gains, and precious metals, which have outperformed. So far this year gold is up 9.4%.

    4
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    Gavekal Research

    Five Corners (25 June)

    In the latest bi-weekly review of global economics and investment:

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    Rising Velocity Is Driving Markets

    As we approach the half-year mark for 2014, it is remarkable how well asset markets have performed this year. Pretty much every major asset class has registered decent gains. US bonds? The long end of the US government bond market is up by 10%, even after the recent mild sell-off. Commodities? The CRB index is up by 8.6%. Global equities? The world MSCI is up by 6%.

    2
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    Gavekal Research

    The Hong Kong Crisis That Isn’t

    Over the weekend 700,000 inhabitants of Hong Kong, China’s dominant international financial center, voted in an unofficial referendum calling for full democracy and universal suffrage in the territory from 2017. The poll comes just over a week before a pro-democracy movement known as Occupy Central—or Occupy Central With Love And Peace, to give it its full name—has threatened to blockade key roads in the city, bringing the main financial...

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Healthcare: From Demand To Supply

    The moment has come for China’s healthcare sector. As the nation’s economy shifts onto a slower growth trajectory, the boom sectors of the previous decade or two are in retreat, and domestic and foreign investors are looking for new growth areas. Healthcare fits the bill: the economic properties of healthcare mean that, at least over the longer term, demand for health services will grow at least as fast and probably faster than the overall...

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