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    Gavekal Research

    China And North Asia’s Deflation Syndrome

    Northeast Asian economies are “fated” to experience a structural deflation as they mature due to the nature of their industrialization model. Such economic determinism means that China faces an imminent risk of structural deflation similar to that experienced by Taiwan 20 years ago. In this piece Joyce argues that the way Northeast Asian economies protect their financial systems helps them avoid acute financial crises, but ensures a date with...

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    Gavekal Research

    Five Corners (10 December): Contrarian Ideas For 2015

    Overview: Anatole Kaletsky looks at the struggle between the Middle-East sheiks and US oil producers and concludes that oil is about to finally conform to standard economic theory. One unintended consequence may be the effective liquidation of western oil majors. United States: Will Denyer considers the dramatic scaling back of the US shale oil sector but argues that US capital spending should do just fine next year. Europe: Francois Chauchat...

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    Gavekal Research

    China A-Shares: Beyond The Leverage

    It is no secret that China’s A-share market has risen as far and as fast as it has over the last few weeks because stock prices have been propelled by an explosion in margin trading and soaring interest in index futures. But although rising leverage can add enormously to the momentum of a stock market rally to create a runaway snowball effect, leverage by itself is not enough to set the ball rolling in the first place. At least some of the...

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    Gavekal Research

    New York Seminar December 2014 - Charles, Francois, Tom & Will

    We held our winter seminar in New York on December 5 with Charles, Francois, Tom and Will offering their views of the global economic pulse and recent market developments.

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    Gavekal Research

    5C China: No One Expects Chinese Inflation

    Not many prices are rising in China these days. Core consumer-price inflation has averaged less than 2% over the past two years. The producer price index has been falling for nearly three years. Prices of coal, iron ore and now oil, once bolstered by Chinese demand, are in retreat globally. Housing prices are in their longest correction since 2008.

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    Gavekal Research

    A Dream Of Asian Empire

    After years of passive diplomacy, China is now making it clear that it wants to play a substantive role on the global stage. In foreign policy, Xi Jinping’s “Chinese dream” means restoring China’s historical dominance in Asia. China is serious about winning friends and helping its neighbors to benefit from its rise, but its own interests come first: it wants to generate new trade networks, open up transit routes for its exports, and develop its...

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    Gavekal Research

    Normalization of Chinese oil demand

    China’s investment–heavy and energy-intensive model of economic growth over the last decade meant that the country accounted for about two thirds of global oil demand growth. A frenzy of building, manufacturing and freight movement resulted in an extra 450,000 barrels of oil, on average, being consumed each day. But as China’s economy eases into a lower growth trajectory and energy efficiency policies are adopted, oil demand growth could halve...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    A Leverage-Driven Rally

    China’s domestic “A-share” market is on steroids. The Shanghai Composite index has now risen by 42% since the middle of the year, and has shot up by 18% just in the nine trading days since the People’s Bank of China cut benchmark interest rates. Sure, the rate cut provided a fillip to sentiment, yet even so the current rally looks highly unusual. Over the last three years, the A-share market has broadly mirrored China’s economic cycle, rising...

    0
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    Gavekal Research

    China's Leverage-Driven Rally

    China’s domestic ‘A-share’ market is on steroids. The Shanghai composite index has now risen by 38% since the middle of the year, and has shot up by 15% just in the eight trading days since the People’s Bank of China cut benchmark interest rates. Sure, the rate cut provided a fillip to sentiment, yet even so the current rally looks highly unusual. Over the last three years, the A-share market has broadly mirrored China’s economic cycle, rising...

    3
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    Gavekal Research

    The Burning Questions For 2015

    With two reports a day, and often more, readers sometimes complain that keeping tabs on the thoughts of the various Gavekal analysts can be a challenge. So as the year draws to a close, it may be helpful if we recap the main questions confronting investors and the themes we strongly believe in, region by region.

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    Gavekal Research

    Growth & Markets Monthly (December 2014)

    This month saw our main growth indicator drop into negative territory for the first time in more than a year. The key drags were the commodity-related components and the underperformance of growth-sensitive stock markets such as South Korea and Sweden. The chief concern for markets is whether lower oil prices and the new monetary activism of the Bank of Japan and promises of action from the European Central bank can help reignite market momentum...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ: The Xi Jinping Scorecard

    How is Xi Jinping doing? A year after the landmark Third Plenum at which China's leader laid out his vision for reforming China, this issue of the CEQ takes a close look at the progress of the reform program. Our expert contributors assess the achievements and the shortfalls, the winners and the losers.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Dilemma Of Deposit Insurance

    After debating it for more than 20 years, China has begun the process of setting up a deposit-insurance system, which will give the government’s formal backing to most bank deposits. Deposit insurance is the conventional protection against financial crises in 112 countries: it shields households from the vagaries of financial markets, helps prevent bank runs and improves financial stability. But China’s different starting point means that it...

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    Gavekal Research

    A Better Class Of Bubble

    We never tire of pointing out that, when it comes to bubbles, no two bubbles are ever the same. Firstly, bubbles can bid up asset values because of their perceived ‘scarcity’ (typically land and real estate, but also tulips, or gold…) or because of their productivity (canals, railroads, telecom lines, energy…). This distinction matters because, in the first case, an economy is left with no more land (or gold, or tulips…) than at the outset. In...

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    Gavekal Research

    Quarterly Strategy Chartbook - Avoiding The Pitfalls Ahead

    Forces of creative destruction are building up in the world economy as never before. Several of Gavekal’s key indicators are signalling that we are moving into a mild deflationary boom, in which cheaper resources, lower technology costs—especially for robotics—and accelerating disintermediation—notably in the financial sector—all promise to act as game-changers over the coming years. Reliably picking winners in such disruptive times is difficult...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q4 2014

    China’s growth decelerates again. After a short mid-year recovery, China’s GDP growth slowed again to 7.3% in the third quarter. Senior leaders’ comments about the “new normal” for economic growth show a further slowdown is expected. The trade balance is solid, thanks to decent demand from the US and Europe and falling commodity prices. But consumption and income growth are starting to weaken.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q4 2014 - Irresistible Advance Of The Private Sector

    Markets over Mao: The Rise of Private Business in China, by Nicholas R. Lardy (Peterson Institute for International Economics, 2014)

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q4 2014 - Socialist Rule Of Law, Hong Kong Democracy Movement

    So What Exactly Is 'Socialist Rule Of Law With Chinese Characteristics'?

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q4 2014 - The Market Is Open - Should You Buy?

    Foreigners can now invest in domestic Chinese shares through their Hong Kong brokers. Unfortunately, there are precious few reasons to buy.

    0
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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q4 2014 - Quiet Empire Building Along The New Silk Road

    China is pursuing infrastructure diplomacy in Central Asia, and it wields a big checkbook. The recipients of its largesse have mixed feelings.

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