Gavekal Dragonomics

Arthur Kroeber

Mar 08th 2015

For years, increased openness was the companion of reform. Xi Jinping believes openness is dispensable, and is clamping down on the internet, academia and civil society. His program may work, but bodes ill for the hope that China can become an innovation hub.

Gavekal Dragonomics

Rosealea Yao, Michal Meidan

Mar 08th 2015

China has surpassed the US as the world’s biggest oil importer. The plunge in crude prices gives it new leverage in its quest to diversify its sources of supply.

Gavekal Dragonomics

Rosealea Yao, Michal Meidan

Mar 08th 2015

Just a few years ago, the notion that China’s coal use might soon stop growing was laughable. Now it seems likely that peak coal demand is imminent.

Gavekal Dragonomics

Research Team

Mar 08th 2015

This issue of the CEQ explores the dramatic and sometimes contradictory changes in China's energy picture. China is now the world's biggest importer of oil and by far the largest emitter of greenhouse gases. But the economic slowdown and pollution reduction policies are also starting to bite, sharply curbing growth in energy consumption.

Gavekal Research

Louis Gave

Mar 04th 2015

Since the late 1980s, oil prices have only collapsed by -50% or more over a six month period on two occasions: during the 2008 crisis and in the period since last August. In itself, this begs some interesting questions: does the sudden drop in the WTI and Brent price mean that the world economy is falling apart? Or that oil is set to bounce back? Or finally, that oil was in a bubble which has now imploded? At this juncture, the first option...

Gavekal Research

Pierre Gave

Mar 03rd 2015

Our latest monthly report shows that the modest recovery in growth indicators, which started last month, has continued. Since central banks are engaged in aggressive easing action on a number of fronts, it would be surprising if this improvement does not continue. In addition, our velocity indicator has rallied and hovers at a six month high, which mirrors the low level of the VIX index. Such readings point to a “risk-on” environment, but we...

Gavekal Research

Research Team

Feb 25th 2015

Overview: Property gets a bad rap from macro-economists as an “unproductive” asset. This mistakes its true value in modern economies, argues Anatole Kaletsky. United States: Despite recent soft housing data, the US housing market is ready to rip, say Will Denyer and Tan Kai Xian. Europe: Francois Chauchat argues that Europe’s housing market may have entered a gently rising cycle for the first time since 2007. China: Property sales have picked...

Gavekal Research

Rosealea Yao

Feb 23rd 2015

Over the past few months, the long-running decline in China’s housing sales has clearly bottomed and started to improve. December’s sales decline was just 4% YoY, compared to the 16% drop in July. But while this kind of improvement in previous cycles would have translated into a similar turnaround in construction activity, that has not been forthcoming this time.

Gavekal Dragonomics

Michal Meidan

Feb 19th 2015

For the world’s second-largest buyer of crude oil, the collapse in oil prices is a great bargain: the import bill for the 6mn barrels of oil shipped to China every day has halved in the space of a few months. But does now-cheap oil mean that the billions of dollars China spent buying oil assets abroad, or on loans to friendly governments of oil-producing countries, have been a waste? We doubt China’s policymakers are losing much sleep over this...