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Gavekal Research
Will Denyer, Anatole Kaletsky
Sep 11th 2020
Webinar: From Bearish To (Conditionally) Bullish
Anatole and Will presented their views on the efficacy of US fiscal and monetary policy in response to the Covid crisis, and outlined the prospects for the economy and asset markets.
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Gavekal Research
Tom Miller, Udith Sikand
Sep 10th 2020
Pained Tales From The Hills
On Monday, for the first time since 1975, gunshots were fired on the disputed Himalayan border between India and China.Hundreds of incidents occur along the undemarcated Line of Actual Control every year, but this year’s skirmishes are the most dangerous for at least five decades.
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Dan Wang
Sep 09th 2020
The Open-Source Moment Arrives
Most of the US government’s efforts to hinder China’s technological progress have focused on hardware, mainly semiconductors. But software is also now a front in the US-China tech conflict. As Dan explains in this piece, those tensions could make open-source software, which is free from most legal restrictions, even more globally important.
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Gavekal Research
Charles Gave, Louis Gave, Cedric Gemehl, Didier Darcet
Sep 09th 2020
Webinar: Global Investment Roundtable (in French), Sept 2020
In a turbulent economic environment, Louis sought to identify assets with “anti-fragile” qualities; Cedric deciphered the message from European markets; Didier Darcet refreshed refresh an old Gavekal framework with “Four Quadrants 2.0” and Charles moderated the discussion.
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Gilliam Collinsworth Hamilton
Sep 08th 2020
Victory Over The Virus
With no new domestic cases in almost a month, Xi Jinping effectively declared victory on Tuesday in the struggle against Covid-19. In this Quick Take, Gilliam explains how China’s post-Covid landscape is shaping up for consumer services, and why Beijing is unlikely to open up internationally any time soon.
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Gavekal Research
Louis Gave
Sep 08th 2020
Desperately Seeking Anti-Fragility (Part II): In The Eye Of The Beholder
Previously, Louis outlined the four asset classes that investors appear to regard as anti-fragile, now that US treasuries no longer fit the bill. With each of these four asset classes enjoying a roaring bull-run, today Louis examines the typical life cycle that lifts an asset class from unloved hell to anti-fragile heaven.
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Gavekal Research
Charles Gave, Louis Gave, Will Denyer
Sep 04th 2020
Webinar: Global Investment Roundtable, September 2020
Charles Gave, Louis Gave and Will Denyer joined Arthur Kroeber at the global investment roundtable to discuss what's going on in the global economy. Charles identified three big trends that will affect the investment environment in the long term, Will gave an in-dept update on the US economy, and Louis examined where to find assets with “anti-fragile” properties.
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Dan Wang
Sep 03rd 2020
Restraint And Retaliation
As the US government has rolled out ever more actions targeting Chinese firms, China has exercised restraint and has mostly opted not to retaliate in kind. As Dan explains, the government is taking the long view on the economy rather than pandering to nationalist outrage. But China is also developing legal tools that could be used to hurt US firms.
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Gavekal Research
Anatole Kaletsky
Sep 03rd 2020
Why I Was Right To Turn Bullish
Previously, Anatole tried to explain why he had abandoned the bearish view on equities. We will not know for a long time whether any of his explanations make sense, but Jerome Powell’s speech about the Federal Reserve’s new operating philosophy bolstered his confidence in a once-in-a-generation economic regime change.
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Gavekal Research
Charles Gave, Louis Gave
Sep 03rd 2020
Strategy Monthly: Eight Questions, 11 Answers
With US equities once again at record highs and the Fed promising to keep rates nailed to the floor, it is time to ask hard questions of the bull market that won’t die. That interrogation is conducted by Charles and Louis Gave. In these strange times, the case for owning anti-fragile assets has rarely been stronger, they contend. Four stand out for having weathered the pandemic and should be treated seriously.
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Wei He
Aug 31st 2020
The Experiment With Sectoral Monetary Policy
Central banks usually concern themselves with the economy in the aggregate. The People’s Bank of China is now experimenting with a disaggregated approach, minimizing changes in overall policy and instead directing the flow of credit to specific sectors. In this piece, Wei considers whether this experiment can work, and where rates are headed.
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Thomas Gatley
Aug 28th 2020
An Acceptable Amount Of Chaos
The first batch of 18 firms on Shenzhen’s tech-oriented ChiNext board under new registration-based IPO regulations exhibited exceptional levels of price volatility this week after their Monday debut. In this Quick Take, Thomas explains why this volatility is to be expected in Chinese equities and might even be an improvement on the status quo.
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Andrew Batson, Dan Wang
Aug 27th 2020
The Dimensions Of Decoupling In 2020
The “decoupling” of the US and Chinese economies that began with a trade war has now spread to almost all aspects of the relationship, with the Covid-19 pandemic accelerating the process. In this chartbook, Andrew and Dan show what decoupling looks like so far in 2020, using data on flows of trade, investment, technology, finance and people.
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Gilliam Collinsworth Hamilton
Aug 25th 2020
Understanding Dual Circulation
Top leader Xi Jinping is now promoting a new slogan—dubbed “dual circulation”—to manage China's significant dependencies on the global economy. In this report, Gilliam explains how this does not mean the country is turning inward, but rather trying to gain more control over its long-term growth without losing its role as an international hub.
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Dan Wang
Aug 21st 2020
Climbing Up The Smartphone Smiling Curve
Chinese advances in hardware technology have increased the country’s contribution to the global smartphone supply chain. In this report, Dan explains how Chinese firms have increased their value-added in both innovation and branding. Now, he suggests, the main headwinds for Chinese smartphones are no longer technological, but geopolitical.
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Thomas Gatley
Aug 20th 2020
Headwinds Build For Equities
Chinese equities tapped on their ceiling this week but have been unable to break through, despite both surprisingly positive economic data and rebounding corporate earnings. In this piece, Thomas explains how increasingly adverse liquidity conditions are keeping a downward pressure on the markets which is unlikely to lift in the short term.
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Gavekal Research
Dan Wang
Aug 18th 2020
A Death Sentence For Huawei
The US government has passed a death sentence on Huawei. The questions now are whether it will choose to suspend that sentence, and whether China will retaliate by punishing major US companies. The likely answers, says Dan, are no and no. Huawei is probably finished as a maker of 5G network equipment and smartphones once its inventories run out early next year.
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Xiaoxi Zhang
Aug 17th 2020
Don’t Call It A Bailout
China’s government is finally rolling out a plan to aid small banks, the weakest links in the nation’s financial system. But don’t call it a bailout, Xiaoxi argues in this piece: while the government will replenish RMB200bn in capital, the money will mostly support relatively solid banks. The truly troubled banks will be shuttered or acquired.
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Gavekal Research
Louis Gave
Aug 14th 2020
Huawei And The Roads Of The Future
China is engaged in an imperial project that will not be typified by territorial conquest, but by “road building”. This is done to bring commodities to the heart of the empire at the cheapest cost, while higher value-added finished goods are pushed out to its outer realms. It is no coincidence that a common saying for Europeans is that “all roads lead to Rome’”.
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Thomas Gatley, Rosealea Yao, Wei He
Aug 14th 2020
Another Leg Up For Growth
After plateauing in Q2, China’s economic activity is stepping up in Q3, powered by demand in housing, infrastructure and exports, and a lessening drag in consumer services. In this Quick Take, Thomas, Rosealea and Wei explain how these factors will assist the country as it continues down its path back to economic normalcy.
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