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Gavekal Dragonomics
Research Team
Apr 14th 2008
DragonWeek 2008 Apr 14th
This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2008-04-14.You can download it here: 0420_DragonWeek_080414.pdf
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Gavekal Research
Louis Gave
Apr 11th 2008
China: Up, Down or Sideways?
This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2008-04-11.You can download it here: ChinaUpDownorSideways.pdf
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Gavekal Research
Arthur Kroeber
Apr 11th 2008
China: Up, Down or Sideways?
This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2008-04-11.You can download it here: ChinaUpDownorSideways1.pdf
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Research Team
Apr 08th 2008
DragonWeek 2008 Apr 8th
This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2008-04-08.You can download it here: 0419_DragonWeek_080408.pdf
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Research Team
Apr 02nd 2008
DragonWeek 2008 Apr 2nd
This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2008-04-02.You can download it here: 0418_DragonWeek_080402.pdf
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Arthur Kroeber
Mar 31st 2008
The End Of The Anti-gravity Economy
Everybody in China is thinking about inflation, and there are two stories to choose from. Story number one (which is the position of the Chinese government but also has some support from respectable independent economists) is that the high inflation of the past six months is mainly a temporary phenomenon, caused by supply shocks that have driven up the prices of a handful of common food items, notably pork, eggs and edible oil. Once these supply...
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Research Team
Mar 24th 2008
DragonWeek 2008 Mar 24th
This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2008-03-24.You can download it here: 0416_DragonWeek_0803242.pdf
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Gavekal Research
Research Team
Mar 19th 2008
Construction Quarterly - Q1 2008
China real estate and construction market review: March 2008
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Research Team
Mar 18th 2008
DragonWeek 2008 Mar 18th
This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2008-03-18.You can download it here: 0415_DragonWeek_080318.pdf
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Michael Komesaroff
Mar 18th 2008
China's Winter Storms And The Coal Market
Power shortages are back. After nearly three years during which power supply seemed to keep up with demand, 17 provinces are now facing electricity shortfalls. One cannot blame the problem on a failure to invest in new power generation capacity. In 2007, Chinese companies commissioned 91 gigawatts in net new generating capacity, more than the total installed capacity of the United Kingdom. In 2006 they installed 106 GW – nearly France’s entire...
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Research Team
Mar 10th 2008
DragonWeek 2008 Mar 10
This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2008-03-10.You can download it here: 0413_DragonWeek_0803101.pdf
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Gavekal Research
Charles Gave
Mar 10th 2008
The Five Infrastucture Investment Phases
This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2008-03-10.You can download it here: THeFIveInfrastuctureInvestmentPhases.pdf
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Research Team
Mar 07th 2008
CEQ Q1 2008 - China and the US
CEQ Q1 2008: China and the US
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Research Team
Mar 07th 2008
CEQ Q1 2008 - Economy
CEQ Q1 2008: Economy
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Research Team
Mar 07th 2008
China Economic Quarterly March 2008 - China and the US
China Economic Quarterly Q4 2008: China and the US
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Research Team
Mar 07th 2008
CEQ Q1 2008 - Balance of Power
CEQ Q1 2008: Balance of power
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Research Team
Mar 07th 2008
CEQ Q1 2008 - Sino-US psychology
CEQ Q1 2008: Sino-US psychology
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Research Team
Mar 07th 2008
CEQ Q1 2008 - China and the world
CEQ Q1 2008: China and the world
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Research Team
Mar 07th 2008
CEQ Q1 2008 - Cement
CEQ Q1 2008: Cement
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Research Team
Mar 07th 2008
CEQ Q1 2008 - Telecoms
CEQ Q1 2008: Telecoms
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Research Team
Mar 07th 2008
CEQ Q1 2008 - Books: Six of the best - and worst
CEQ Q1 2008: Books
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Gavekal Research
Arthur Kroeber
Mar 07th 2008
Dragonomics Book Review - China Into the Future -
This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2008-03-07.You can download it here: GKFiveCorners09050512.pdf
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Gavekal Research
Research Team
Mar 06th 2008
Thursday March 6th, 2008
This document is part of our old archive. You can download it by clicking the PDF button above.
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Research Team
Mar 04th 2008
DragonWeek 2008 Mar 4
This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2008-03-04.You can download it here: 0403_DragonWeek_0803041.pdf
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Arthur Kroeber, Research Team
Feb 26th 2008
DragonWeek 2008 Feb 26
This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2008-02-26.You can download it here: 0402_Dragonweek_080226.pdf
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Arthur Kroeber
Feb 22nd 2008
The Long Squeeze
In our last note we argued, at perhaps excessive length, that China is undergoing a secular shift from an era in which structural economic reform was the paramount objective to one in which governance reform is the priority. In this note we will try to tease out some of the long-run economic and investment consequences of this shift. The central case is that over the next five or ten years we will see a “long squeeze” during which capital and...
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Gavekal Research
Louis Gave
Feb 22nd 2008
China’s Coming Out Party & Inventories
This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2008-02-22.You can download it here: ChinasComingOutPartyInventories1.pdf
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Gavekal Research
Arthur Kroeber, Rosealea Yao, Research Team
Feb 15th 2008
China Trade Review - February 2008
China trade review - February 2008
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Gavekal Research
Louis Gave
Feb 15th 2008
2Q08 - Quarterly Strategy Chart Book: Picking-Up the Pieces From the Credit Crunch
This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2008-02-15.You can download it here: 2Q08QuarterlyStrategyChartBookPickingUpthePiecesFr.pdf
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Arthur Kroeber
Feb 13th 2008
Seismic Shift: Economics Gives Way To Politics
The year of the rat, which China has just entered, marks the beginning of the 12-year zodiac cycle. In that spirit we step back from the everyday ups and downs of the economic cycle to argue that China’s political economy is in the midst of an important long-run transition. Today’s note analyzes the nature of that transition. We apologize in advance for the length and philosophical nature of this tome, and for the relative absence of pictures. A...
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Gavekal Research
Research Team
Feb 12th 2008
Macro Quarterly - Q1 2008
China economic outlook: Febuary 2008
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Gavekal Research
Louis Gave
Feb 11th 2008
The Baltic Roller-Coaster
This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2008-02-11.You can download it here: TheBalticRollerCoaster.pdf
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Research Team
Feb 04th 2008
DragonWeek 2008 Feb 4
This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2008-02-04.You can download it here: 0399_DragonWeek_080204.pdf
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Gavekal Research
Louis Gave
Feb 04th 2008
The Circle of Manipulation Comes to an End
This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2008-02-04.You can download it here: TheCircleofManipulationComestoanEnd1.pdf
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Research Team
Jan 24th 2008
DragonWeek Extra: China's Economic Performance 2007
This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2008-01-24.You can download it here: 0397_DragonWeek_080124.pdf
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Gavekal Research
Louis Gave
Jan 11th 2008
GaveKal Purchases a 50% Stake in Dragonomics
This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2008-01-11.You can download it here: GaveKalPurchasesa50StakeinDragonomics.pdf
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Gavekal Research
Arthur Kroeber
Dec 14th 2007
A Review of the Latest Chinese Policy Moves
This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2007-12-14.You can download it here: AReviewoftheLatestChinesePolicyMoves1.pdf
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Gavekal Research
Arthur Kroeber, Rosealea Yao, Research Team
Dec 12th 2007
Real Estate and Construction Quarterly Outlook - 2007 Q4
This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2007-12-12.You can download it here: 02_ConstructionRealEstate_2007q4.pdf
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Research Team
Dec 07th 2007
China Economic Quarterly December 2007 - Media China
China Economic Quarterly Q4 2007: Media China
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Research Team
Dec 07th 2007
CEQ Q4 2007 - Economy
CEQ Q4 2007: Economy
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Research Team
Dec 07th 2007
CEQ Q4 2007 - Film and TV
CEQ Q4 2007: Film and TV
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Research Team
Dec 07th 2007
CEQ Q4 2007 - Online media
CEQ Q4 2007: Online media
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Will Freeman, Research Team
Dec 07th 2007
CEQ Q4 2007 - Music
CEQ Q4 2007: Music
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Research Team
Dec 07th 2007
CEQ Q4 2007 - Magazines
CEQ Q4 2007: Magazines
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Research Team
Dec 07th 2007
CEQ Q4 2007 - Regional development
CEQ Q4 2007: Regional development
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Research Team
Dec 07th 2007
CEQ Q4 2007 - Productivity
CEQ Q4 2007: Productivity
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Arthur Kroeber, Rosealea Yao
Dec 07th 2007
CEQ Q4 2007 - Housing: A Room Of One's Own
After several false starts in the early 1990s, China undertook a massive privatizationof its public housing stock in 1998, which was largely complete by the end of 2003.The impact of this reform on China’s subsequent economic development appearsto have been enormous. Enterprises received an immediate cash infusion and werefreed from the costly burden of building housing for their employees. Employees gotan implicit subsidy when they bought...
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Gavekal Research
Charles Gave, Louis Gave
Dec 06th 2007
Drivers and Opportunities Behind China's Growth
This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2007-12-06.You can download it here: DriversandOpportunitiesBehindChinasGrowth.pdf
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Gavekal Research
Anatole Kaletsky, Arthur Kroeber, Louis Gave, Research Team
Dec 04th 2007
Quarterly Strategy Chart Book - 4Q07
This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2007-12-04.You can download it here: QuarterlyStrategyChartBook-4Q071.pdf
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Research Team
Dec 03rd 2007
DragonWeek 2007 Dec 3rd
This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2007-12-03.You can download it here: 0381_DragonWeek_071203.pdf
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Arthur Kroeber
Nov 28th 2007
Exports: The Icing On The Cake Gets Thinner
For much of the past year we have reassured readers that China need not fear a slowdown or recession in the US economy. Now American recession fears are growing, and Chinese exports to the US are slowing sharply. Are we worried? Not really. Net exports, it is always worth remembering, are the icing on the Chinese economic cake. Depending on external demand, the layer of icing may be thicker or thinner. But the cake itself – whose size is...
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Gavekal Research
Arthur Kroeber
Nov 28th 2007
The Export Icing Gets Thinner
This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2007-11-28.You can download it here: TheExportIcingGetsThinner.pdf
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Research Team
Nov 26th 2007
DragonWeek 2007 Nov 26th
This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2007-11-26.You can download it here: 0380_DragonWeek_071126.pdf
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Gavekal Research
Research Team
Nov 21st 2007
Energy Inflation or Demand Deflation?
This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2007-11-21.You can download it here: EnergyInflationorDemandDeflation1.pdf
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Research Team
Nov 19th 2007
DragonWeek 2007 Nov 19th
This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2007-11-19.You can download it here: 0379_DragonWeek_071119.pdf
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Gavekal Research
Louis Gave
Nov 16th 2007
China's Accelerating Inflation
This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2007-11-16.You can download it here: ChinasAcceleratingInflation.pdf
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Arthur Kroeber, Research Team
Nov 13th 2007
Macro Quarterly - Q4 2007
China economic outlook: November 2007
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Gavekal Research
Arthur Kroeber, Rosealea Yao, Research Team
Nov 06th 2007
China Trade Review - November 2007
China trade review - November 2007
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Gavekal Research
Louis Gave
Nov 02nd 2007
The Boring China Decouple Debate
This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2007-11-02.You can download it here: TheBoringChinaDecoupleDebate.pdf
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Gavekal Research
Louis Gave
Nov 02nd 2007
When Will the China Bubble Burst?
This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2007-11-02.You can download it here: WhenWilltheChinaBubbleBurst.pdf
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Gavekal Research
Arthur Kroeber
Oct 31st 2007
What We Learned from the Party Congress
This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2007-10-31.You can download it here: WhatWeLearnedfromthePartyCongress.pdf
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Gavekal Research
Arthur Kroeber, Research Team
Oct 27th 2007
China Insight - China's economic performance Q1-3 2007
China's economic performance Q1-3 2007
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Arthur Kroeber
Oct 25th 2007
What We Learned From The Party Congress
The Chinese Communist Party’s 17th Congress has concluded and the Politburo stocked with a new generation of leaders who will take over from the Hu Jintao / Wen Jiabao administration in 2012/2013. We advise readers to forget what they read in the press about the horse-races among various interchangeable commissars. The course of the ship of state is fairly well set regardless of where any particular deckhand gets assigned. We also counsel...
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Gavekal Research
Pierre Gave
Oct 18th 2007
How Long Will HK Small Caps Underperform?
This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2007-10-18.You can download it here: HowLongWillHKSmallCapsUnderperform.pdf
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Gavekal Research
Charles Gave, Louis Gave, Pierre Gave, Joyce Poon, Research Team
Oct 05th 2007
Strategy Review
This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2007-10-05.You can download it here: StrategyReview.pdf
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Arthur Kroeber
Sep 27th 2007
Chinese Inflation (II): The Facts, Or As Close As We Can Get To Them
Our previous note introduced our main ideas about Chinese inflation. Today we do our best to justify our cyclical views with data. Data problems aside, the key points are:
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Gavekal Research
Arthur Kroeber
Sep 26th 2007
A Dummy's Guide to Chinese Inflation
This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2007-09-26.You can download it here: ADummysGuidetoChineseInflation.pdf
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Arthur Kroeber
Sep 25th 2007
Chinese Inflation (I): A Dummy's Guide
Inflation is the risk that looms over every fast-growing economy. With China’s CPI having surged from 2.2% in January to 6.5% in August, it seems that this risk has finally materialized and that the five-year party of double-digit GDP growth and no inflation is finally over. Or is it?
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Gavekal Research
Louis Gave
Sep 24th 2007
China's Runaway Train
This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2007-09-24.You can download it here: ChinasRunawayTrain.pdf
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Francesco Sisci
Sep 05th 2007
From Taxation To Representation
China’s authoritarian state has long had a pact of “no taxation, no representation” with its middle class. Unfortunately, this pact cannot last. To pay for a welfare system that can sustain domestic demand, the tax take must rise. Most of that increase will be paid by the private sector, which will create demands for greater accountability.
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Research Team
Sep 01st 2007
China Economic Quarterly September 2007 - Health care
China Economic Quarterly Q3 2007: Health care
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Gavekal Research
Research Team
Sep 01st 2007
Health care survey
This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2007-09-01.You can download it here: 0365_ceq2007q3_02healthcare.pdf
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Research Team
Sep 01st 2007
CEQ Q3 2007 - Economy
CEQ Q3 2007: Economy
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Research Team
Sep 01st 2007
CEQ Q3 2007 - Get the problem straight
CEQ Q3 2007: Get the problem straight
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Research Team
Sep 01st 2007
CEQ Q3 2007 - Primary care
CEQ Q3 2007: Primary care
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Research Team
Sep 01st 2007
CEQ Q3 2007 - Health care finance
CEQ Q3 2007: Health care finance
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Research Team
Sep 01st 2007
CEQ Q3 2007 - Pharmaceuticals
CEQ Q3 2007: Pharmaceuticals
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Research Team
Sep 01st 2007
CEQ Q3 2007 - From Taxation To Representation
We often think of democracy in terms of procedures (elections) or ideals (liberty). But really democracy is something more practical: a way of managing clashes of interests. The need for democracy becomes increasingly apparent when the number of powerful interest groups multiplies, and in particular when the state’s tax demands on these groups increase and demands for accountability in the use of these tax funds rise. In both England and France...
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Research Team
Sep 01st 2007
CEQ Q3 2007 - Pensions I
CEQ Q3 2007: Pensions I
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Research Team
Sep 01st 2007
CEQ Q3 2007 - Pensions II
CEQ Q3 2007: Pensions II
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Research Team
Sep 01st 2007
CEQ Q3 2007 - Eco-towns
CEQ Q3 2007: Eco-towns
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Gavekal Research
Louis Gave
Aug 30th 2007
Quarterly Strategy Chart Book - When The Facts Change
This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2007-08-30.You can download it here: QuarterlyStrategyChartBookWhenTheFactsChange.pdf
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Gavekal Research
Louis Gave
Aug 28th 2007
Another Reason We Remain Bullish on Asian Equities
This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2007-08-28.You can download it here: AnotherReasonWeRemainBullishonAsianEquities.pdf
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Gavekal Research
Arthur Kroeber
Aug 23rd 2007
A Stake Through the Heart of China Sceptics
This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2007-08-23.You can download it here: AStakeThroughtheHeartofChinaSceptics.pdf
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Arthur Kroeber
Aug 20th 2007
Four Lessons From Toxic Exports
Last week was a bad one for China Inc., which used to be known as the world’s biggest maker of cheap stuff and is now known as the world’s biggest maker of cheap and dangerous stuff. Yet the real lesson that we should take away from the spate of toxic Chinese exports is that the globalization of production chains calls for smarter regulation in rich countries.
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Gavekal Research
Arthur Kroeber
Aug 17th 2007
The Incredible Shrinking FX Fund
This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2007-08-17.You can download it here: TheIncredibleShrinkingFXFund.pdf
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Arthur Kroeber
Aug 16th 2007
The Incredible Shrinking FX Fund
It is time to calm down about China’s State Investment Co. (SIC), which made its debut this spring with a ballyhooed US$3bn pre-IPO investment in US private equity firm Blackstone. The fund’s main initial purpose seems to be to act as a holding company for the government’s investments in the domestic financial sector. By the end of this year these investments will have consumed nearly two-thirds of SIC’s initial US$200bn funding, leaving a...
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Gavekal Research
Louis Gave
Jul 27th 2007
The Changing Liquidity Environment
This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2007-07-27.You can download it here: TheChangingLiquidityEnvironment.pdf
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Gavekal Research
Arthur Kroeber
Jul 20th 2007
Three Flavors of Protectionism
This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2007-07-20.You can download it here: ThreeFlavorsofProtectionism.pdf
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Gavekal Research
Arthur Kroeber, Research Team
Jul 19th 2007
China Insight - China's economic performance H1 2007
China's economic performance H1 2007
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Arthur Kroeber
Jul 18th 2007
Three Flavors Of Protectionism
China’s economy now depends on external demand to a degree unprecedented in the past three decades. Does this dependence create vulnerability to protectionism in key markets, especially the US? Not really. Despite trade’s increased importance, the Chinese economy is driven, as it always has been, mainly by domestic factors. Moreover the constituencies for traditional protectionism of goods are slowly dying off in all the advanced economies. This...
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Gavekal Research
Louis Gave
Jun 21st 2007
A New Kind of Protectionism
This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2007-06-21.You can download it here: ANewKindofProtectionism1.pdf
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Gavekal Research
Arthur Kroeber
Jun 21st 2007
China's Equity Bubble is Not Retail Driven
This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2007-06-21.You can download it here: ChinasEquityBubbleisNotRetailDriven.pdf
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Gavekal Research
Anatole Kaletsky, Louis Gave
Jun 13th 2007
A Brief Review of Our Internal Discussions
This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2007-06-13.You can download it here: ABriefReviewofOurInternalDiscussions.pdf
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Research Team
Jun 01st 2007
China Economic Quarterly June 2007 - Dragon abroad
China Economic Quarterly Q2 2007: Dragon abroad
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Research Team
Jun 01st 2007
CEQ Q2 2007 - Economy
CEQ Q2 2007: Economy
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Research Team
Jun 01st 2007
CEQ Q2 2007 - Foreign policy
CEQ Q2 2007: Foreign policy
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Research Team
Jun 01st 2007
CEQ Q2 2007 - Africa
CEQ Q2 2007: Africa
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Research Team
Jun 01st 2007
CEQ Q2 2007 - Russia
CEQ Q2 2007: Russia
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Gavekal Dragonomics
Arthur Kroeber, Research Team
Jun 01st 2007
CEQ Q2 2007 - Latin America
CEQ Q2 2007: Latin America
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