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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek 2008 June 9th

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2008-06-09.You can download it here: 0444_DragonWeek_080609.pdf

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    China Economic Quarterly June 2008 - State-owned Enterprises

    A decade ago China’s state-owned enterprises threatenedthe entire economy. Today they are fantastically profitable andand moving aggressively into global markets. What happened? This issue of the China Economic Quarterly digs into the revival of China's state sector to find out how much has really changed, and why.

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    Gavekal Research

    GaveKal Daily - Questions Plaguing China

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2008-06-03.You can download it here: GaveKalDailyQuestionsPlaguingChina.pdf

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek 2008 June 2nd

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2008-06-02.You can download it here: 0428_DragonWeek_080602.pdf

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek 2008 May 27th

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2008-05-30.You can download it here: 0427_DragonWeek_0805271.pdf

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek 2008 May 20th

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2008-05-20.You can download it here: 0426_DragonWeek_0805201.pdf

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek 2008 May 20th

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2008-05-20.You can download it here: 0426_DragonWeek_0805202.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    A Roadmap for Troubling Times--by Louis-Vincent Gave

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2008-05-20.You can download it here: ARoadmapforTroublingTimesbyLouisVincentGave.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    Quarterly Strategy Chart Book - 3Q08 - The Purpose of a Bear Market

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2008-05-15.You can download it here: QuarterlyStrategyChartBook3Q08ThePurposeofaBearMar1.pdf

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek 2008 May 12th

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2008-05-12.You can download it here: 0425_DragonWeek_080512.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    Macro Quarterly - Q2 2008

    China economic outlook: June 2008

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    Gavekal Research

    New Valuation Tools

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2008-05-06.You can download it here: NewValuationTools1.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    Reasons the Market Feels Good About Taiwan

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2008-05-01.You can download it here: ReasonstheMarketFeelsGoodAboutTaiwan.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    Dragonomics office closure

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2008-04-30.You can download it here: Holiday closure.pdf

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek 2008 Apr 28th

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2008-04-28.You can download it here: 0424_DragonWeek_080428.pdf

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    China's Pathological Stock Market

    Thanks to the ministrations of the China Stockmarket Rah-rah Clique (CSRC, formerly the China Securities Regulatory Commission), A-shares are hot again. Foreign investors are queuing up to get hold of the US$20bn in additional allocations for qualified foreign institutional investors which were approved for release last December. The purpose of this note is to let foreigners know what they are getting into

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    Gavekal Research

    Watch Out for the Container Squeeze

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2008-04-25.You can download it here: WatchOurfortheContainerSqueeze.pdf

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek 2008 Apr 21st

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2008-04-21.You can download it here: 0422_DragonWeek_080421.pdf

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek 2008 Apr 16th

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2008-04-16.You can download it here: 0421_DragonWeek_080416.pdf

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek 2008 Apr 14th

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2008-04-14.You can download it here: 0420_DragonWeek_080414.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    China: Up, Down or Sideways?

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2008-04-11.You can download it here: ChinaUpDownorSideways.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    China: Up, Down or Sideways?

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2008-04-11.You can download it here: ChinaUpDownorSideways1.pdf

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek 2008 Apr 8th

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2008-04-08.You can download it here: 0419_DragonWeek_080408.pdf

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek 2008 Apr 2nd

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2008-04-02.You can download it here: 0418_DragonWeek_080402.pdf

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The End Of The Anti-gravity Economy

    Everybody in China is thinking about inflation, and there are two stories to choose from. Story number one (which is the position of the Chinese government but also has some support from respectable independent economists) is that the high inflation of the past six months is mainly a temporary phenomenon, caused by supply shocks that have driven up the prices of a handful of common food items, notably pork, eggs and edible oil. Once these supply...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek 2008 Mar 24th

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2008-03-24.You can download it here: 0416_DragonWeek_0803242.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    Construction Quarterly - Q1 2008

    China real estate and construction market review: March 2008

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek 2008 Mar 18th

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2008-03-18.You can download it here: 0415_DragonWeek_080318.pdf

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    China's Winter Storms And The Coal Market

    Power shortages are back. After nearly three years during which power supply seemed to keep up with demand, 17 provinces are now facing electricity shortfalls. One cannot blame the problem on a failure to invest in new power generation capacity. In 2007, Chinese companies commissioned 91 gigawatts in net new generating capacity, more than the total installed capacity of the United Kingdom. In 2006 they installed 106 GW – nearly France’s entire...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek 2008 Mar 10

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2008-03-10.You can download it here: 0413_DragonWeek_0803101.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    The Five Infrastucture Investment Phases

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2008-03-10.You can download it here: THeFIveInfrastuctureInvestmentPhases.pdf

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q1 2008 - China and the US

    CEQ Q1 2008: China and the US

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q1 2008 - Economy

    CEQ Q1 2008: Economy

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    China Economic Quarterly March 2008 - China and the US

    China Economic Quarterly Q4 2008: China and the US

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q1 2008 - Balance of Power

    CEQ Q1 2008: Balance of power

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q1 2008 - Sino-US psychology

    CEQ Q1 2008: Sino-US psychology

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q1 2008 - China and the world

    CEQ Q1 2008: China and the world

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q1 2008 - Cement

    CEQ Q1 2008: Cement

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q1 2008 - Telecoms

    CEQ Q1 2008: Telecoms

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q1 2008 - Books: Six of the best - and worst

    CEQ Q1 2008: Books

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    Gavekal Research

    Dragonomics Book Review - China Into the Future -

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2008-03-07.You can download it here: GKFiveCorners09050512.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    Thursday March 6th, 2008

    This document is part of our old archive. You can download it by clicking the PDF button above.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek 2008 Mar 4

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2008-03-04.You can download it here: 0403_DragonWeek_0803041.pdf

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek 2008 Feb 26

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2008-02-26.You can download it here: 0402_Dragonweek_080226.pdf

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    The Long Squeeze

    In our last note we argued, at perhaps excessive length, that China is undergoing a secular shift from an era in which structural economic reform was the paramount objective to one in which governance reform is the priority. In this note we will try to tease out some of the long-run economic and investment consequences of this shift. The central case is that over the next five or ten years we will see a “long squeeze” during which capital and...

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    Gavekal Research

    China’s Coming Out Party & Inventories

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2008-02-22.You can download it here: ChinasComingOutPartyInventories1.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    China Trade Review - February 2008

    China trade review - February 2008

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    Gavekal Research

    2Q08 - Quarterly Strategy Chart Book: Picking-Up the Pieces From the Credit Crunch

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2008-02-15.You can download it here: 2Q08QuarterlyStrategyChartBookPickingUpthePiecesFr.pdf

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Seismic Shift: Economics Gives Way To Politics

    The year of the rat, which China has just entered, marks the beginning of the 12-year zodiac cycle. In that spirit we step back from the everyday ups and downs of the economic cycle to argue that China’s political economy is in the midst of an important long-run transition. Today’s note analyzes the nature of that transition. We apologize in advance for the length and philosophical nature of this tome, and for the relative absence of pictures. A...

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    Gavekal Research

    Macro Quarterly - Q1 2008

    China economic outlook: Febuary 2008

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    Gavekal Research

    The Baltic Roller-Coaster

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2008-02-11.You can download it here: TheBalticRollerCoaster.pdf

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek 2008 Feb 4

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2008-02-04.You can download it here: 0399_DragonWeek_080204.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    The Circle of Manipulation Comes to an End

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2008-02-04.You can download it here: TheCircleofManipulationComestoanEnd1.pdf

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek Extra: China's Economic Performance 2007

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2008-01-24.You can download it here: 0397_DragonWeek_080124.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    GaveKal Purchases a 50% Stake in Dragonomics

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2008-01-11.You can download it here: GaveKalPurchasesa50StakeinDragonomics.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    A Review of the Latest Chinese Policy Moves

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2007-12-14.You can download it here: AReviewoftheLatestChinesePolicyMoves1.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    Real Estate and Construction Quarterly Outlook - 2007 Q4

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2007-12-12.You can download it here: 02_ConstructionRealEstate_2007q4.pdf

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    China Economic Quarterly December 2007 - Media China

    China Economic Quarterly Q4 2007: Media China

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q4 2007 - Economy

    CEQ Q4 2007: Economy

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q4 2007 - Film and TV

    CEQ Q4 2007: Film and TV

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q4 2007 - Online media

    CEQ Q4 2007: Online media

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q4 2007 - Music

    CEQ Q4 2007: Music

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q4 2007 - Magazines

    CEQ Q4 2007: Magazines

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q4 2007 - Regional development

    CEQ Q4 2007: Regional development

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q4 2007 - Productivity

    CEQ Q4 2007: Productivity

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q4 2007 - Housing: A Room Of One's Own

    After several false starts in the early 1990s, China undertook a massive privatizationof its public housing stock in 1998, which was largely complete by the end of 2003.The impact of this reform on China’s subsequent economic development appearsto have been enormous. Enterprises received an immediate cash infusion and werefreed from the costly burden of building housing for their employees. Employees gotan implicit subsidy when they bought...

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    Gavekal Research

    Drivers and Opportunities Behind China's Growth

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2007-12-06.You can download it here: DriversandOpportunitiesBehindChinasGrowth.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    Quarterly Strategy Chart Book - 4Q07

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2007-12-04.You can download it here: QuarterlyStrategyChartBook-4Q071.pdf

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek 2007 Dec 3rd

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2007-12-03.You can download it here: 0381_DragonWeek_071203.pdf

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Exports: The Icing On The Cake Gets Thinner

    For much of the past year we have reassured readers that China need not fear a slowdown or recession in the US economy. Now American recession fears are growing, and Chinese exports to the US are slowing sharply. Are we worried? Not really. Net exports, it is always worth remembering, are the icing on the Chinese economic cake. Depending on external demand, the layer of icing may be thicker or thinner. But the cake itself – whose size is...

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    Gavekal Research

    The Export Icing Gets Thinner

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2007-11-28.You can download it here: TheExportIcingGetsThinner.pdf

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek 2007 Nov 26th

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2007-11-26.You can download it here: 0380_DragonWeek_071126.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    Energy Inflation or Demand Deflation?

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2007-11-21.You can download it here: EnergyInflationorDemandDeflation1.pdf

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    DragonWeek 2007 Nov 19th

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2007-11-19.You can download it here: 0379_DragonWeek_071119.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    China's Accelerating Inflation

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2007-11-16.You can download it here: ChinasAcceleratingInflation.pdf

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Macro Quarterly - Q4 2007

    China economic outlook: November 2007

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    Gavekal Research

    China Trade Review - November 2007

    China trade review - November 2007

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    Gavekal Research

    The Boring China Decouple Debate

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2007-11-02.You can download it here: TheBoringChinaDecoupleDebate.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    When Will the China Bubble Burst?

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2007-11-02.You can download it here: WhenWilltheChinaBubbleBurst.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    What We Learned from the Party Congress

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2007-10-31.You can download it here: WhatWeLearnedfromthePartyCongress.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    China Insight - China's economic performance Q1-3 2007

    China's economic performance Q1-3 2007

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    What We Learned From The Party Congress

    The Chinese Communist Party’s 17th Congress has concluded and the Politburo stocked with a new generation of leaders who will take over from the Hu Jintao / Wen Jiabao administration in 2012/2013. We advise readers to forget what they read in the press about the horse-races among various interchangeable commissars. The course of the ship of state is fairly well set regardless of where any particular deckhand gets assigned. We also counsel...

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    Gavekal Research

    How Long Will HK Small Caps Underperform?

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2007-10-18.You can download it here: HowLongWillHKSmallCapsUnderperform.pdf

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    Gavekal Research

    Strategy Review

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2007-10-05.You can download it here: StrategyReview.pdf

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Chinese Inflation (II): The Facts, Or As Close As We Can Get To Them

    Our previous note introduced our main ideas about Chinese inflation. Today we do our best to justify our cyclical views with data. Data problems aside, the key points are:

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    Gavekal Research

    A Dummy's Guide to Chinese Inflation

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2007-09-26.You can download it here: ADummysGuidetoChineseInflation.pdf

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    Chinese Inflation (I): A Dummy's Guide

    Inflation is the risk that looms over every fast-growing economy. With China’s CPI having surged from 2.2% in January to 6.5% in August, it seems that this risk has finally materialized and that the five-year party of double-digit GDP growth and no inflation is finally over. Or is it?

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    Gavekal Research

    China's Runaway Train

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2007-09-24.You can download it here: ChinasRunawayTrain.pdf

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    From Taxation To Representation

    China’s authoritarian state has long had a pact of “no taxation, no representation” with its middle class. Unfortunately, this pact cannot last. To pay for a welfare system that can sustain domestic demand, the tax take must rise. Most of that increase will be paid by the private sector, which will create demands for greater accountability.

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    China Economic Quarterly September 2007 - Health care

    China Economic Quarterly Q3 2007: Health care

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    Gavekal Research

    Health care survey

    This document is part of our old archive. It was published on 2007-09-01.You can download it here: 0365_ceq2007q3_02healthcare.pdf

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q3 2007 - Economy

    CEQ Q3 2007: Economy

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q3 2007 - Get the problem straight

    CEQ Q3 2007: Get the problem straight

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q3 2007 - Primary care

    CEQ Q3 2007: Primary care

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q3 2007 - Health care finance

    CEQ Q3 2007: Health care finance

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q3 2007 - Pharmaceuticals

    CEQ Q3 2007: Pharmaceuticals

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q3 2007 - From Taxation To Representation

    We often think of democracy in terms of procedures (elections) or ideals (liberty). But really democracy is something more practical: a way of managing clashes of interests. The need for democracy becomes increasingly apparent when the number of powerful interest groups multiplies, and in particular when the state’s tax demands on these groups increase and demands for accountability in the use of these tax funds rise. In both England and France...

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q3 2007 - Pensions I

    CEQ Q3 2007: Pensions I

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    CEQ Q3 2007 - Pensions II

    CEQ Q3 2007: Pensions II

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    Gavekal Dragonomics

    CEQ Q3 2007 - Eco-towns

    CEQ Q3 2007: Eco-towns

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